NFL Teaser Picks Week 8: Cowboys Baffle Bears with Defense
The Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Rams headline our NFL Week 8 teasers picks.
Teaser bets are popular among both professional and recreational bettors, and they provide the ability to move spreads and totals above or below key numbers and ranges for an increased vig.
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Check out our NFL Week 8 odds and lines analysis and our against-the-spread power rankings.
Here are our NFL teaser picks for Week 8 (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook).
Week 8 NFL ATS Teaser Picks
Favorite to tease down: Cowboys (-9.5)
With this spread already below the key number of 10, the Cowboys can be teased all the way down to -3.5. I don’t anticipate the Chicago Bears will receive enough betting support for this spread to stay below 10 when the teams meet Sunday, either.
Simply put, the Cowboys' defense will be too much for the Bears to handle. Dallas ranks second in defensive DVOA per Football Outsiders, paces the NFL in pass rush grade per Pro Football Focus, and has the highest team pass rush win rate in the league.
Plus, with the Bears ranking 31st in offensive DVOA and sporting the fifth-lowest offensive success rate, I don’t envision them being able to keep pace with the Dallas offense. I anticipate Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott and the Big D attack to be more efficient and effective in his second start following a five-week absence due to a thumb injury.
Underdog to tease up: Rams (+1.5)
This is the second meeting between the division rivals, and I expect the Week 8 matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams to finish as a one-possession game. As a result, teasing the Rams through multiple key numbers to +7.5 is a leg I’m comfortable with.
I’m a little surprised the total has climbed from an opening 41 to 42.5 so quickly, as these two defenses sport top-10 ranks in DVOA, defense grade per PFF, team pass rush win rate and EPA per play allowed. Still, the strengths of the two defensive units are another reason I’m anticipating neither team pulling away on Sunday. A 42.5 total definitely doesn’t suggest this will be a high-scoring affair.
Los Angeles will also have a number of players returning from injury following its Week 7 bye. Meanwhile, the 49ers are still dealing with multiple injuries on defense and wide receiver Deebo Samuel (hamstring) and fullback Kyle Juszczyk (finger) are also banged up.
Week 7 NFL O/U Teaser Picks
Total to tease down: Giants-Seahawks (44.5)
While this total has actually dropped from an opening 46.5, it just means we’re now able to tease it down further through two key ranges — 40-41 and 43-44 points — instead of one.
Both the New York Giants and Seattle Seahawks have shown off offensively. They respectively rank seventh and fifth in EPA per play and seventh and third in DVOA. Additionally, neither team has been overly impressive on defense. The Giants have the third-lowest defense grade per PFF, and the Seahawks have the eighth-lowest grade. There’s also nothing to write home about their respective DVOA ranks of 29th and 19th.
Admittedly, the Giants and Seahawks have been two of the most surprising teams in the league, and maybe Sunday of Week 8 ahead of Halloween is when their offenses turn into pumpkins. However, teasing this total down to 38.5 helps mitigate the potential for negative regression.
Total to Tease Up: Titans-Texans (40.5)
This is another total that can be teased through multiple key ranges. The Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans rank 22nd and 27th in offensive DVOA and 32nd and 29th in net yards per play this season. Additionally, Tennessee is the slowest offense in the league, taking 30.8 seconds per play, and Houston ranks 25th at 29.1 seconds per play.
Titans No. 1 quarterback Ryan Tannehill sustained an ankle injury during the Week 7 win over the Indianapolis Colts, too. If he misses the game or plays at less than 100%, it’s likely the Titans try to slow this game down even more. Texans starting quarterback Davis Mills has played poorly this season with just 6.5 yards per attempt and the second-worst EPA per play this season.
Barring turnovers and/or poor special-teams play resulting in points or consistent short fields, I struggle to see where the offense will come from in this game.
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