2025 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds & Early Predictions: Can Chestnut Win in July 4 Return?
Joey Chestnut is officially back in the 2025 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest, but he'll face stiff competition in his return to Coney Island on July 4.
Chestnut opened as the -2500 betting favorite by the latest hot dog eating contest odds to recapture the Mustard Belt after he was banned from last year's event. That opened the door for Patrick Bertoletti to win the contest - the first non-Chestnut winner since 2015 - after downing 58 hot dogs and buns.
Those two are the favorites ahead of Geoffrey Esper, who was favored entering last year's contest, in what could present a value opportunity for bettors.
🌭 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest odds 2025
Opening odds to win the 2025 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest as of June 16.
| Competitor | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Chestnut | -2500 | 96.15% |
| Patrick Bertoletti | +950 | 9.52% |
| Geoffrey Esper | +1200 | 7.69% |
| Nick Wehry | +2000 | 4.76% |
| James Webb | +2500 | 3.85% |
| Derek Hendrickson | +5000 | 1.96% |
To nobody's surprise, Chestnut opened as the overwhelming favorite to win this year's hot dog eating contest after his banishment from the event last year due to a conflicting sponsorship deal with Impossible Foods. His -2500 odds represent a 96.15% chance that he'll win in his return to Coney Island.
By comparison, Bertoletti is drawing less than a 10% chance to win after he captured his first Mustard Belt last year. While Chestnut will undoubtedly close as the favorite, I'd expect these odds to shift further in Bertoletti's favor as we see more of our best sports betting sites releasing their early odds.
💰 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest betting favorites
While Chestnut is the runaway favorite to win this event, he isn't the only competitive eater with his eyes on the Mustard Belt.
Here's a look at the top contenders to win this year's July 4 spectacle:
🌭 Joey Chestnut (-2500)
The greatest competitive eater in the history of Major League Eating, Chestnut is no stranger to this event having won it 16 times before - including every year from 2016 to 2023 before he was banned last year.
He also set the all-time record of 76 hot dogs and buns (HDB) back in 2021, though that total dropped to 63 and 62 the following two years before missing last year's event. Sure, he's the likely pick to win again this year, but the door is open in a way it simply hasn't been over the last decade.
🌭 Patrick Bertoletti (+950)
Bertoletti seized his opportunity last year by wolfing down 58 hot dogs and buns - becoming the first men's champion besides Chestnut since 2015 and just the third to ever hit that mark.
His previous best was 55 HDB in 2009, and as he told us in an exclusive interview last year, he wasn't sure if he'd ever get back to that point. But after adapting his style to compensate for a decline in eating speed, he produced his best finish yet and could have more in store this year.
🌭 Geoffrey Esper (+1200)
Esper was the favorite entering last year's event after three consecutive runner-up finishes to Chestnut, briefly touching -200 before settling at even money.
He did set a new personal best last year with 53 HDB, but that was still five short of Bertoletti's mark and well below what most sportsbooks expect Chestnut to clear in his return to the event. Maybe Esper has another gear in him, but he'll need it to keep pace with the top two in the field.
🔮 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest prediction & best bet
At a glance, it seems like Chestnut is a virtual lock to win this event - the betting market certainly thinks so with his implied odds north of 95%.
Color me skeptical. While Chestnut is the most accomplished winner in the history of the sport, he's also seen his HDB count dip each of the past two years and will be 41 years old for this year's event. If he slips by even a few hot dogs, that would put him firmly in the window to be overtaken by Bertoletti.
If all else was equal, it's hard to bet against Chestnut. But with the odds suggesting this is a foregone conclusion, I'm going the other way and backing Bertoletti to defend his belt at Coney Island this year.
✅ Prediction: Patrick Bertoletti to win hot dog eating contest (+950)
🏆 Past Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest winners
| Year | Men's winner | Hot dogs | Women's winner | Hot dogs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Patrick Bertoletti | 58 | Mike Sudo | 51 |
| 2023 | Joey Chestnut | 62 | Miki Sudo | 39.5 |
| 2022 | Joey Chestnut | 63 | Miki Sudo | 40 |
| 2021 | Joey Chestnut | 76 | Michelle Lesco | 30.75 |
| 2020 | Joey Chestnut | 75 | Miki Sudo | 48.5 |
| 2019 | Joey Chestnut | 71 | Miki Sudo | 31 |
| 2018 | Joey Chestnut | 74 | Miki Sudo | 37 |
| 2017 | Joey Chestnut | 72 | Miki Sudo | 41 |
| 2016 | Joey Chestnut | 70 | Miki Sudo | 38.5 |
| 2015 | Matt Stonie | 62 | Miki Sudo | 38 |
| 2014 | Joey Chestnut | 61 | Miki Sudo | 34 |
| 2013 | Joey Chestnut | 69 | Sonya Thomas | 36.75 |
* Joey Chestnut was banned from the 2024 contest due to a partnership with a vegan hot dog company.
❓ Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest FAQs
Who is favored to win the 2025 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest?
Joey Chestnut is the favorite to win this year's hot dog eating contest with his -2500 odds implying a 96.15% chance that he wins in his return to the event.
Who won the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest last year?
Patrick Bertoletti won last year's hot dog eating contest with 58 hot dogs and buns, setting a new personal best to become the first non-Chestnut winner since Matt Stonie in 2015.
When is the 2025 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest?
The Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest will be held on Friday, July 4, as it is annually. The men's competition will begin at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Where is the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest?
The contest is held at Nathan's Famous in Coney Island, N.Y.
How to watch the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest
The Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest is televised on ESPN, with coverage beginning at 10 a.m. ET.
How long is the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest?
The men's and women's competitions are 10 minutes.
💵 Best sports betting sites
Want to bet on the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest? Check out the best best sports betting apps and best sportsbook promos for this year's event:
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
- Hard Rock Bet Promo Code | Read our Hard Rock Bet Review
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.
Related Articles
