USA vs. Sweden Prediction & Best Bets: Olympic Women's Hockey Semifinal Preview

My USA vs. Sweden prediction and best bets for today's Olympic hockey semifinals feature a spread, total, and a player prop. 

Team USA, the -4500 moneyline betting favorite, has made the final in all but one Olympics. Their only semifinal defeat came against today's opponent, Sweden, 20 years ago. Will history repeat itself? Probably not, but can the undefeated Swedes keep things competitive against the gold medal betting favorite? Here are my thoughts on today's high-stakes contest, which starts at 10:40 a.m. ET (Peacock).

🏒 USA vs. Sweden prediction: Olympic women's hockey semifinal

Our expert Olympic hockey picks are based on the latest betting odds at the best sports betting sites.

💰 USA vs. Sweden best bet: USA -4.5 (-140)

This USA team is one of the best women's Olympic hockey teams ever constructed, and it will prove it again in the semifinals against the second-best statistical team in these Games. 

Sweden has won all four games, outscoring opponents 18-1. While impressive, Sweden enjoyed life in a notably easier group. It will enter the semifinals with just one challenging game under its belt, a 2-0 win over Czechia in the semifinals. Team USA, meanwhile, smashed Canada 5-0 in the preliminary round and has outscored opponents 21-0. Game. Set. Match. 

Score prediction: USA 6, Sweden 1

🔥 Best USA vs. Sweden prop bet: Hannah Bilka anytime goal (+110)

Scoring Hannah Bilka at plus-money odds to light the lamp feels like a win. Leading Team USA with four goals, Bilka netted three times in the previous two games, scoring twice against Canada and also lighting the lamp in the quarterfinals against Italy. 

She has the second-best shooting percentage (20%), which can be perceived positively and negatively. You could say she's in for a regression, but I'm more on the optimistic side, backing her accuracy and ruthlessness to continue. I'd play this bet to even-money +100 odds. 

🖐️ Why betting the spread is the best option for USA vs. Sweden

Team USA won all four of its games by at least five goals, including its preliminary contest against Canada. In fact, the United States won all three preliminary games by the same 5-0 score, following those dominant performances with a 6-0 quarterfinals victory over Italy. 

Sweden has the second-best defense in the tournament, at least statistically. It conceded only one goal in four games. That came in a 6-1 victory over Italy. Given their exquisite defenses, backing the Under seems like the best play.

However, Sweden isn't battle-tested and will likely struggle to withstand Team USA's unrelenting attack. If they do win by five again, which I believe will be the case, the only possible scenario where the Under hits is 5-0. But how feasible is four out of five games finishing with the same 5-0 score, and for how long can Team USA's shutout streak continue?  

That's why I'm backing USA -4.5 and the Over.

📺 How to watch USA vs. Sweden

• Date: Monday, Feb. 16
• Puck drop: 10:40 a.m. ET
• Location: Milano Santagiulia Arena (Milan, Italy)
• TV: Peacock