Early Vikings vs. Bears Prediction, Odds & Picks for MNF: NFL Week 1

With a new era getting underway in the Windy City and J.J. McCarthy preparing for his regular-season debut, I hand-pick my best bet for the first MNF game of the season.

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: September 1, 2025 7:15 PM EDT • 4 minute read

Vikings vs. Bears Early Predictions, Picks & Odds for MNF Week 1 — Pictured: J.J. McCarthy throws a pass against the Houston Texans. Photo by Jeffrey Becker via Imagn Images

It doesn't get better than Week 1 MNF featuring a new-look, Ben Johnson-led Chicago Bears hosting a Minnesota Vikings team entering its J.J. McCarthy era, and I was tempted to back the underdog Bears in my Vikings vs. Bears predictions.

Especially when you consider that rookie quarterbacks, which McCarthy is for all intents and purposes, are 17-37-1 in openers. However, my NFL picks pivoted to a bet focusing on the total (43.5 points) for reasons discussed below. The Vikings are the 1.5-point betting favorite for Monday's game at Soldier Field in Chicago (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN).

💰 Early Vikings vs. Bears prediction & best bet

Stay ahead with the rest of our early NFL predictions.

⬇️ Under 43.5 ⭐⭐⭐

I came within an inch (I know it was an inch due to the accuracy of my new virtual measurement device) of backing the Bears (+1.5). Some of the reasons I like the Bears in the opener also pertain to my Under pick.

McCarthy makes his regular-season debut on the road in a hostile environment against a Bears defense that last season received the 10th-best coverage rating, according to PFF.

While it wasn't an elite unit overall, the defense was the only reason Chicago didn't lose more than 12 games.

McCarthy won't have the suspended Jordan Addison at his disposal. And while Justin Jefferson should suit up, which Matt Burke discussed in his Jefferson injury update, I'm dubious about how effective the 22-year-old signal caller will be in getting the Offensive Player of the Year odds contender the ball.

Yes, Jefferson is a freak of nature and probably won't miss a beat despite missing much of training camp, but the impressionable quarterback needs more reps to build chemistry with his primary target.

And then there's the Bears offense, which should be immeasurably superior to last year's unit. However, that, too, should take time to optimize. Plus, Johnson's first task at hand is facing last season's second-best defensive DVOA unit.

There is uncertainty in Brian Flores' secondary, but his defensive line has the potential to be a top-five unit. The total is set at 43.5 points across our best sports betting apps, with Caesars, DraftKings, and BetMGM offering the standard -110 odds on the Under.

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📊 Vikings vs. Bears odds: Week 1

NFL odds update live in real time.

📈 Vikings vs. Bears opening odds

Moneyline: Vikings -115 | Bears -105
Spread: Vikings -1.5 (-105) | Bears +1.5 (-1115)
Over/Under: O44.5 (-110) | U44.5 (-110)

🔍 Vikings vs. Bears odds analysis

The total opened at 44.5 points and dropped to 43.5. It is juiced to -115 at FanDuel and -110 at the other best sports betting sites. I don't see it moving much. If anything, it could drop by half a point. Meanwhile, the Vikings are the 1.5-point betting favorite. That line will decrease if Jefferson cannot play, an unlikely scenario.

🚑 Vikings vs. Bears injury report

📺 How to watch Vikings vs. Bears

When: Monday, Sept. 8
Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
Where: Soldier Field (Chicago)
How to watch: ESPN

💡 NFL predictions for Week 1

❓ Vikings vs. Bears FAQs

Who is favored to win Vikings vs. Bears?

The Vikings are -120 favorites to beat the Bears, with those odds implying a 54.55% chance to win with a $10 bet returning an $8.33 profit. The Bears sit as high as +110 odds across the best NFL betting sites with a 47.62% implied probability and an $11 profit on a $10 bet.

What are the opening odds for Vikings vs. Bears?

The Vikings opened as the 1.5-point favorite on the point spread to beat the rival Bears. The total opened at 44.5 points and has already dropped to 43.5.

How do NFL odds work?

When betting on NFL odds, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.

Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.

You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.

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Written by:
Gary Pearson

Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.