Will Aaron Rodgers Retire Prediction Market | Will Rodgers Play 2026-27 Season?
With the arrival of Week 18, it's time to ask ourselves the question that's on everyone's mind: will Aaron Rodgers retire after this season?
What does prediction market Kalshi think about all this, and where should you invest your money? Let's dive in.
Will Aaron Rodgers retire before 2026-27 season?
Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.
At 42 years old, Rodgers may very well be playing his final snaps tonight against the Ravens if the Steelers were to lose at home. The Kalshi prediction market indicates a 65% chance (65 cents, "yes") he will retire before next season. While these chances were as high as 75% in early October, it's clear your patience might pay dividends if you're looking to get into the "yes" market.
In June, after signing a one-year, $13.65-million deal with the Steelers, Rodgers said he was "pretty sure" the 2025 season would be his last on "The Pat McAfee Show." He went on to say he feels there's no better place to close out his career with a cornerstone franchise and with Mike Tomlin.
In a press conference on Wednesday, he didn't confirm nor deny his retirement, but did say he "thought about" a potential return to Pittsburgh. Whether that comes to fruition remains to be seen. Since these comments, his retirement chances dropped from 65% to 62%.
Will Aaron Rodgers retire? My prediction
This is a tough prediction market to crack, on one hand, we're talking about one of the most fiercest competitors in the history of football at the quarterback position. On the other, well, he's 42 years old and is showing clear signs of decline. He's not quite a shell of his former self, but he's getting there, throwing for the least amount of yards and touchdowns in his career when playing at least 16 games in a season.
I think the "yes" market is the play here at this moment, especially now that the Steelers are in the playoffs, allowing Rodgers to have one more run at the Super Bowl. That's ultimately why he came back and signed this one-year deal. Remember, this market sat at 75% in early October, when Pittsburgh was 4-1 and well on its way to the playoffs.
My final thoughts: invest now in the (65 cents) "yes" market. He's got his last run at the Super Bowl, and that's all he wanted. The "no" market likely would have been the play if the Steelers lost to the Ravens in Week 18.
Where does Aaron Rodgers rank among oldest QBs to play?
| Name | Oldest age while playing | Years active | Last team |
|---|---|---|---|
| George Blanda | 48 years | 1949–1975 (26 years) | Oakland Raiders (1967–1975) |
| John Nesser | 45 years | 1909–1921 (12 years) | Columbus Panhandles |
| Steve DeBerg | 44 years | 1977–1993; 1998 (17 years) | Atlanta Falcons (1998) |
| Tom Brady | 45 years | 2000–2023 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2020–2023) |
| Vinny Testaverde | 44 years | 1987–2007 (21 years) | Carolina Panthers (2007) |
| Warren Moon | 43 years | 1984–2000 (16 years) | Kansas City Chiefs (1999–2000) |
| Doug Flutie | 43 years | 1986–2005 | San Diego Chargers (2001–2004) |
| Earl Morrall | 42 years | 1956–1976 (21 years) | Miami Dolphins (1972–1976) |
| Drew Brees | 42 years | 2001–2021 | New Orleans Saints (2006–2021) |
| Brett Favre | 41 years | 1991–2010 (19 years) | Minnesota Vikings (2009–2010) |
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