NFL Teaser Picks Week 9: Titans No Match for K.C. After Bye
The Kansas City Chiefs and Jacksonville Jaguars headline our NFL Week 9 teaser picks.
A teaser bet enables bettors to move multiple spreads and/or totals above or below key numbers and ranges for an increased vig. For additional information on teaser bets and strategies, make sure to check out our teaser betting primer.
Check out our NFL best bets and all of our top picks for Week 9!
Here are our NFL teaser picks for Week 9 (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook).
Week 9 NFL ATS Teaser Picks
Favorite to tease down: Chiefs (-12.5)
Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is 20-3 following a bye during the regular season, and bettors can tease this spread down through the key number of 7. The Tennessee Titans are also playing their second road game in consecutive weeks and ripe for a letdown showing.
Additionally, the only other time the Titans faced a strong opponent on the road, they were dismantled 41-7 by the Buffalo Bills in Week 2. Now, Tennessee might have to turn to rookie signal caller Malik Willis for a second consecutive game after he attempted just 10 passes against the Houston Texans last week.
It’s a huge uptick in class for Tennessee, too. The Titans have faced the easiest schedule in the league by DVOA, per Football Outsiders, and Kansas City boasts the fifth-highest overall rank in the metric.
K.C. quarterback Patrick Mahomes is pacing the NFL in defense-adjusted yards above replacement and ranks second in EPA per play. Add the luxury of having additional preparation for this Week 9 meeting, and I’m expecting the Chiefs offense to pull away on the scoreboard.
I don’t see the talent on the Tennessee sideline to keep pace with a rested and prepared K.C. offense, either.
Underdog to tease up: Jaguars (+1.5)
The Las Vegas Raiders got shutout on the road against the New Orleans Saints in Week 8, and now they’re a road favorite against the Jacksonville Jaguars?
It doesn’t add up for me.
While I’m not rushing to bet on the Jags, I’m definitely confident in teasing this spread up above the key number of 7. Additionally, I don’t suspect bettors will have an opportunity to do so come the weekend. Vegas hasn’t won on the road all season, after all.
Each of Jacksonville’s losses have been one-possession games. The Jaguar defense is also the better unit in each of the following statistics this season: EPA per play, team pass rush win rate and DVOA.
The only concern is Jacksonville will be traveling home following a 21-17 loss to the Denver Broncos in London. Still, the Raiders have no business laying points on the road, so give me the extra six-point wiggle room on the Jags.
Week 9 NFL O/U Teaser Picks
Total to tease down: Dolphins-Bears (43.5)
I’ve been impressed with the Chicago Bears’ offense the past two weeks, and the eye test also checks out statistically. Chicago ranks ninth in EPA per play and 12th in offensive DVOA while putting 62 points on the scoreboard through its past two games.
The Miami Dolphins also returned to their high-scoring ways in Week 8 with a 31-27 road win over the Detroit Lions, and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa paces the NFL in both DVOA and EPA per play.
Additionally, Miami and Chicago respectively rank 25th and 26th in defensive DVOA and 17th and 30th in defense grade, per PFF.
This total can also be teased down through the key ranges of 40-41 and 43-44. So, with the Bears offense potentially turning the corner and the Dolphins already a top-tier attack with a healthly Tagovailoa, there's value here.
Total to tease up: Colts-Patriots (39.5)
Another total that can be moved through the key ranges of 40-41 and 43-44, the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts have combined to score just 62 total points across each of their past two games.
The New England offense is also taking the second-most time per play in the league this season, and Indianapolis quarterback Sam Ehlinger will make just his second-career start. The Colts threw on just 46.3% of plays in Ehlinger’s debut, too.
With the New England defense hanging among the league’s best, I don’t foresee the points piling up in this matchup. The Pats rank seventh in defensive DVOA and have surrendered the fifth-lowest EPA per play in the league. Indianapolis checks out as a middling unit in both metrics with respective ranks of 14th and 15th.
I’m expecting both teams to commit to the run and try to dominate the time of possession Sunday, which will result in a low-scoring outcome.
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