NFL Upset Picks, Predictions: Top Underdog Picks for Week 8
The trend of touchdown or larger underdogs winning continued in Week 7. Underdogs of at least seven points have won outright in six out of seven weeks. We're back to highlight the top upset picks for Week 8 in the NFL.
Tampa Bay lost outright as -520 favorites in Week 7, and although the next five teams on the odds list were all safe from upsets, five underdogs still claimed outright victories.
The Houston Texans and Detroit Lions are the only teams with one win, and three clubs lead their divisions at 4-3 or worse, suggesting the parity in the league is unusually high.
Here are our top NFL upset picks for Week 8 (odds via Caesars Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook).
NFL Upset Picks for Week 8
NFL Week 8 Upset Predictions
Cardinals (+172)
The Cardinals' offense had been struggling while averaging 13 points per contest during a two-game losing streak before exploding for a season-high 42 points in Week 7 against New Orleans. Granted, the point total was inflated due to two defensive scores. Still, there's no denying that DeAndre Hopkins' return from a six-game suspension revitalized a stagnant Cardinals offense.
Some of the Minnesota Vikings' rest advantage in Week 8 against the Cardinals while coming off a bye week is mitigated because Arizona is rested too after playing on Thursday night. That gives players like the newly acquired Robbie Anderson time to get more comfortable with the offense, and injured pieces like running back James Conner an opportunity to get healthy.
Arizona is 10-2 against the spread on the road in 2022, including an 8-0 ATS record as road underdogs. The team is well-positioned to cover once again as four-point dogs, and it will also get a great chance to pull off an outright upset.
Check out our NFL Week 8 odds and lines analysis and our against-the-spread power rankings.
Commanders (+130)
When Commanders quarterback Carson Wentz was ruled out for a month after undergoing finger surgery, the immediate reaction from many was that Taylor Heinecke will provide an upgrade. After all, Wentz's 27th-ranked QBR of 34.1 didn't inspire confidence. Heinicke went a respectable 7-8 as a starter for Washington in 2021 while throwing 20 touchdown passes on 6.9 yards per attempt.
Heinicke passed his first test while leading the Commanders to a 23-21 upset of the Green Bay Packers. Heinicke can tuck the ball and run, which isn't a significant part of Wentz's game. That's why Washington totaled 166 yards on the ground while outrushing Green bay by 128 yards.
Now Washington faces the Indianapolis Colts, a team that just benched quarterback Matt Ryan in favor of Sam Ehlinger. The second-year passer doesn't figure to benefit from a strong running game, as Jonathan Taylor has recorded zero carries for 15-plus yards in each of his last three games.
Washington is off to its best start (3-4) since 2018, and the Commanders could easily pull off this road upset.
Check out our NFL ATS pick power rankings.
Giants (+136)
The Giants are this year's version of Rodney Dangerfield asking "when can I get some respect?"
Their 6-1 start is the team's best since 2008, and Daniel Jones is repeatedly performing well during crunch time, leading the league with five game-winning drives. Oddsmakers may be down on New York since its five wins by six or fewer points paces the league. Also, the Giants face the Seattle Seahawks in Week 8, the leader of the rugged NFC West at 4-3. However, winning close games shouldn't be viewed as a negative, or a guarantee that regression is imminent.
Saquon Barkley has logged four games with 125-plus scrimmage yards, and we look for the Giants to ride him to a 6-0 straight-up record as underdogs in 2022.
Where to Bet on NFL Upset Picks
NFL Week 8 upset picks made 10/25/2022 at 6:16 a.m. ET.
