Champions League Odds 2026: How Do Betting Favorites Look Entering Knockout Stage?

Arsenal not only finished the group stage as the Champions League odds favorite, but it will enter the knockout phase as the only team to win every match. 

Bayern Munich also completed the opening round on a strong note by beating PSV on the road, thanks to a late Harry Kane winner. They are trading as the second-most likely team to win the competition. Friday's playoff draw is the next marquee event, followed by playoff aggregates to determine which teams will join the eight who secured automatic qualification into the Round of 16.

So, which of the betting favorites should you fade, and who offers the best futures pick? 

🏆 Champions League odds 2026

Odds via FanDuel, one of the best sports betting apps. 

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Why fade Champions League odds favorite Arsenal

I'm fading Arsenal for two reasons, neither of which focuses on their current domestic form. The Gunners have struggled recently and are winless in the last three Premier League outings, losing at home for the first time in 12 matches.

However, the Round of 16 doesn't take place until mid-March, so there is almost no chance their current sour patch will extend for that long.

I'm more concerned about their lack of experience in the final stages of the Champions League, with last season's semifinal berth the deepest run in 17 years.

When it comes to home and away aggregate at that stage of the competition, I have more faith in well-versed squads like Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, and even Man City.  

I'm also dissuaded by their +360 Champions League odds, which don't offer enough value. 

🇩🇪 Why bet on Bayern Munich

Bayern Munich has been there or thereabouts in recent seasons, crashing out in last year's quarterfinals due to inopportune injuries to influential players. They deserved better in the previous season, controversially losing to Real Madrid in the semifinal.  

Those battle scars will serve Harry Kane and Co. well as they enter the business end of the tournament. It helps that they're Europe's in-form team, having lost just twice in 26 Bundesliga and seven Champions League matches. 

Leading Borussia Dortmund by eight points, Bayern Munich has a larger domestic buffer than Arsenal, Barcelona, PSG, and Inter Milan. While that can have a negative impact, I believe the opposite is true for Bayern Munich, which can prioritize the Champions League.

Most of the other betting favorites, including Man City, Liverpool, and Real Madrid, will be fighting doggedly for every point in their respective domestic league. I also backed Bayern Munich to win in my Champions League predictions. 

And if you can't appreciate this poetry in motion, you must be having a worse day than the team that will be forced to face Bayern Munich in the Round of 16: 

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Why back Pep's Man City 

Man City is renowned for turning it on down the stretch, and despite playing mediocre football across all competitions, they are right in the mix in the Champions League and Premier League. 

City has only three wins in the previous eight matches in all competitions, but are just four points behind Arsenal in the top flight and, with a win at home against Galatasaray, can still secure automatic qualification into the Champions League Round of 16.

If they are fortunate enough to receive an all-important bye, City's walking wounded will have more time to heal. Two key missing players, including John Stones and Ruben Dias, should be back to full strength for those critical encounters.

The Cityzens didn't rest on their laurels in the transfer window, signing Antoine Semenyo and Marc Guehi. They provide City with world-class options going forward and down the spine of the team. As if they needed any additional top-drawer players to call upon. 

🇫🇷 Why fade French champion PSG 

Can PSG become the first repeat champion since Real Madrid won three in a row from 2015 to 2018? I don't think so. 

While injuries have contributed significantly to their up-and-down recent stretch, I'm not convinced they can recapture last season's form that endeared them to the world.

Anything is possible in a home-and-away aggregate, and nobody would be mad enough to write off PSG, but I'd rather take my chances on two of the other three favorites among the top four.