NFL Upset Picks: We Rank Every Underdog Bet for Week 11

Five underdogs won outright last week, which has me excited to comprise another trio of NFL upset picks for Week 11.

This week's NFL slate is set up for some competitive action, as nine of the 15 games have point spreads of 3.5 or fewer points. But we look further down the odds leaderboard to identify our best value pick and long-shot upsets as part of our NFL Week 11 predictions.

🚨 Best NFL upset picks for Week 11

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 11 based on the latest NFL odds.

💰 Best NFL underdog bets this week

🎯 Lions (+125) over Eagles ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Quarterback Jared Goff and head coach Dan Campbell did what they do best together, bouncing back to win and cover the spread for the 13th consecutive time following a loss. That is the longest streak for any team in the last 30 years.

The Lions have been fast starters of late, covering the first-half spread in 71.4% of their games over the last four seasons (45-18-1). While Detroit is on the road for the second consecutive week, it does have the rest advantage over an Eagles team that played on Monday night.

The early returns on Campbell taking over the play-calling duties worked well, too, as the Lions used pre-snap motion 57.4% of the time (the second-highest rate in the Campbell era). That led to Detroit scoring on each of its first eight drives en route to its third win of 20-plus points this season.

bet365 is the only one of the best sports betting sites offering better than +120. If the Lions upset the defending champions, my $10 winning wager would return $12.50 in profits.

🎯 Panthers (+168) over Falcons ⭐⭐⭐

Just when it looked like Carolina was building momentum with Bryce Young winning four straight starts, it inexplicably lost to the Saints at home last week. That was the Panthers’ second straight home loss after starting 3-0 in their home stadium.

This NFL underdog bet is a fade of a Falcons team that will be dealing with jetlag after playing in Germany last week. In addition, Atlanta allowed Jonathan Taylor to rush for a franchise-best 244 yards. His 286 scrimmage yards were also the most in team history, and his 156 rush yards after contact were the third-most in a game since 2009.

I look for Carolina to employ the same formula with running back Rico Dowdle, who also has a 200-yard rushing game to his name this season with two others of 130-plus yards. Prior to last week, the Panthers at 5-4 were just the second team since the 1970 merger to have a winning record while being listed as an underdog through their first nine games of the season.

The underdog role suits them better, and I am making this wager through FanDuel, as there is a sizable difference between its +168 odds and the +150 price at the low end of the market. A $10 winning wager would net $16.80 in profits compared to the $15 through the shortest odds.

🎯 Bengals (+210) over Steelers ⭐⭐

Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is coming off his sixth career game with a completion percentage under 52% and at least two interceptions. In addition, his 51.6% completion rate was his worst in a game over the last five seasons. While Cincinnati’s defense can’t stop a nose bleed, the Bengals are the first team since the 1966 Giants to lose consecutive games despite scoring 38-plus points in each.

The Bengals have averaged 32.8 points per game in Joe Flacco’s four starts, while the veteran has an 11:2 TD-to-INT ratio. One of those was a 33-31 home win against Pittsburgh three games ago, which makes these +210 odds for them to complete the season sweep appealing.

bet365 is the only one of our best sports betting apps offering a price better than +196. Its +210 odds carry a 32.26% implied probability and would net $21 in profits if Cincinnati upsets Pittsburgh for a second straight time.

🚀 NFL Week 11 underdog parlay

Here are the best parlay odds for our NFL Week 11 upset picks via bet365:

• Lions (+125)
• Panthers (+165)
• Bengals (+210)

Best odds: +1739 ($10 to win $173.92)

🏈 NFL underdog rankings for every Week 11 game