NFL Week 6 Teaser Picks: Pickett In Trouble Against Brady
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Jacksonville Jaguars headline our NFL Week 6 teasers picks.
Teasers offer bettors the ability to move multiple spreads and totals through key numbers and ranges in exchange for an increased vig. In addition to securing a larger cushion on spreads and totals, wagering earlier in the week can provide market value by beating the closing numbers.
For additional information on teaser bets and strategies, make sure to check out our teaser betting primer.
Here are our NFL teaser picks for Week 6. Lines from FanDuel Sportsbook as of 1 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Oct. 11.
Week 6 NFL ATS Teaser Picks
Favorite to Tease Down
Buccaneers (-8.5)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a top-tier defense and Tom Brady, and that was enough for me to already back Tampa -8.5 against a rookie quarterback leading a weak offensive attack.
Even with the disappointing defensive showing during the Week 4 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, the Buccaneers rank third in defensive DVOA, per Football Outsiders, and eighth in defense grade, per Pro Football Focus.
As a result, this is going to be a tough matchup for a Pittsburgh offense that ranks 24th in DVOA this season.
Additionally, Brady has completed 71.2% of his passes for 736 yards and four touchdowns while leading all quarterbacks in success rate the past two weeks. Steelers rookie Kenny Pickett, meanwhile, has four interceptions on just 65 pass attempts since taking over midway through the Week 4 loss to the New York Jets.
Bettors can tease this spread through multiple key numbers, and Tampa Bay only needs to win by a field goal to cash this teaser leg.
Underdog to Tease Up
Jaguars (+2.5)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have lost some early-season shine after blowing a 14-point, first-quarter lead against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 4, and then scoring just six points and losing at home to the Houston Texans last week.
Still, the Jags boast one of the best statistical defenses in the league, and the Indianapolis Colts rank among the worst offenses in the NFL.
In particular, Colts quarterback Matt Ryan ranks fourth-last in EPA per play and his seven interceptions and 21 sacks are tied for league-high marks.
Additionally, if the past few weeks have been any indication, there could be a lot of support for the Jags that could drive this spread down. Jacksonville won the Week 2 matchup against the Colts 24-0 at home, after all.
So, with Indy sporting the lowest offensive DVOA in the NFL, I’m confident teasing this spread up through multiple key numbers and betting the Jaguars make Ryan's life miserable again Sunday.
Week 4 NFL O/U Teaser Picks
Total to Tease Down
Vikings-Dolphins (45.5)
Both the Minnesota Vikings and Miami Dolphins have shown an ability to pile up points on the scoreboard, and neither team has shown off defensively – a perfect matchup for an Over.
Additionally, Miami quarterback Teddy Bridgewater didn’t have concussion symptoms Sunday or Monday, so there’s potential for him to be a limited participant in Thursday’s practice. If Bridgewater clears the concussion protocol, this total should climb, which makes this an opportune time to tease it down through the key ranges of 43-44 and 40-41.
The Vikings rank ninth in EPA per play and 11th in offensive DVOA, whereas Miami has been even better ranking sixth in both metrics. As noted, it’s been a completely different scenario on defense, as they respectively rank 28th and 29th in DVOA.
Obviously, I’m significantly more confident in teasing this total down if Bridgewater is active. Still, Miami head coach Mike McDaniel’s creativity and a full week of practice for rookie quarterback Skylar Thompson should have the offense positioned to move the ball and score against the vulnerable Minnesota defense.
Total to Tease Up
Panthers-Rams (40.5)
Despite all their offensive struggles, the Los Angeles Rams have remained a stout defense, especially against the run. L.A. boasts the top-graded run defense, per PFF, and the Rams have also surrendered the second-lowest rush EPA.
With Carolina Panthers quarterback Baker Mayfield likely out due to a high-ankle sprain, and signal callers Sam Darnold (ankle) and Matt Corral (foot) on injured reserve, it will probably be P.J. Walker starting on the road against the Rams on Sunday.
Not exactly an encouraging situation for the 31st-ranked offense by DVOA.
Add the coaching change, and there isn’t a lot to like about the Panthers' offensive outlook against the stingy Rams this week.
Carolina had been playing strong defense before the levee broke against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 5, so it probably won’t be a cakewalk for the L.A. offense on Sunday, either. The Panthers ranked 10th in EPA allowed per play and 12th in defensive DOVA through the first four weeks of the season, after all.
While this total has already dropped from an opening 42, you can still tease it up through the key range of 43-44 points, and it’s also worth noting the Under has hit in six of the Rams last seven games as the market clearly hasn't fully adjusted to their offensive struggles to his point of the season.
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