Panthers vs. Bruins Predictions & Odds: Friday's NHL Playoffs Expert Picks

The Florida Panthers hope they've found the key to unlock the Jeremy Swayman puzzle as we offer our prediction and analysis for Game 3 of the Florida Panthers vs. Boston Bruins second-round series.

Gary Pearson

Last updated: May 10, 2024 4:48 PM EDT • 5 min read

The Boston Bruins return to TD Garden to face the Florida Panthers with the series tied, and we're offering our analysis and prediction for Friday's Panthers-Bruins Game 3 based on the best NHL odds.

The second-round series between the Boston Bruins (47-20-15) and Florida Panthers (52-24-6) has been unpredictable, with Boston claiming a decisive victory in Game 1, only for Florida to respond with a dominant win in Game 2. The series now stands even at 1-1 as they head into Game 3.

The visiting Panthers head to TD Garden as favorites across our best sports betting sites to win Friday's Game 3, with puck drop set for 7 p.m. ET on TNT. As the Bruins currently hold the third-longest Stanley Cup odds among the remaining teams, the Panthers find themselves positioned near the top, alongside the New York Rangers and Colorado Avalanche.

Here's our Panthers vs. Bruins prediction and NHL pick (odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Panthers vs. Bruins Game 3 expert picks

Over 5.5 goals (-105 via Betway) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Panthers vs. Bruins predictions for Friday

Over 5.5 goals ⭐⭐⭐⭐

In Game 2, animosity spilled over like the head of a poorly poured Guinness. The contest got out of hand when the score did, spearheading more donnybrooks, scrums, and verbal jousting than a family reunion gone wrong. The throwback to the good old days even included a scrap between Matthew Tkachuk and David Pastrnak, in which the Panthers' primed predator cooked Pasta al dente. While Pastrnak should be applauded for stepping up, it's never a promising sign to be seen asking your head coach for permission before dropping the gloves.

The Bruins' frustration was as much a projection of their own languid play. In Game 1, the Bruins surfed the monstrous wave of adrenaline and emotional high from their Game 7 overtime win against the Toronto Maple Leafs. Like a partygoer after a weeklong binge, Jim Montgomery's team came crashing back to earth in Game 2. Betway offers -105 odds for Over 5.5 goals, which has an implied probability of 51.22%. A winning $10 wager pays a profit of $9.52.

Over 5.5 goals (-105 via Betway)

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Bruins vs. Panthers playoffs Over trend

The lopsided scores in Games 1 and 2 resulted in Over 5.5 goals.

Seeing both games in Florida result in blowouts, at least on the surface level, was more surprising than witnessing Brad Marchand lick Ryan Callahan in the second round of the 2017-18 playoffs. However, after diving deeper, these two heated Atlantic Division rivals are accustomed to hitting the Over as much as each other in the playoffs, and the clubs frequently play one-sided affairs.

Eight consecutive playoff games between the Bruins and Panthers featured at least six goals, with six going Over 6.5. Only one of the last nine contests, Game 1 of the 2022-23 series, went Under 5.5 goals.

The current string of playoff Overs contradicts the head-to-head regular-season results, when three of four contests went Under 5.5 goals. The playoff trend is even more perplexing when considering that each team trotted out a top-five defense during the regular season.

The disproportionate number of lopsided playoff games is even more of a head-scratcher. There's been a one-goal outcome in only two of the last nine playoff encounters between the B's and Panthers, both of which went to overtime. Three games were decided by two goals, with only one featuring an empty-netter. That phenomenon can only continue for so long, so expect a close Game 3, particularly after three of the four regular-season battles were one-goal affairs.

Do the Panthers know how to pounce on Jeremy Swayman?

Regarding netminders, Jeremy Swayman is the talk of the NHL playoffs. While Igor Shesterkin would contest that assertion, nobody has given his team a chance to win as much as Swayman, as his otherworldly 12.7 goals saved above expected shows. He allowed more than two goals for the first time in eight playoff starts during Game 2.

Montgomery swiftly and astutely pulled Swayman after he gave up the fourth goal early in the third period. It looked like Montgomery assured Swayman he'd be back between the pipes for Friday's Game 3, the head coach was merely offering his overworked netminder a chance to take a deep breath for the first time in about two weeks.

But does Florida possess the master key to get past the NHL's supreme gatekeeper? The Panthers scored three goals on Swayman in his only start against them in the regular season and lit the lamp four times in Game 7 during the first round in 2023.

While Swayman should enjoy a bounce-back performance in Game 3, it might not be enough to prevent the Panthers from scoring at least three on him for the fourth time in the last five attempts.

Panthers vs. Bruins Game 3 info & odds

When: Friday, May 10
Puck drop: 7 p.m. ET
Where: TD Garden, Boston
How to watch: TNT, Sportsnet
Favorite: Panthers (-130 via Betway)

Panthers-Bruins predictions made Friday at 10 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Gary Pearson

Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.