NFL Thanksgiving Long Shots: Who Will Be the Holiday Hero for Every Team?

Thanksgiving is for gorging on turkey and sweating out high-upside NFL bets all day long. We're here to oblige.
Detroit Lions safety Kerby Joseph (31) tackles Baltimore Ravens tight end Charlie Kolar (88) as we break down our NFL Thanksgiving long shots to score a touchdown today.
Pictured: Detroit Lions safety Kerby Joseph (31) tackles Baltimore Ravens tight end Charlie Kolar (88) as we break down our NFL Thanksgiving long shots to score a touchdown today. Photo by Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images.
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Thanksgiving is about two things: stuffing your face with turkey and sweating out a potential massive payday on your NFL Thanksgiving predictions for 10 straight hours.

While I can't help with the former, I did spend my early holiday hours scouring the player props market looking for the best NFL Thanksgiving long shots to score a touchdown for all six teams taking the field today. All of these bets can be found at +500 odds (or longer), so if any of our TD picks hits, we'll have some cash to spend on Black Friday.


πŸš€ Best NFL long-shot parlay for Thanksgiving

If you're looking to sweat a massive payday on Thanksgiving, you've come to the right spot. We parlayed these six bets together at FanDuel, and the payoff is so massive that we weren't even allowed to place a $5 bet - the max wager was $4.99.

For roughly the price of the average cup of coffee, you can wager on those six players above to score a touchdown today and earn just shy of $1 million. If you're feeling less adventurous, you can pair any two bets from the same game and still return a roughly 50/1 payout or better.

Here's a look at our best long-shot parlay bets for Thanksgiving via FanDuel:

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🎯 NFL Thanksgiving long shots: Best value bets to score TD today

See all of our experts' NFL picks for every game based on the latest NFL odds.

Player Best odds Profit ($10 bet) Probability
Josh Whyle, TE, Packers +1100 via FanDuel $110 8.33%
Isaac TeSlaa, WR, Lions +500 via FanDuel $50 16.67%
Tyquan Thornton, WR, Chiefs +700 via bet365 $70 12.50%
Ryan Flournoy, WR, Cowboys +700 via DraftKings $70 12.50%
Samaje Perine, RB, Bengals +600 via bet365 $60 14.29%
Charlie Kolar, TE, Ravens +1100 via FanDuel $110 8.33%

🔍️ Find the best odds for every bet

Search the best NFL player prop odds for any team or player across every market from legal sportsbooks in your area.


🏈 Packers vs. Lions TD odds & picks

See all of our Packers vs. Lions anytime touchdown scorer predictions for today's game.

πŸ§€ Josh Whyle, TE, Packers (+1100)

When Tucker Kraft went down with a season-ending injury in Week 9, former second-round pick Luke Musgrave - who was drafted a round earlier than Kraft in 2023 - was expected to assume the mantle of TE1 for the Packers' offense.

Unfortunately for Green Bay, Musgrave hasn't been prolific as a pass-catching option and has been a non-factor as a blocker with just 15 snaps in pass protection all season. He saw his total snaps drop to 19 and 25 the last two games with John FitzPatrick and Josh Whyle both out-snapping him last week.

At 262 pounds, Fitzpatrick is the better blocker of the two, but Whyle has a closer all-around profile to Kraft with some explosive upside due to his size (6-7, 248 pounds) and athleticism. He's already scored a touchdown two weeks ago, and if he does it again, we'd turn a $10 bet into a $110 profit to kick off Thanksgiving Day.

🦁 Isaac TeSlaa, WR, Lions (+500)

The Lions gave up multiple picks to move up and draft Isaac TeSlaa in the third round this year, though it's been a slow start to his NFL career with just four catches through 11 games. His snap share has increased each of the last three weeks with a season-high 28 snaps last week - seeing 41.2% of the Lions' offensive plays in an overtime win over the Giants.

He'll have every opportunity to make an impact today with receiver Kalif Raymond (ankle) and tight ends Sam LaPorta (back) and Brock Wright (neck) all ruled out against the Packers. That could thrust TeSlaa, who is also questionable (hand) but expected to play, into a major role for the Lions' offense in a must-win game to keep pace in the NFC North.

