NFL Upset Picks for the Divisional Round: Ranking Best Underdogs & Moneyline Bets This Week

San Francisco was the only team that was an underdog all week that won outright in the opening round, and we aim to cash in on more NFL upset picks in the Divisional Round.

My NFL Divisional Round predictions look to capitalize on the value out there with three of this weekend’s four games having a spread of 3.5 or fewer points.

🏈 NFL Divisional Round upset rankings

See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this season.

🚨 Best NFL upset picks for the Divisional Round

Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game this season.

Bills over Broncos (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

For the second straight week the Bills have seen the line in their playoff matchup jump the fence, as they originally were on a path to be just the third favorite over a No. 1 seed in the Divisional Round since 1970.

Perhaps the early betting love for Denver that caused the Broncos to switch from underdogs to slight favorites is that Buffalo is now just 1-8 in its last nine road playoff games. 

While the Bills are dealing with a myriad of injuries on offense, this is still a team that beat the Broncos 31-7 in the playoffs last year, and only dipped from second to third in the NFL in EPA per play since then.

Texans over Patriots (+136) ⭐⭐⭐

Houston turned in a dominant defensive performance against Pittsburgh on Monday, out-scoring the Steelers offense with its defense. It was also Pittsburgh’s first playoff game since 1989 where it did not convert a single third down in the first half.

This line would likely be a lot closer to a pick’em if Texans wide receiver Nico Collins was not currently in concussion protocol. 

Even if Collins misses the game, Houston still has won nine games in a row on the strength of a defense that ranks second in Defensive Efficiency. It also dominated a Steelers offensive line that had ranked third in Pass Block Win Rate by sacking Aaron Rodgers four times and hitting him on another 12 dropbacks. 

Bears over Rams (+176) ⭐⭐

The Bears earned their spot in the Divisional Round by completing their seventh fourth quarter comeback this season (most in the NFL) and their largest comeback in playoff history.

Chicago has the offense to win a track meet against the high-scoring Rams. Bears quarterback Caleb Williams completed just two of five throws of 15-plus air yards for 40 yards in the first half last week. He improved those numbers to 7-of-13 passing for 166 yards and a touchdown on such throws in the second half.

When Carolina upset Los Angeles at home in Week 13, it forced three turnovers from Matthew Stafford, tied for his most since joining the Rams in 2021. Chicago led the league with 33 takeaways and a plus-22 turnover differential, and was 10-1 when it won the turnover battle.

🚀 NFL Divisional Round upset parlay