Sweden vs. Latvia Prediction & Best Bets Today: Olympic Hockey Qualifying Playoffs Preview

The Three Crowns look to avoid their worst-ever result in the Olympics where NHL players participate, and I'm backing them to get past a resilient Latvian side in my Sweden vs. Latvia prediction and best bets.

Sweden is the -1300 moneyline betting favorite to prevail and set up a mouthwatering quarterfinal against Team USA. While Sweden should get the job done, will it struggle across the line, or will it dominate a team it is superior to on paper? Unfortunately for Sweden, this game isn't played on paper. Here are my three recommendations for the must-win contest. 

🏒 Sweden vs. Latvia prediction: Olympic men's hockey qualifying playoffs 

Our expert Olympic hockey picks are based on the latest betting odds at the best sports betting sites.

💰 Sweden vs. Latvia best bet: Over 6.5 (+110)

Sweden has been the tournament's most disappointing team, irrefutably. But they should be able to get through the awaiting Latvian challenge. However, I'm unsure of their ability to pull away from a decent Latvian team, given how much they've struggled at both ends of the rink. 

Sweden scored five goals against Italy and Slovakia, and it has the offensive firepower to erupt, but Latvia will collapse and contain, making it challenging for the Olympic odds contenders to break through. Eventually, Sweden will do enough to cash the Over. 

Score prediction: Sweden 5, Latvia 2 

🔥 Best Sweden vs. Latvia prop bet: Lucas Raymond Over 1.5 assists (+125)

Raymond leads Sweden in assists (4) and points (5). He's among the top 20 in assists in the NHL, leading the Detroit Red Wings with 41.  

Of Raymond's five points at the Olympics, only one was a goal. Raymond's odds to notch at least two points are -135. As he's a puritan set-up man, I've decided to bank on him securing at least two apples, offering a much tastier and potentially more profitable +125. Raymond has contributed to five of Sweden's 11 goals, or 45%. 

So, if they score five goals, there's a solid chance he'll get two points (hopefully assists). I'd play this bet to +115.

🥅 Who will start in goal for Sweden vs. Latvia? 

It's the question on everyone's mind, as neither coach is willing to show their hand in the lead-up to this elimination contest. 

Sweden will go with Filip Gustavsson or Jacob Markstrom. Gustavsson struggled in the opening two games of the tournament, specifically against Italy. He conceded two weak ones, putting his team in a precarious position. 

Markstrom, meanwhile, played pretty well against Slovakia. By no means did he stand on his head and steal the contest, but he was more reliable than Gustavsson. That's why I expect Markstrom to get the nod. 

Who will start in goal for Latvia?

Latvia has a difficult decision between Elvis Merzļikins and Arturs Silovs. 

Silovs started in the final two preliminary round games, the 4-3 win over Germany and the 4-2 loss to Denmark. Merzlikins got the nod against the United States in the opener, saving 28 of 32 shots before giving way to Silovs in the third period.

The other factor to consider is that Silovs conjured an otherworldly performance against Sweden at the 2023 World Championship, backstopping Latvia to the improbable 3-1 win. He made 40 saves on that occasion. 

Head coach Harijs Vitolins will likely go with Silovs, hoping he can recapture that 2023 magic. Silovs pulled off the feat before, so why not again?

What is the puck line for Sweden vs. Latvia? 

📺 How to watch Sweden vs. Latvia

• Date: Tuesday, Feb. 17
• Puck drop: 3:10 p.m. ET
• Location: Santaguilia Arena (Milan, Italy)
• TV: CBC Gem, Peacock

💡Olympic hockey expert picks

• How to bet the men's Olympic hockey tournament
• Men's Olympic hockey odds & predictions
• One reason each favorite and dark horse can win
• Olympic hockey odds at prediction markets

🗓️ Olympic men's hockey schedule

Qualification matchups (Tuesday)

Quarterfinal matchups (Wednesday)