Weather Betting Guide: Can You Bet on the Weather?

Many of us check the weather forecast before we even check our text messages or email in the morning. What temperature can we expect today? Will it rain? The answers to these questions help shape our daily routines.

Weather betting simply prices these habits. Instead of trusting the accuracy of a weather app, you’re weighing a market’s odds on the temperature, potential snowfall, or a record-breaking heat day. 

Some of the best sports betting sites list these as novelty props, while regulated U.S. exchanges let you trade event contracts tied to official readings. The appeal of these prediction market apps is measurability: outcomes settle to real data, not opinions.

In this guide, we’ll show you how to bet on the weather the smart way: where to find markets, what drives prices, and a quick step-by-step to go from forecast to ticket without needing a meteorology degree.

We'll also introduce you to our favorite place to trade on weather outcomes: Kalshi.

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⛈️ How to bet on the weather

1. Pick a site to bet on: Choose a licensed sportsbook (novelty props) or a regulated event-contract exchange; create your account and fund it.
2. Select the market you want: Temperature range, precipitation total, or seasonal tally – confirm the station/location used for settlement.
3. Do your research: Read the market rules, check the official settlement source, and compare multiple forecasts/model runs for your date and city.
4. Place your bet or “trade:” Compare price to implied probability, size your stake, and submit.
5. Monitor and track: Watch observations and updates, verify settlement, and log outcomes to refine your approach.
6. Always remember to set a budget, avoid chasing losses, and treat wagering as entertainment — not income: Never play above your head.

☀️ Weather markets in the U.S.

In the U.S., where you can use this Kalshi promo code to sign up, the prediction market lists regulated weather event contracts you can trade — not “bet” — around measurable outcomes like daily highs, precipitation totals, seasonal patterns, and extreme events. Contracts settle to official National Weather Service (NWS) data the following morning.

How weather trading works on Kalshi

Kalshi’s weather markets let traders take a position on real-world climate outcomes, from daily temperatures in Denver to rainfall totals in New York. Instead of betting on a game or stock price, participants trade contracts tied to measurable weather data.

Each market is built around a simple yes-or-no question, such as “Will it rain in Miami today?”

If you believe it will, you can buy “Yes” contracts; if not, you can buy “No” contracts. As forecasts evolve, contract prices move up or down to reflect changing probabilities – much like odds shifting in a sportsbook or futures market.

When the event concludes, Kalshi settles the market using the NWS Daily Climate Report, which publishes the official high and low temperatures for each city. Results are typically finalized the following morning, ensuring every contract is based on verifiable government data rather than third-party weather apps.

In rare cases where preliminary NWS figures differ from later official data, or where readings conflict with local station reports (METAR), settlement may be delayed until the final report is confirmed.

It’s worth noting that apps such as Apple Weather, Google Weather, or AccuWeather may display different readings, but they do not determine Kalshi’s contract outcomes.

Kalshi weather markets: What you need to know

• Listing time: Markets typically launch at 10 a.m. local time the day before (e.g., June 20 market launches at 10 a.m. on June 19).
• Settlement: Uses the final NWS Daily Climate Report for that location’s official high; preliminary discrepancies can delay determination.
• DST nuance: NWS uses local standard time, so during Daylight Saving Time the daily window runs 1:00 a.m.–12:59 a.m. the next day, not midnight-to-midnight.
• Resolution site matters: NYC = Central Park; Chicago = Midway; Miami = Miami International Airport (MIA); Austin = Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (AUS). Always confirm the referenced station in the market rules.
• Why prices move: Forecast updates, model runs, observations, and satellite data shift the implied probability; brackets reprice as new info arrives.

❄️ Weather betting in Canada

In regulated provinces (e.g., Ontario), licensed sportsbooks sometimes post novelty weather markets — think temperature thresholds, snow on key holidays, or precipitation props. Availability is seasonal and operator-specific, so check what’s currently live.

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FanDuel occasionally offers limited-time weather props, often tied to seasonal moments or major events where conditions are part of the storyline. Expect pop-up markets rather than a permanent menu.

