NFL Upset Picks, Predictions: Top Underdog Picks for Week 10
Week 9 was not a popular one for upsets, as just one of the top eight Moneyline favorites (Buffalo Bills) lost outright. We are back to highlight the top upset picks for the NFL's Week 10 action.
When the New York Jets stunned the Bills, who had -560 ML odds at one point in the week, it brought the running total to seven of the nine weeks in which we have seen at least one underdog of seven or more points win outright.
There are five underdogs with that big of point spreads this week, meaning there will be ample opportunities for bettors to cash in on big paydays if the trend continues.
Here are our top NFL upset picks for Week 10 (odds via Caesars Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook).
NFL Upset Picks for Week 10
NFL Week 10 Underdog Predictions
Seahawks (+122)
Tom Brady was one drive away from being three games under .500 for the first time in his career, as the Buccaneers trailed 13-9 with 44 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter last week.
However, don't let that drive cloud what was a pathetic offensive performance, as Brady's 58 passing attempts paid off in just 280 yards (4.8 YPA). In addition, the Buccaneers ran for 51 yards (2.6 yards per attempt) and lowered their league-worst average to 60.7 rushing yards per game.
Tampa Bay will have difficulty scoring against Seattle, as the Seahawks' defense has allowed 16.5 points per contest during a four-game winning streak. Geno Smith is coming off his seventh game this season with two or more touchdown passes (most in the NFL).
In addition, Kenneth Walker III provides balance offensively, as he is the first Seahawk with 50-plus rushing yards and a rushing touchdown in five consecutive games since Shaun Alexander (2006-07).
This game being played in Germany is the great equalizer, but Seattle has looked like the more complete team all season and should not be the underdog on a neutral field.
Broncos (+135)
Tennessee fought valiantly with a rookie quarterback away to the Chiefs last week and was one defensive stop away from pulling off a massive upset as a 14-point road underdog against Kansas City. However, the Titans totaled just 229 yards, their third game with fewer than 250 total yards this season.
Even if Ryan Tannehill is healthy, his 25th-ranked QBR (40.3) does nothing to suggest he will take pressure off Derrick Henry, who continues to face stacked boxes as the team's only true offensive threat.
We were encouraged by Denver's last offensive performance in London, especially in the second half with a late 80-yard game-winning drive.
Denver is 7-1 against the spread in its last eight meetings with Tennessee and has a significant scheduling advantage following a bye week, while the Titans played late on Sunday night last week.
Colts (+225)
The Colts have the dubious distinction of being the only team to have trailed entering the fourth quarter in every game this season. However, it is fair to wonder about Las Vegas' motivation level and psyche after blowing another huge lead last week.
The Raiders have three losses this season when leading by 17-plus points after five such losses from 1960-2021. Las Vegas is the only AFC team without a road win (0-5), and though this game is at home, the Raiders are 0-5 in one-possession games.
Indianapolis has averaged 9.7 points per game during a three-game losing streak and is coming off its fewest total yards (121) in a game since 1997. However, if anything can spark a struggling offense, it is a date with the 28th-ranked total defense (371.3 yards per game) and 28th-ranked scoring defense (25.1 ppg allowed).
In addition, the Colts may receive an added jolt of energy under interim head coach Jeff Saturday after Frank Reich’s firing.
Where to Bet on NFL Upset Picks
NFL Week 10 upset picks made 11/08/2022 at 5:38 a.m. ET.