If the Packers send extra pressure to attack Detroit's injury-riddled offensive line, TeSlaa could find himself with pockets of space to operate over the middle as a safety valve for QB Jared Goff. His expected playing time alone makes him a value at these +500 odds to score, which would turn a winning $10 bet into a $50 profit.

If TeSlaa can't go, I'd keep an eye on tight end Ross Dwelley, whom our NFL expert Esten McLaren is targeting with his Thanksgiving anytime touchdown scorer predictions.


🏈 Chiefs vs. Cowboys TD odds & picks

πŸ”΄ Tyquan Thornton, WR, Chiefs (+700)

The Chiefs haven't relied on Tyquan Thornton quite as much as they did through the first four weeks, when he averaged just over 40 snaps per game with a team-high three touchdowns. But he remains the team's best deep threat and has seen his snap share increase each of the last three weeks with Kansas City's offense in a rut.

The Cowboys' defense has been sieve-like this season, yet they've seemingly overhauled their rush defense with the blockbuster trade for defensive tackle Quinnen Williams. Their secondary is still among the worst in the NFL, though, with opposing receivers scoring a league-high 18 touchdowns against this pass defense through 11 games.

Dallas plays a ton of zone coverage, but the Chiefs thrive when attacking static zones, so I expect Dallas to rely more on man coverage principles to force Kansas City's hand. That plays right into Thornton's hands as a deep threat, and I love these +700 odds with a $10 bet returning a $70 profit if he scores his fourth touchdown of the season.

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🀠 Ryan Flournoy, WR, Cowboys (+700)

For as bad as the Cowboys' defense has been this year, their offense has been one of the NFL's most explosive units with Dak Prescott leading the league in completions (276), first downs (146), and QBR (74.0) entering Thanksgiving.

Seventeen of those completions have gone to second-year wideout Ryan Flournoy, including two touchdowns in his last three contests. Flournoy was held without a catch last week against the Eagles' All-Pro secondary but still played 33 snaps - his fourth consecutive week seeing the field for at least 43% of the Cowboys' offensive plays.

Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo loves to bring extra pressure, and Prescott excels at taking advantage when his receivers are left in single coverage. If Flournoy breaks free and scores his third touchdown in four games, he'd turn a $10 bet into a $70 profit at these +700 odds.


🏈 Bengals vs. Ravens TD odds & picks

🐯 Samaje Perine, RB, Bengals (+600)

The Bengals have been forced to use leading rusher Chase Brown as an every-down back with Samaje Perine out with injury, and he's produced in the box score. Yet Cincinnati's offense has struggled as a whole, and offensive coordinator Dan Pitcher has already hinted at a 50/50 split between the two when Perine returns.

I wouldn't be surprised if Perine sees an even more generous split given his prowess as a pass blocker, which is critical with QB Joe Burrow returning from an injury that sidelined him the last 10 weeks. More snaps mean more opportunity for the ninth-year veteran back, who scored his first touchdown of 2025 in his last healthy game in Week 8.

Whether as a rusher or a pass catcher, I like Perine's chances to make an impact in this division rivalry at these generous +600 odds, which would turn a winning $10 bet into a $60 profit if Perine scores for the second time in three games.

πŸ¦β€β¬› Charlie Kolar, TE, Ravens (+1100)

Everyone knows about Ravens tight end Mark Andrews (+115) and Isaiah Likely (+270), who both feature relatively short odds to score tonight. But what about Charlie Kolar, the overlooked but reliable third tight end for Baltimore's offense?

The former fourth-round pick has played at least 30% of his team's snaps in all but one game this season, and he's scored twice across the Ravens' active five-game win streak. Compare that to Likely, who still hasn't scored this year despite oddsmakers pricing him as more than three times more likely to do so against the Bengals.

Cincinnati's defense is statistically one of the worst of all time, and they've allowed 87.5 yards per game and 13 touchdowns to opposing tight ends - both the most in the NFL by a country mile. There is clearly value in betting on a tight end to score tonight, and Kolar feels like the best bang for your buck with a $10 bet paying $110 in profit if he does.

💡 More NFL predictions

Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and NFL Week 13 predictions for every game this week.


πŸ¦ƒ Thanksgiving expert picks

πŸ’°More Thanksgiving Day picks


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