Texans vs. Chiefs Prediction & Opening Odds for Sunday Night Football: NFL Week 14

My Texans vs. Chiefs prediction examines the opening odds for this massive Sunday Night Football matchup with both teams in need of a win as they battle for a playoff spot. Kickoff from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo., is set for 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock). 

My early picks and NFL Week 14 predictions eschew the point spread which sees Kansas City as a 4.5-point betting favorite, and instead targets the total with all of the injury questions entering this game.

Early Texans vs. Chiefs prediction & betting preview

Stay ahead with the rest of our early NFL picks for Week 14.

Under 43.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Houston’s defense held the Indianapolis Colts to 16 points last week, making it the only team to keep the Colts to fewer than 20 points this season. While the defense got home for just one sack of the injured Daniel Jones, it hit him on five other occasions, and had him looking uncomfortable in the pocket.

The week prior, the Texans sacked Bills quarterback Josh Allen a career-high eight times, which accounted for 8 of the 28 sacks he had taken all season. The Houston pass rush is an avenue to upsetting Kansas City this week, as the Chiefs could be without as many as three starters on the offensive line: Trey Smith (ankle), Jawaan Taylor (elbow), and Josh Simmons (wrist).

Conversely, Andy Reid’s Chiefs defense has three extra days to prepare for C.J. Stroud. Stroud looked rusty at times in his first game back from a concussion, and I do not expect him to repeat his 6-for-7 performance for 79 yards and a passer rating of 113.7 on third down like he did in last week’s upset of the Colts.

Under backers will find the best number at DraftKings, as it is the only one of our best sports betting sites with an O/U higher than 43. Its -110 odds carry a 52.38% implied probability, and would net $9.09 in profits on a winning $10 wager.

Live Texans vs. Chiefs odds: Week 14

See the latest NFL odds for every game in Week 14.

Texans vs. Chiefs opening odds

• Moneyline: Texans +210 | Chiefs -255
• Spread: Texans +4.5 (-115) | Chiefs -4.5 (-105)
• Over/Under: Over 42.5 (-115) | Under 42.5 (-105)

Texans vs. Chiefs line movement

The spread has not budged from an opening number of -4.5, but the juice being as high as -118 at +4.5 suggests the line is more likely to come down to +4 than it is to tick up to +5. That is not surprising considering the Texans are coming off a big win against the then-first-place team in their division, and Kansas City lost on national television on Thanksgiving.

The O/U has a wide range from 42.5 on the low end of the market to 43.5 on the high end. Early weather reports are calling for a high temperature of 19 degrees in Kansas City on Sunday night. But the weather should not affect the total as much as the betting splits will, given a 10% chance of precipitation and relatively calm winds.

Texans vs. Chiefs trends & betting notes: SNF

• Houston has won seven of its last nine games after an 0-3 start
• The Texans defense leads the league in opponents’ points per game (16.5) and opponents’ yards per game (265.7)
• Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are 34-11 SU on any extended prep times as a duo in the regular season (not counting Week 1), but are 3-4 SU in such games when facing a team with a better record
• Kansas City is 5-0 SU against Houston in its last five head-to-head meetings dating back to 2020

How to watch Texans vs. Chiefs: Sunday Night Football

• Date: Sunday, Dec. 7
• Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
• TV: NBC/Peacock