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Jaylen Waddle of the Miami Dolphins runs with the ball during a preseason game against the Atlanta Falcons.
Jaylen Waddle of the Miami Dolphins runs with the ball during a preseason game against the Atlanta Falcons. Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images via AFP.

The Miami Dolphins are heavy favorites heading into their matchup with the Houston Texans. Read on for our top Texans-Dolphins NFL picks.

The Texans, who have made it clear that they intend to tank for a quarterback, are officially on first overall pick watch. Are the Texans going to show up when they travel to Miami to face the red-hot Dolphins, or have they already mailed it in this season?

Here are our Week 12 picks for the Texans-Dolphins game (odds via BetMGM, DraftKings Sportsbook, and PointsBet; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Texans vs. Dolphins Game Info

Date: Sunday, Nov. 27, 1:00 p.m. ET
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Weather: 83 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 6-mph SE wind

Texans vs. Dolphins Odds

Texans vs. Dolphins Odds Analysis

The Dolphins were initially favored by 9.5 points, but since the Texans benched quarterback Davis Mills in favor of Kyle Allen, the spread has climbed to 14.

Despite the change at quarterback, the total opened at 45 and is now trading at 47.

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Texans vs. Dolphins Picks

  • Spread: Dolphins -13.5 (-107 via PointsBet)
  • Over/Under Under 47 (-110 via BetMGM)
  • Prop: Mike Gesicki anytime touchdown (+145 via DraftKings)

Texans vs. Dolphins ATS Pick

Dolphins -13.5 (-107) ★★★★

I believe we've reached the point in the season when the Texans have completely mailed it in and are focused on securing the first overall pick. The Davis Mills experience is over, as the Texans have already moved on to Kyle Allen as the starting quarterback against the Dolphins in Week 12. The Texans didn't show any signs of fight in Week 11 against the Washington Commanders, while the Dolphins possess an offensive unit that is capable of scoring points at will. 

As long as this spread remains below 14 points, I strongly favor the Dolphins. In Week 12, I make the Dolphins as 14.5-point favorites over the Texans, and I'm pleased to see that we can buy this line below 14 points. As far as the spread of Dolphins -13.5 is concerned, there is no variation in the market, but PointsBet offers the lowest juice (-107) on the spread. 

Check out our Super Bowl picks!

Texans vs. Dolphins O/U Pick

Under 47 (-110) ★★★

With Allen as their quarterback, I just don't see how the Texans are going to be able to come up with the points needed against the Dolphins. There is no doubt that the Dolphins don't boast an elite defense, but aside from Dameon Pierce, the Texans' offense doesn't appear to be doing anything. 

This total should be trading closer to 45.5, so I will be playing the Under by taking the extra 1.5 points. In my opinion, this will be a blowout during which the Texans will contribute little or no points to the final score. The Dolphins will run the ball once they have gained a significant lead in order to bleed the clock. My prediction is that it will be very close to the total, but I think you're looking at a score of 35-10 or 31-10 for the Dolphins.

Check out our Patriots vs. Vikings same-game parlay!

Texans vs. Dolphins Prop Pick

Gesicki anytime touchdown (+145) ★★★

Since Tyreek Hill (-150) and Jaylen Waddle (-130) both trade at minus-money to find the end zone against the Texans in Week 12, my attention turns to tight end Mike Gesicki. Gesicki actually leads the Dolphins in red-zone targets (nine) and red-zone catches (seven), as well as red-zone receiving touchdowns (four) this season.

The best price I'm seeing for Gesicki to score a touchdown is at DraftKings, at which he is trading at +145. You should shop around, as not every sportsbook has posted the odds for this prop as of this writing, and we consistently see drastically different prices across sportsbooks for anytime touchdown wagers. 

Where to Bet on Texans-Dolphins Picks

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Texans-Dolphins picks made 11/24/2022 at 11:15 a.m. ET.