NHL Futures: Looking For Value as Hart Trophy Race Heats Up
There’s been plenty of shifting in the Hart Trophy Race since earlier in the season. Let’s examine the leaders, long shots, and best bets with our Hart Trophy odds.
As performance ebbs and flows during an NHL season, so, too, do the odds for the Hart Trophy. Though Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid has been a favorite for most of the season and remains in that position now, the challengers continue to jockey for position.
Here are the Hart Trophy race odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and PointsBet.
Hart Trophy Odds
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The Favorite
Connor McDavid (+200 via DraftKings)
It says something about the bar McDavid has set that this season could be considered disappointing. He's tied for the league lead with 66 points in 46 games, and his 1.43 points per game are the best in the NHL.
McDavid's put up those numbers despite a five-on-five on-ice shooting percentage of 7.6, easily the lowest of his career. His on-ice shooting percentage in the past two seasons was 11.2, and though he can create higher quality scoring chances, he ultimately can’t shoot every puck, and that's slowed his production.
The superstar has five points in three games since the Oilers replaced former head coach Dave Tippett with Jay Woodcroft. McDavid had been in what he'd consider a slump before then, managing 19 points in the previous 21 games.
Edmonton has climbed into a playoff spot, and if it comfortably locks up a postseason position while McDavid wins the scoring race, he'll likely take home the Hart Trophy. When it comes to McDavid’s production, he could experience some positive regression.
Oilers teammate Leon Draisaitl's Hart Trophy odds have moved to +650 despite the fact he's tied for the league lead in goals and points. He faces the same team expectations as McDavid, but Draisaitl could make his case as the most valuable player if he wins the goals and points race for a playoff-bound Oilers team.
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The Next Tier
Alex Ovechkin (+400 via FanDuel)
It was always going to be a near-impossible task for a 36-year-old Ovechkin to continue the torrent pace he started the season on. He began the campaign by scoring 24 goals and 50 points in 33 games.
Ovechkin’s production has faded recently - 12 points in his last 16 games - amid rumblings that he's playing through an upper-body injury. He also tested positive for COVID-19 just before the All-Star break.
If Ovechkin wins the Rocket Richard Trophy as the league’s leading goal-scorer, he'll be in the discussion for the Hart Trophy. But these prices aren't offering great value given the competition he faces.
Jonathan Huberdeau (+700 via DraftKings)
An increasingly popular choice as the season has progressed, Huberdeau was +1800 on DraftKings four weeks ago. He's now third in the NHL scoring race with 64 points in 47 games, as the Florida Panthers have turned into an offensive juggernaut.
Huberdeau is an elite point producer, and the Panthers are having a great season. In contrast to McDavid's low on-ice shooting percentage, Huberdeau owns a career-high five-on-five on-ice shooting percentage of 11.6.
Auston Matthews (+1000 via PointsBet)
I liked Matthews' value four weeks ago when he was +1200 on DraftKings. The prices have moved a little, but Matthews can still be grabbed for +1000 at PointsBet.
He's tied for seventh in league scoring with 57 points, and his 1.33 points per game are tied for fifth among players to skate in at least 35 games. Matthews has 32 goals - one behind league leaders Leon Draisaitl and Chris Kreider - but leads the league with 0.74 goals per game.
His case will certainly be helped if he can pull away and win the goal-scoring crown. Matthews has also made a huge impact for the Toronto Maple Leafs on the defensive ends. Though that may not resonate with a huge percentage of voters, his elite offensive production paired with that defensive effort will make him hard to ignore.
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Longer Odds Worth a Look
Johnny Gaudreau (+4000 via FanDuel)
I touted Gaudreau as an intriguing long shot earlier in the season when he was priced at +11000, but he's not even listed among Hart Trophy candidates on DraftKings. "Johnny Hockey" is sixth in the league with 60 points in 46 games and his line - with Elias Lindholm and Matthew Tkachuk - has been dominant. It earns 76.5% of goals when on the ice at five-on-five.
With the Flames surging to the top of the Pacific Division, Gaudreau is still an intriguing long shot.
Kirill Kaprizov (+4000 via FanDuel)
The Minnesota Wild star was priced at +5000 last month. The price hasn't moved as much at FanDuel, so that’s the place to buy.
Kaprizov has much shorter odds at DraftKings (+1600) and PointsBet (+1800). He's tied with Matthews for seventh in scoring with 57 points in 43 games. Though that's not quite the pace needed to overtake the top contenders, a strong finish could put him in the discussion, and that price on FanDuel remains appealing.
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