Examples include first snowfall in Toronto, Ottawa and Sudbury, which were offered in the fall of 2025, as well as the expected temperature on Canada Day.

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bet365 periodically lists novelty or specials markets, which can include weather outcomes like “White Christmas” or hot-day ranges. Expect rotation and short windows.

☔️ Tips for betting on the weather

Anchor to official sources

Markets settle to official readings (e.g., NWS climate reports). Third-party app numbers don’t decide outcomes, so verify against the source that the market references.

Compare multiple forecasts and models

Check more than one forecaster, then layer in global models (e.g., ECMWF, GFS). Look for consensus or intentional contrarian spots when models diverge and the market hasn’t caught up.

Understand microclimates and timing

Know the exact station (airport, park, urban core), sea-breeze effects, cloud cover, and late-day spikes. During DST, remember the 1:00 a.m.–12:59 a.m. window can snag an overnight high.

Advanced edge ideas inspired by real trading notes

• Bracket structure awareness: When the “consensus high” sits in a center bracket, scan adjacent brackets for mispriced pennies if models suggest a warmer/colder tail.
• Trend spotting: Smoke/haze, sea-breeze fronts, or lingering cloud decks can systematically bias highs below forecasts for days; pounce before repricing.
• Intraday feel: Watching obs? If temps are running hot vs. hourly, sun is full, and upper brackets are cheap, scaling small exposures can pay.
• Certainty bias: Penny-priced brackets aren’t always “dead.” If you can justify a path to win (front timing, cloud breaks), a micro-stake can have outsized EV.
• Red flags: If an entire bracket is 1¢ across, that’s often the market signaling it’s effectively eliminated under the posted rules.

⚡️ Popular Weather Betting Markets

Temperature markets

These focus on how warm or cold a location gets within a defined window (usually a calendar “day”). Common formats include Over/Under the daily high, exact-range brackets (e.g., 78–79.9°F), or “Will the high reach at least X°F?” Contracts resolve to an official observing station and time standard (e.g., local standard time) specified in the market rules.

Precipitation markets

Precipitation markets ask whether measurable rain or snow occurs and/or what the total amount will be over a set period (day, weekend, month). Some specify rainfall in inches/millimeters; others target snowfall accumulation. Resolution relies on readings from a named gauge or agency report. “Measurable” typically means a non-trace value defined in the rules.

Seasonal predictions

These cover outcomes tallied over a month or season rather than a single day. Examples include total winter snowfall, number of 90°F+ days, heating/cooling degree days, drought or rainfall totals, or named-storm counts. The contract settles after the period ends, using an official source (e.g., meteorological service or hurricane center) listed in the market documentation.

Weather-related events

Event markets resolve on a specific milestone: the first snowfall date, first freeze (≤32°F/0°C), earliest 95°F day, the year’s hottest day, or culturally defined outcomes like a White Christmas. The market names the exact location/station and what qualifies (e.g., trace vs. measurable). Settlement is based on the official report for that site.

☃️ When are weather betting markets available?

Some weather betting markets aren’t on the board year-round. Sportbooks surface these markets when seasonality or newsworthy conditions create demand, usually in short windows tied to official data. Here’s when each category most often appears:

• Temperature markets: Before heat waves/cold snaps; first warm-up/cool-down weeks; record-chase days; holiday extremes (Fourth of July highs, New Year’s chills); daily brackets during sports off-seasons.
• Precipitation markets: Incoming storm systems; atmospheric river/monsoon stretches; extended dry spells (rain/no-rain props); holiday tie-ins (e.g., Memorial Day rainouts); outdoor event windows.
• Seasonal predictions: Pre-season windows (start of winter/summer); pre-season outlook releases; hurricane/typhoon season kickoffs; El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) driven anomaly years; “snowiest/wettest month” props near a month’s start.
• Weather-related events: Lead-up to White Christmas; Groundhog Day; first freeze/snowfall windows; earliest 95°F milestones; “hottest day of the year” bets near peak summer.

Availability varies by operator and jurisdiction, so check rules and data sources; many markets post the day before and settle the next morning once official reports publish.