Austria vs. Turkey Odds, Picks & Predictions: Dark Horses Meet on Day 19 of Euro 2024
Austria finished first in a group that included France and Netherlands, but will their impressive run continue in the round of 16? Here are our Austria vs. Turkey predictions based on the odds from our best soccer betting sites.
Only Germany scored more goals than Austria in the group stage. Ralf Rangnick’s side have won their last two games at the tournament, scoring six goals after a 1-0 defeat to France in their Group D opener.
This is the first time Turkey has reached the knockout rounds of the European Championships since their semifinal defeat to Germany at Euro 2008. The Turks are unbeaten in their last five competitive matches against Austria and have kept clean sheets against them in each of those contests.
However, Austria beat Turkey 6-1 in a friendly match as recently as March. Can they do it again as favorites on Tuesday?
Austria vs. Turkey predictions for Tuesday
- Final score: Austria 2 - Turkey 1 (+800 via bet365)
- Christoph Baumgartner anytime goal scorer (+250 via bet365)
- Best bet: Austria wins + Over 2.5 goals (+215 via DraftKings)
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Austria vs. Turkey score prediction
Austria 2 vs. Turkey 1
Both sides finished with six points in their respective groups. Turkey came second in Group F to Portugal on goal difference, and they’re coming up against an Austrian side that has won eight of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
Since Rangnick’s first game in charge two years ago, only Portugal (73%), Spain (67%), and Netherlands (64%) have a higher win percentage out of all European teams than Austria (60%), who have won 15 of their 25 matches under the German boss.
Turkey has been a threat at this tournament, with only Germany and Austria scoring more goals in the group stage. Their full-back Ferdi Kadioglu created more chances from open play than any other player in the opening three games of the competition (10).
Both defenses have been fallible throughout this tournament, so both offenses will have opportunities. Austria is the more potent side in front of goal, which could be decisive by the final whistle. At +800, bet365’s odds imply a probability of 11.1%, and a $10 wager would pay out a profit of $80 according to our odds converter.
Best odds: +800 via bet365
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Austria vs. Turkey anytime goal scorer prediction
Christoph Baumgartner, Austria
Baumgartner has been directly involved in nine goals in his last eight appearances for Austria (six goals, three assists). He’s scored and assisted at this tournament, becoming the first Austrian in 34 years to do so in a group stage, and the RB Leipzig forward scored against Turkey during Austria’s 6-1 friendly win in March.
The 24-year-old has 16 goals for his country since making his debut in 2020. Baumgartner was a constant threat against France in Austria’s opening match, with eight touches inside the box and two big chances created. His xG in that first game was 0.63. (For perspective, Austria’s total xG in the France game was 0.75.)
With winger Patrick Wimmer missing this game, Baumgartner is expected to start after being a substitute in the match with Netherlands. He’ll want to shine in Leipzig, where he plays his domestic club soccer in the Bundesliga. At +250, bet365's odds represent an implied probability of 28.6%, and a $10 wager pays out $25.
Best odds: +800 via bet365
Austria vs. Turkey best bet
Austria wins + Over 2.5 goals
Austria has scored 21 goals in their last 10 games, which averages at 2.1 goals per game. Turkey has also been effective in front of goal during that period, scoring 15 goals at an average of 1.5 goals per game. The Turks have kept just two cleans sheets during that run, which the red-hot Austrians could expose.
Only Austria and Germany scored more goals than Turkey during the group stage. Neither of these sides have kept a clean sheet at this tournament. Both teams have shown they can score, and we’re backing them to do so in this contest.
Austria’s impressive win rate under Rangnick tips this match in their favor. Turkey attacks without fear, which exposes them on defense. Form suggests that Austria advances in a closely contested knockout game. At +215, DraftKings’ odds imply a probability of 31.7% with a $10 wager resulting in a $21.50 profit.
Best odds: +215 via DraftKings
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Austria vs. Turkey game info
- When: Tuesday, July 2 at 3 p.m. ET
- Where: Leipzig Stadium (Leipzig, Germany)
- How to watch: FOX, Fubo
- Favorite: Austria (+100 via Caesars)
Austria-Turkey predictions made Sunday at 11:33 a.m. ET.
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