NFL Upset Picks: We Rank Every Underdog Bet for Week 14

We thrived last week with our NFL upset picks, nailing our best upset pick and best value pick as outright underdogs at +125 and +190 odds, respectively. 

The first 11 games of Week 13 from Thanksgiving through the 1 p.m. ET Sunday slate included seven upsets, and my NFL predictions for Week 14 hope to correctly identify the underdog winners of this week. Included once again among my three predictions are my favorite upset pick, my best value pick, and my top long-shot underdog.

Best NFL upset picks for Week 14

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 14 based on the latest NFL odds.

Best NFL underdog bets this week

Jaguars over Colts (+110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Indianapolis went 7-1 over its first eight games while averaging 33.8 points per game and committing just four total turnovers. However, the Colts have now lost three of their last four while averaging 21.8 points and committing eight total turnovers in that span.

The news that quarterback Daniel Jones is playing on a fractured fibula is not inspiring, especially since the team is coming off its second-lowest yards total and third-lowest yards per play average of the season in a home loss to Houston.

One could argue that the wrong team is favored in this matchup, as Jacksonville has won nine consecutive games against Indianapolis at EverBank Stadium. 

The Jaguars definitely have more momentum after winning four of five since their bye week. Jacksonville's ranking in the top 12 of the league in pressure rate and pressure rate without blitzing bodes well for its chances of frustrating the immobile Jones.

FanDuel is one of the only best sports betting sites offering better than +108. Its +110 odds carry a 47.62% implied probability and would net $11 in profit if the Jaguars beat the Colts at home for a tenth straight time.

Cowboys over Lions (+145) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

If Dallas pulls a Thursday night upset of Detroit, it would buck a ridiculous trend that the Lions have won 14 straight games off a loss with Jared Goff and Dan Campbell as a quarterback and head coach since November of 2022. In fact, Detroit had covered the spread in 13 straight games off a loss before having that streak end in an overtime victory over the Giants in Week 12.

After ranking 12th in Pass Block Win Rate, ninth in sack rate, and 17th in average time to sack last year, Detroit’s numbers have plummeted to 30th, 15th, and 32nd, respectively, this season.

Meanwhile, Dallas is riding high after winning consecutive games against both of last year’s Super Bowl participants. Its improving defense is a big reason for its recent success. 

The Cowboys allowed a 65 Total QBR, 143.0 rush yards per game, and a 53% third-down percentage through the first nine games. But over the last three, those numbers have improved to a 47 Total QBR, 69.7 rushing yards per game, and a 35% third-down percentage allowed. 

bet365 is the only one of the best sports betting apps offering better than +144. If the Cowboys send the Lions to back-to-back regular-season losses for the first time in five seasons, my $10 winning wager would return $14.50 in profits.

If you don't prefer the moneyline like I do, our Gary Pearson breaks down why he thinks Dallas will cover the spread in his early Cowboys vs. Lions prediction.

Bengals over Bills (+225) ⭐⭐

In Joe Burrow’s first game back under center for Cincinnati, the Bengals completed the fifth-largest outright upset in Thanksgiving history as seven-point underdogs.

Burrow snapped a five-game losing streak as an underdog, and improved to 20-11 ATS overall in that role. He is also now a profitable 10-10-1 SU and 18-3 ATS as an underdog of three or more points covering those by more than six points per game.

Buffalo’s offense was clearly one-dimensional last week against Pittsburgh, rarely pushing the ball downfield via the pass with both starting tackles out with injury. The Bills will likely need to be firing on all cylinders offensively and not just relying on James Cook’s legs to beat the Bengals, especially if this game turns into a shootout.

The +225 moneyline odds offered at Caesars trumps the +220 odds on the low end of the market, and would return $0.50 more in profit ($22.50 compared to $22) on a $10 wager if Cincinnati wins its second straight game.

As our NFL weather report for Week 14 notes, the forecast could also play a role in this game, as it's set to be bitterly cold with a good chance of snow.

NFL Week 14 underdog parlay

Here are the best parlay odds for our NFL Week 14 upset picks via Caesars:

• Jaguars
• Cowboys
• Bengals

Best odds: +1549 ($10 to win $154.94)

NFL underdog rankings for every Week 14 game

NFL expert picks for Week 14

• NFL picks against the spread
• Survivor pool picks for Week 14
• NFL AI predictions for Week 14
• NFL upset picks
• NFL weather report Week 14