NFL Upset Picks, Predictions: Top Underdog Picks for Week 15

Top NFL upset picks, and predictions for Week 15 of the 2022 season.
Mike Spector
Mike Spector

Last updated: December 18, 2022 4:39 AM EST • 3 min read

In Week 14, five underdogs won outright, while the five biggest favorites went 5-0. We are back to highlight the top upset picks for the NFL's Week 15 action.

Though the top five favorites made it out unscathed last week, it was not without drama. Dallas needed a last-minute touchdown to beat a one-win Houston team, and Kansas City nearly coughed up a 27-0 lead over Denver, holding on to win by six points.

Here are our top NFL upset picks for Week 15 (odds via BetMGM, DraftKings Sportsbook, and Caesars Sportsbook).

Check out our NFL best bets and all of our top NFL picks for Week 15.  

NFL Upset Picks for Week 15

  • Jacksonville Jaguars ML (+200 via BetMGM)
  • Pittsburgh Steelers ML (+115 via Caesars)
  • New York Giants ML (+118 via DraftKings)

NFL Upset Predictions for Week 15

Jaguars (+200)

We are taking a flier on a Jacksonville Jaguars team that should be riding high emotionally after winning for the first time in Tennessee since 2013 (they had lost eight straight road games against the Titans). The Jaguars defense had four takeaways (scored 20 points off those takeaways), and Trevor Lawrence has thrown 10 touchdown passes and no interceptions over the last five games. 

Meanwhile, Dallas has started slowly in its previous three games. The Cowboys were down 13-7 at the half to the New York Giants, led the Indianapolis Colts 21-19 after three quarters, and trailed the Texans 23-17 entering the fourth quarter. Dallas has scored 37.3 ppg during a four-game winning streak, but if the team starts slow again this week, Jacksonville has the type of explosive offense that can take advantage. 

Steelers (+115)

Shockingly, Carolina is in control of its own destiny to claim the NFC South after going 4-4 in its last eight games. This line swung wildly from last week's lookahead line of Steelers -3 given Kenny Pickett's injury and the Panthers' convincing win over the Seattle Seahawks, but we still find value in the underdogs. 

The Steelers are 55-26-2 straight up since drafting T.J. Watt in 2017 and are just 1-10 SU without him. And while Sam Darnold is one of two quarterbacks in the league with two-plus wins and zero losses, he barely has a higher completion percentage than the recently waived Baker Mayfield (58.1% compared to 57.8%), and his 142 yards per game leave something to be desired. If a Pittsburgh defense that ranks in the top half of the league in stopping the run can make Carolina one-dimensional, the Steelers could easily pull a road upset.

Giants (+118) 

These two teams face each other for the second time in three weeks, and New York had plenty of chances to win the first meeting, which ended in a tie. The Giants are 0-3-1 in division games this year and are winless in their last seven against NFC East opponents. However, the optimistic view is that Daniel Jones is 15-7 against the spread (32.0% ROI) on the road. He is also 24-15 (18.4% ROI) as an underdog and excels most as a road underdog, covering 14 of the 19 starts for a 42.6% ROI.

Given that these two teams played so evenly just a short time ago, we find value in backing them as slight underdogs despite the venue change.

Where to Bet on NFL Upset Picks 

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

NFL Week 15 upset picks made 12/13/2022 at 6:22 a.m. ET.

Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”