NHL MVP Odds & Predictions 2025-26: McDavid Heavily Favored, But Pastrnak Has Value

Although Winnipeg Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck took home the Hart Trophy last year, centers have dominated NHL MVP odds and predictions for nearly a decade, claiming five of the last six MVP awards and six of 10.

That includes Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid, who has taken home the Hart in two of the past five seasons and three times in his career. McDavid (+200) finds himself as a heavy favorite to be named NHL MVP once again, well ahead of top challengers Nathan MacKinnon (+500) and Nikita Kucherov (+1000) on the latest NHL odds.

Our survey of the Hart Trophy odds agrees that McDavid is the most likely winner, but we see the most value on the Boston Bruins’ David Pastrnak as a dark horse pick and also like the long shot price available on the Toronto Maple Leafs' William Nylander. Read on to learn why.

📊 NHL MVP odds 2025-26

Hart Trophy odds updated live in real time; see the latest NHL odds for every game.

🏆 Who will win the Hart Trophy?

Check out all of our NHL picks entering the regular season.

Connor McDavid, C, Oilers (+200)

From a probability standpoint, Connor McDavid is the obvious Hart Trophy pick. He’s won it twice in the past five years and three times in his career, and he’s finished second or third in voting three other times. Even last year, when McDavid missed nearly a fifth of the season due to injury, he finished a respectable 10th in the Hart Trophy race.

If there’s any reason to avoid McDavid as the favorite, it’s the potential that he splits votes with teammate Leon Draisaitl. The latter was the runner-up to Connor Hellebuyck for the Hart last year and is a past winner himself, taking home the trophy in 2020.

On the other hand, McDavid has plenty of motivation to further cement his status as the best player in the world, coming off consecutive Stanley Cup Final losses and entering a contract year. If he does, a $10 wager at DraftKings can net you a $20 profit.

💰 Best bet to win Hart Trophy

Our NHL player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market (including the Hart Trophy) across legal sportsbooks in your area.

David Pastrnak, RW, Bruins (+2700)

Even though David Pastrnak finished a distant 11th in Hart Trophy voting last year, he was arguably the most valuable player to his team. His 106 points were nearly double that of the next-closest Bruin, he led the team in both goals and assists, he was one of the few Boston players not to have a negative plus-minus rating, and he suited up in all 82 Bruins games.

That level of durability is nothing new to Pastrnak, who hasn’t missed a game in any of the past three years. He’s averaged nearly 110 points per season during that stretch, collecting at least 106 points in each of those campaigns.

Pastrnak’s Hart chances last year were derailed by a lack of team success as Boston missed the playoffs for the first time since 2016. However, that now creates a low bar in Beantown (FanDuel lists the Bruins’ season points total at a lowly 79.5). If Boston can return to the playoffs again, Pastrnak should get the lion’s share of the credit.

In my opinion, that makes him the best Hart Trophy value bet on the board, paying as high as +2700 at FanDuel. A $10 bet returns $270.

🎯 Long shot to win Hart Trophy

Follow along with the rest of our NHL analysis for more futures picks.

William Nylander, RW, Maple Leafs (+15000)

It’s been easy to lose William Nylander in the shadows of superstar Maple Leafs teammates Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner for the past decade. However, one of those big shadows is no more following Marner’s departure to Vegas, giving Nylander the chance to step into the bright spotlight of the Toronto hockey market.

Perhaps he’ll now get more recognition as a sniper who has topped the 40-goal plateau in three consecutive seasons, averaged better than a point per game during that span, and missed just one game in the past four years. In fact, those numbers could even improve with a larger offensive role now that Marner is gone, especially if Nylander sees significant time alongside Matthews.

As FanDuel’s +15000 odds suggest, Nylander to win the Hart is certainly a long shot - but Connor Hellebuyck was also 150/1 last fall before going on to win league MVP. DraftKings and BetMGM are also offering Nylander at +15000, providing the chance to profit $1500 on a winning $10 wager.