Texans vs. Chiefs Prediction Tonight: Odds & Picks for Sunday Night Football

My Texans vs. Chiefs prediction breaks down this Sunday Night Football matchup, which has major playoff implications for both teams.

Kickoff from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo., is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock). The Chiefs are a 3.5-point betting favorite, as Patrick Mahomes looks to improve to 6-1 and earn his sixth straight victory, including playoffs, against the Texans. With Kansas City sitting at 6-6, I am targeting the Under on Houston’s team total of 19.5 points as part of my NFL Week 14 predictions.

Texans vs. Chiefs prediction & expert picks

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 14.

Sunday Night Football preview & score prediction

Weather should be a huge factor in this game, with temperatures dropping well below 30 degrees at night. Under head coach DeMeco Ryans, the Texans are 0-2 at Arrowhead Stadium, with both games being played in sub-40-degree weather. 

With this being the first time Houston has played in cold weather this season, I am expecting a sluggish day offensively, leading to the Texans cashing their team total Under of 19.5 points (-104). 

Positive regression coming for the Chiefs' defense?

Kansas City’s defense through the years has been too good under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to continue playing this way. The Chiefs' defense ranks 27th in sacks, tied for 26th in turnovers, 23rd in yards per play, and 26th in third-down rate.

Its splits when blitzing are also mind-boggling compared to the success it has had in recent years. From 2022-24, Kansas City’s blitz defense ranked first in yards per play, third in success rate, and second in pressure rate. Those numbers this season have plummeted to 31st in yards per play, 26th in success rate, and 28th in pressure rate. 

Kansas City is also allowing a 70.2% completion percentage when blitzing, the worst mark in the NFL. 

Aside from expecting regression, one positive trend for Kansas City’s defense is that it has allowed an NFL-best minus-33 yards after the catch over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That plays exceptionally well in this matchup against a Texans offense that has the fourth-lowest rate of its passing yards coming from yards after the catch.

The Texans are tied as the most profitable team to the Under this season, cashing it in nine of their 12 games. But I am foregoing the full-game total and focusing only on Houston’s team total O/U of 19.5 points. 

The Under is juiced as high as -118 at 54.13% implied odds on the high end of the market. So I am taking advantage of the best return through FanDuel’s -104 odds at the same number, which would net $9.62 in profits on a winning $10 wager.

Score prediction: Chiefs 21, Texans 14

Key matchup to watch on SNF

Patrick Mahomes vs. Texans' front seven

One concerning trend for the Chiefs is that the Texans have the second-best opponent third-down conversion rate (33.8%) in the NFL this season, while Mahomes is 0-2 against top-five third-down defenses in 2025 (Broncos and Chargers). However, Houston’s fierce pass rush and Kansas City’s overall lack of running success should force Mahomes to use his legs more.

Corey Scott also expects Mahomes to run more in his Texans vs. Chiefs first TD scorer predictions, as does Brenden Schaeffer in his Texans vs. Chiefs same-game parlay.

Houston allows a league-high 6.4 yards per carry to quarterbacks and the second-most explosive runs. Meanwhile, no quarterback has more explosive runs than Mahomes, so it may only take one big scramble to surpass this projected total.

Our Phil Wood has three more picks with his best Texans vs. Chiefs player props and Esten McLaren is backing Mahomes as well with his Texans vs. Chiefs anytime touchdown scorer predictions.

Best prop bet: Patrick Mahomes Over 22.5 rushing yards (-111 via DraftKings)

Texans vs. Chiefs odds

See live NFL odds for every game in 14.

Texans vs. Chiefs betting trends

Texans vs. Chiefs injury report

Texans vs. Chiefs weather

Temperatures in Kansas City on Sunday evening are expected to drop to 20°F, with wind gusts of up to 14 mph. There is a 0% chance of precipitation.

Check our NFL weather report for the latest forecasts and betting impacts for every game this week.

How to watch Sunday Night Football: Texans vs. Chiefs

• Date: Sunday, Dec. 7
• Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
• Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
• TV: NBC/Peacock

All of our Week 14 NFL game picks

• Broncos vs. Raiders player props
• Rams vs. Cardinals player props
• Bears vs. Packers prediction
• Bears vs. Packers player props
• Bears vs. Packers anytime touchdown scorer predictions
• Texans vs. Chiefs prediction
• Texans vs. Chiefs player props
• Texans vs. Chiefs anytime touchdown scorer predictions
• Texans vs. Chiefs first touchdown scorer predictions

NFL expert picks for Week 14

Follow all of our NFL analysis for Week 14 throughout the week.

• NFL picks against the spread Week 14
• NFL survivor picks Week 14
• NFL AI predictions Week 14
• NFL weather report Week 14
• NFL upset picks Week 14
• NFL player props Week 14
• NFL best bets Week 14
• NFL anytime touchdown scorer predictions Week 14
• NFL first touchdown scorer predictions Week 14
• NFL 2+ touchdown scorer predictions Week 14
• NFL anytime touchdown scorer parlay Week 14