Texans vs. Chiefs AI Picks: SNF Predictions & Best Prop Bet for Sunday Night Football

The defending AFC champions could be on the ropes tonight when the Kansas City Chiefs (6-6) host the Houston Texans (7-5) on Sunday Night Football (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC), as our Texans vs. Chiefs AI predictions expect an upset in this SNF matchup from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo.

We've trained the latest ChatGPT model to offer its exact score prediction and projected stat leaders for both teams, as well as its best SNF prop bet tonight. You can catch the rest of our (human) expert picks with our NFL Week 14 predictions.

Texans vs. Chiefs AI predictions: Sunday Night Football

See all of our NFL AI predictions for Week 14 with projected scores for every game.

🔢 Texans projected stats

• Passing leader: C.J. Stroud – 25/38, 284 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
• Rushing leader: Woody Marks – 17 carries, 76 yards, 1 TD
• Receiving leader: Nico Collins – 7 receptions, 101 yards, 1 TD

🔢 Chiefs projected stats

• Passing leader: Patrick Mahomes – 26/39, 297 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
• Rushing leader: Kareem Hunt – 16 carries, 68 yards
• Receiving leader: Travis Kelce – 8 receptions, 86 yards, 1 TD

🔮 Texans vs. Chiefs prediction

Houston gets a narrow edge because its offensive profile travels well into Arrowhead: efficient early-down passing, better protection as of late, and the ability to win in the intermediate areas without relying on low-percentage explosives. C.J. Stroud’s comfort against pressure and Houston’s willingness to stay aggressive on early downs help neutralize Kansas City’s pass rush, while Woody Mark's volume keeps the Texans ahead of the chains and protects Stroud from extended third-and-long situations.

Kansas City still moves the ball behind Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, especially in key moments, but the Chiefs have struggled to consistently separate against teams that can match them drive for drive. If Houston avoids turnovers and finishes one extra red-zone trip, they’re positioned to control tempo late and turn this into a possession game. In a matchup that profiles closer than the line suggests, the model leans toward the road upset.

Score prediction: Texans 27, Chiefs 24

Best player prop bet for Sunday Night Football

See all of our experts' NFL picks based on the latest NFL odds.

Nico Collins Over 66.5 receiving yards

This matchup sets up well for Nico Collins because Houston’s offense is likely to lean into its intermediate passing game to counter Kansas City’s pass rush and limit extended dropbacks. Collins has consistently been Stroud’s most reliable option against man coverage and split-safety looks, and the Chiefs have shown a willingness to concede yards between the numbers while prioritizing explosive-play prevention on the outside. With Houston expected to stay aggressive and throw at volume in a tight game script, Collins’ target floor projects comfortably into the high single digits.

The projected 27–24 outcome supports sustained Texans drives rather than a clock-draining script, which keeps Collins involved throughout all four quarters. As Kansas City adjusts coverage toward containing downfield shots and red-zone threats, Collins’ role as the primary chain mover becomes even more valuable. If Houston reaches the mid-to-high 30s in pass attempts, Collins clearing this number aligns cleanly with both his projected stat line and the overall flow of the game.

Best bet: Nico Collins Over 66.5 receiving yards (-112 via DraftKings)

How to watch Sunday Night Football: Texans vs. Chiefs

• Date: Sunday, Dec. 7
• Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
• Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
• TV: NBC