Titans vs. Packers Picks, Predictions Week 11: Green Bay Looks to Stay Alive

Check out our best Titans vs. Packers Week 11 NFL Thursday Night Football picks and predictions!

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 11, 2024 2:44 PM EDT • 4 minute read

Week 11 of the 2022 NFL season begins with the Tennessee Titans visiting the Green Bay Packers for Thursday Night Football. Read on for our Titans-Packers NFL picks.

The Titans weathered the storm in the absence of quarterback Ryan Tannehill, as they went 1-1 under rookie Malik Willis. However, the team is happy to have a healthy Tannehill back under center, as he won his fifth consecutive start last week.

Meanwhile, the Packers proved oddsmakers wrong and showed signs of life last week in a game where QB Aaron Rodgers was a home underdog of more than 3 points for the first time in his career. The Packers' win against the Dallas Cowboys was historic, as the Cowboys were 195-0 (including the playoffs) in games where they were leading by 14-plus points entering the fourth quarter, per ESPN Stats & Info.

However, the Packers outscored the Cowboys 17-0 in the fourth quarter and overtime, and snapped a five-game losing skid.

Here are our Titans-Packers NFL picks for Week 11 (odds via PointsBet, FanDuel Sportsbook, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out Thursday Night Football prop picks and Aaron Rodgers prop picks.

Titans vs. Packers Game Info

Date: Thursday, Nov. 17, 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: Prime Video
Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
Weather: 30 degrees, 24% chance of precipitation, 12-mph W wind

Titans vs. Packers Odds

Titans vs. Packers Odds Analysis

The Packers have commanded the lion's share of the betting handle on the spread. While just 47% of the tickets are on Green Bay, those account for 80% of the handle. As a result, the spread has swung from a consensus opening line of Packers -1 to -3 as of Thursday morning.

The Over Under has dropped only slightly from the opening line of 41.5 to 41 with the support of 57% of the tickets and 54% of the handle on the Under.

Titans vs. Packers Picks

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Titans vs. Packers ATS Pick

Packers -3 (-107) ★

We would have loved this spread a lot more if it never got to the key number of 3, thus making Green Bay a one-star play on this line, given its minimal value compared to when the number was at -2.5 or lower.

Tennessee is 6-0 against teams currently under .500, so it is not like its 6-3 record has come against the most challenging schedule. And while Green Bay fits the bill of another sub-.500 opponent, it may have turned the corner with its best offensive performance against one of the league’s best defenses.

Green Bay totaled 415 yards and 31 points against Dallas, both season-highs for the vaunted Cowboys defense. In addition, Rodgers is coming off his first game this season with three or more touchdown passes. However, the fact that all of the touchdowns went to rookie receiver Christian Watson is the most important, as Rodgers may have finally found the go-to wide receiver he has been missing all season.

Check out our Titans vs. Packers same-game parlay picks!

Titans vs. Packers O/U Pick

Over 41.5 (-115) ★★★

The Titans have covered the spread in seven straight games and have seen the Under cash in six straight, yet we are happy to fade both trends.

Rodgers had a season-high 216 passing yards and three touchdowns versus man coverage last week. His passing success was largely due to Green Bay’s impressive second-down rushing numbers. The Packers had an 81% designed rushing percentage on second down, as their 17 attempts in that situation went for 144 yards, all of which are the highest of any game started by Rodgers.

Those numbers resulted in an average third-down distance of two yards, the lowest average by a team in any game in the previous 12 years. The Packers had a season-high 39 rushing attempts last week, and their newfound offensive balance will give head coach Mike Vrabel’s team headaches to prepare for this week.

Titans vs. Packers Prop Pick

Rodgers Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-105) ★★★

The Titans' secondary received terrible news as Caleb Farley, the team’s 2021 first-round pick, will undergo season-ending surgery for a herniated disc. Given how effectively Green Bay ran the football last week, Tennessee will likely make stopping the run its top priority, which should have Rodgers in for a big day against a depleted Titans pass defense.

Where to Bet on Titans vs. Packers Picks

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Titans-Packers picks made 11/15/2022 at 5:30 a.m. ET.

Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”