McDavid and Draisaitl Rightful Hart Trophy Favorites

Our Scott Cullen examines the NHL Hart Trophy favorites and some longshots that might be worth backing.

It is an unusual situation to be less than a quarter of the way through the NHL season and have it appear to be a two-horse race for the Hart Trophy. Currently, two teammates on the Edmonton Oilers are at the head of the pack.

In the past 11 seasons, there have been 10 different winners of the Hart Trophy, with Edmonton’s Connor McDavid, last year’s winner, the only player to win it twice. That feels like it could be just the beginning for the 24-year-old who seems to be hitting his absolute peak. McDavid has 36 points (14 G, 22 A) in 19 games this season. Despite being second in the scoring race, has the lowest odds at +140 (all odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook) to win the MVP Award.

The leading scorer in the league, the Hart Trophy winner in 2019-2020, and McDavid’s teammate, Leon Draisaitl has the next lowest odds at +430. Draisaitl has 40 points (20 G, 20 A) in 19 games. While McDavid has scored more highlight-reel goals, if Draisaitl ends up as the league’s leading scorer, he would seem to have an edge on McDavid for MVP.

The last teammates that finished 1-2 in the Hart Trophy voting were Bobby Orr and Phil Esposito of the Boston Bruins in 1970-1971. So even if it looks like that’s the way this is headed now, the voting tends to separate teammates.

Part of the reason that occurs is that writers get into contortions over the wording for the award. The award says it is for the player “most valuable to his team” so there is often an exercise of trying to find the best player whose teammates were not very good. At the very least, the inclination goes against voting for two teammates as the most valuable. This season might be different, in which case Draisaitl would seem to have the better value at this point.

Break Throughs for Any Other Players?

One of the Oilers stars might slump, but it is difficult to imagine that both would. If ever the slump gets bad enough, the Oilers would likely put them together more at even strength. Historically, the Oilers have not let McDavid and Draisaitl languish in long slumps. Thus, counting on their scoring to drop off significantly is probably wishful thinking for other challengers.

Where a team finishes in the standings should not be that important when determining the most valuable individual player, but it is still a factor for some NHL award voters. The narrative heads towards, “How valuable could he be if his team missed the playoffs?” Could the Oilers as a team fall off the playoff pace? We have seen enough from the Oilers over the past decade-plus to know that this is at least a possibility.

But, this Oilers team does look better than previous iterations. If Edmonton is somehow scrambling to stay in the playoff picture, there will be accusations of McDavid and Draisaitl piling up empty points and not truly helping their team win.

Finally, injury is always a big factor in the calculation. Hockey is a sport that lends itself to players missing significant time with injuries. McDavid has had a couple of significant injuries in his career already. When the Ferrari is going top speed, it does not take much to cause damage. Draisaitl has been more durable since he became a full-fledged NHL player. That could be a small point in his favor.

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Other Hart Trophy Contenders

Everyone else in the discussion is going to feel like a longshot by comparison but let’s take a look at some possibilities.

The only other player within 10 points of Draisaitl and McDavid right now is Washington’s Alex Ovechkin. Ovechkin is 36 years old and is off to the best start of his career with 33 points (15 G, 18 A) in 20 games. If Ovi keeps that pace all season, scoring 60-plus goals, the narrative might give him a shot at the upset. The larger issue is whether he would be able to have the most productive season of his career at age 36.

There are a few forwards priced at +2200 on FanDuel. Toronto’s Auston Matthews, the Rangers’ Artemi Panarin, and Florida’s Aleksander Barkov. With Barkov out of the lineup currently, he's going to have an even harder time forcing his way into the discussion. Matthews and Panarin are both off to adequate starts, but this is not an award for the adequate. Both would have to elevate their production significantly to gain Hart Trophy consideration.

Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon has been a finalist for the Hart Trophy in three of the past four seasons. But he last played November 6, and missing three weeks or more is going to make it difficult for him.

Longshots

How about a couple of longshots to consider? Boston’s Brad Marchand has finished fifth in the voting twice, including last season. He is a consistently productive scorer and elite play-driving winger. He may not score enough to reel in the Oilers but at +5000 on FanDuel, Marchand might be worth a look.

Another longshot to keep in mind is Calgary’s Johnny Gaudreau. Remember, narrative tends to be a factor. If the Flames are ahead of the Oilers in the standings by a significant amount that might open the door for Gaudreau to be considered. He has 23 points (9 G, 14 A) in 20 games right now, so he will have to increase his scoring rate, but if he finds his way to 100-plus points and the Flames win the division, maybe Gaudreau at a lofty +11000 could pay off.

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