Arsenal is the Champions League Odds Favorite at Prediction Markets, but Which Team Will Win?

According to the Champions League odds at prediction markets, Arsenal is the team to beat entering the knockout stage.  

That's what you get when you swat aside all comers and complete the group phase as the only team to win all eight matches. While Mikel Arteta's side deserves a rousing round of applause, are they the best choice? And if not, who is the best pick to win the Champions League? 

With the playoff draw occurring on Friday, excitement is about to ratchet up as I provide my go-to pick to win Europe's elite club competition. 

🆚 Who will Champions League at prediction markets?

Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.

According to Kalshi, Arsenal has the highest probability of winning the Champions League at 22%. That's unsurprising given their group-stage dominance, in which they ran the table as the only team to finish with a 100% winning record. The Yes price of 22 cents means a $100 investment would yield $355 in profit. 

According to our odds converter, Arsenal's American-style odds of winning are +355. 

The Gunners began the competition with an 11% chance of winning the tournament for the first time. Their highest percentage occurred on Nov. 27 (23.1%), thanks to a 3-1 win over Bayern Munich at Emirates Stadium. 

Speaking of Bayern Munich, they are the second-most likely team to win at 18%. The German giants peaked at 20.5% on Nov. 26, the day before they lost to Arsenal. The Yes price of 18 cents would yield a $456 profit on a $100 investment. 

The market has thus far drawn almost $4 million ($3,802,202) in volume. 

🇩🇪 Bayern Munich, the best pick to win 

Harry Kane ended his silverware drought last season, picking up the Bundesliga title. With 35 goals in 31 matches, including eight in eight Champions League games, he is on a mission to add to that lonesome trophy. 

His lethal form and outrageous goal tally have Bayern Munich as the in-form European team, with just two losses in 31 matches. They are also battle-tested, having lost in the quarterfinals of last year's competition and in the semifinals of the previous campaign.

They were decimated by injuries in last year's defeat to Inter Milan and fell to Real Madrid in one of the most controversial semifinals.

Arguably the best team in the world in front of its fans at the Allianz Arena, Bayern Munich suffered just one defeat in the last 25 home games in the competition. You already know about my feelings regarding that 2-1 defeat to Inter. The previous setback came in the 2021 quarterfinals to PSG. 

I'll make one final point: Bayern has the Bundesliga under control and can devote its undivided attention to this competition. Other contenders won't be so fortunate.  

📊 Champions League odds 2026

Here are the Champions League odds from Kalshi's prediction market. 

⚽ Champions League predictions market trading advice 

With the knockout stage on the horizon, there are a few key points to keep in mind before locking in your pick to win. 

• Don't over-analyze current form. A lot can change between now and the knockout stage
• Waiting until after Friday's playoff draw to buy shares in your team can be good or bad.
• For example, Real Madrid will either play Norwegian side Bodø/Glimt or Benfica. If they draw the Norwegian minnows, their Yes price will increase. If they draw Benfica, their Yes price will likely stay the same, or potentially decrease slightly 
• Take a close look at the bracket and prospective draw to find out your team's potential path 
• Selecting one of the 8 teams guaranteed Round of 16 action will avoid the possibility of being upset in the playoff round
• After Friday's draw, the Yes price for contenders shouldn't increase much in the lead-up to the playoff round. You might want to hold off and see how your selection is performing as they head into their aggregate series

What is Kalshi and how does it work?

Kalshi is a U.S.-regulated prediction market exchange, overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, where you trade on the outcome of real-world events by buying and selling simple contracts that pay out $1 if a specific result happens and $0 if it does not. Think of it like betting with a stock-market-style order book instead of a sportsbook.

For example, if you select Arsenal to win the Champions League, it would, at current prices, be a “Yes” contract at 22 cents, which implies a 22% chance.

If they win the competition, that contract settles at $1, meaning you make 78 cents per contract. If they lose, it settles at $0.

Prices move based on supply and demand as traders buy and sell, so the market itself reflects the crowd’s collective probability. Unlike traditional betting, you can sell your position early to lock in profit or cut losses, and the focus is on forecasting outcomes rather than beating a fixed house line.

How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?

Kalshi differs from sportsbooks because you are trading against other users in an open market, not betting against a house that sets and moves the line.

Prices are driven by supply and demand, you can exit positions early by selling, and odds are expressed as probabilities in cents rather than traditional spreads or moneylines. Sportsbooks, by contrast, offer fixed wagers with built-in vig and no ability to trade once the bet is placed.

Why should I wager on the Champions League winner at Kalshi?

Kalshi offers four unique advantages over traditional sportsbooks:

• Flexibility: Unlike a "locked-in" bet, you can sell your contract at any time.
• Transparency: You trade against other users, which can allow you to find better value.
• Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, transparent environment.
• Availability: Kalshi is available in many regions where traditional sportsbooks aren't yet legal.