NHL Player Props & Best Bets: Schedule, Picks for Wednesday's Stanley Cup Playoffs Action

It’s a huge night in the NHL north of the border, with the Toronto Maple Leafs looking to avoid the Florida Panthers eliminating them, and the Edmonton Oilers attempting to tie their series with the Vegas Golden Knights at 2-2. Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker checks in with his top picks and predictions for Wednesday's action based on the NHL odds across our best sportsbooks.

Not only are the Maple Leafs on the brink of elimination, but they’ll turn to 24-year-old netminder Joseph Woll to make his first NHL playoff start with No. 1 goalie Ilya Samsonov out due to an upper-body injury. Toronto has adjusted its lines and defensive pairs ahead of Game 4. Meanwhile, the Panthers hold the luxury of needing to win just one of the next four games to advance to the Eastern Conference Final.

Florida could also enjoy some added sun, rest, and relaxation and avoid heading north to Toronto for Game 5 with a Wednesday win.

Turning to the nightcap, Vegas stunned Edmonton at Rogers Place in Game 3 on Monday. But the Golden Knights are also likely turning to a backup goalie with Adin Hill expected to start Game 4.

Oilers superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl were both held off the scoresheet for the first time during the postseason Monday, and priority No. 1 for the Golden Knights will be to keep them quiet again.

Here are our NHL player props and best bets for Wednesday (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, and FanDuel Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our Stanley Cup odds.

Wednesday’s NHL schedule and odds

(Odds via DraftKings)

• Toronto Maple Leafs (-125) vs. Florida Panthers (+105)
• Edmonton Oilers (-175) vs. Vegas Golden Knights (+150)

Wednesday’s NHL best bets

• Player prop: Evan Bouchard Over 2.5 shots (+130 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
• Regulation win: Maple Leafs (+125 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
• Player Prop: Mark Stone Under 0.5 points (+136 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐

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Wednesday’s NHL player prop picks

Player prop: Evan Bouchard Over 2.5 shots (+130 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Bouchard tied for a team-high seven shot attempts in Game 3, but he only registered two shots on goal. He’s now gone five straight contests with two shots or fewer. 

Still, the power-play quarterback ranks third on the Oilers with 20 attempts through the first three games of Round 2 against Vegas, and plus-money odds remain available.

His shot volume is actually up over the past three games (20.5 per 60 minutes), but fewer attempts from Bouchard are qualifying as shots. Bouchard hit the net on 41.1% of his regular-season attempts, but he's converted at just 33.9% during the postseason.

Pinnacle is offering Bouchard’s shot prop at +117, so the DraftKings number is presenting a solid edge. When comparing the numbers across our best sportsbooks, the difference in the +130 odds and +115 price is a positive expected value of 7% and an added $1.50 on a $10 bet.

Player Prop: Mark Stone Under 0.5 points (+136 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐

This is as much of a bet on Edmonton superstar Connor McDavid as it is on Stone. 

I’m expecting the Vegas winger to spend the bulk of his five-on-five ice time matched up against McDavid’s line again in Game 4. Stone’s most common opponent in Games 1 and 3 was McDavid, and of course, the Golden Knights won both contests.

McDavid is a daunting opponent to match up against while sporting an impressive 61.2 Corsi For percentage and being on the ice for just 2.11 expected goals against through the first three games of the series. Stone has only been out there for 1.58 expected goals for at five-on-five during the series, for comparison.

Additionally, Stone’s ice time is way down to an average of just 16:39 the past two games, and he’s also produced an unsustainably high 23.5 postseason shooting percentage.

There isn’t a huge edge in the available odds across our best sporting betting sites, which is why I’ve listed this as a two-star bet. Additionally, Stone’s role on the No. 1 power-play unit and elite 4.27 points per 60 minutes during the playoffs reinforce why his Over 0.5 points is the favored side.

Check out our Conn Smythe odds.

Wednesday’s NHL game picks

Regulation win: Maple Leafs (+125 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐

It’s put up or shut up time for the Maple Leafs, and no one will want to hear about their poor puck luck following a Game 4 loss.

Toronto has actually been better in Round 2 than the Leafs were against the Tampa Bay Lightning in their opening series. Several key metrics are also right in line with the regular-season numbers the Maple Leafs posted.

The team's shooting percentage is just 7.1 through three games against Florida despite registering 2.86 expected goals and 13.21 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five. The Maple Leafs recorded a 9.0 shooting percentage during the regular season while generating similar 2.9 xGF and 13.9 HDSC marks.

For comparison, Toronto posted a 10.1 shooting percentage with 2.37 xGF and 12.3 HDSC per 60 against Tampa Bay in Round 1.

Finally, the core four Maple Leafs – Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and William Nylander – have combined for 49 shots, 84 attempts, and 28 individual high-danger scoring chances without finding the back of the net during the series. That changes Wednesday.

There isn’t a tremendous edge to be found across our best NHL betting sites, but you’ll definitely want to avoid the +115 through Caesars. The difference between the available +125 odds and the Caesars number is a positive expected value of 5%.

Check out our best live betting sites.

NHL picks made 5/10/2023 at 10:30 a.m. ET.

Here are our best NHL betting sites:

• FanDuel: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our FanDuel Review
• Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
• DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
• PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
• BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review

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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

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• Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)