Survivor Pool Picks Week 11: NFL Survivor Strategies & Safest Pick This Week

After hitting on our safest pick and strategy pick last week, our NFL survivor pool picks advance to Week 11 in great shape. 

We’re back to offer our expertise, highlighting the safest survivor pick, best survivor pick, team to avoid, and more for the Week 11 NFL slate. As part of the NFL Week 11 predictions, we are backing an international game with our survivor strategy pick.

🎯 Best NFL survivor pool picks: Week 11

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 10 based on the latest NFL odds.

🪖 Safest NFL survivor pick: Patriots (89.47%) over Jets

The New York Jets have won back-to-back games after starting the season 0-7. But they are still a team that traded arguably their two best defensive players (Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams), while the New England Patriots have a stranglehold on the AFC East race at 8-2 after playing the league’s easiest schedule.

New England’s seven-game winning streak is tied for the longest active streak in the NFL. It has started fast, cashing the first half moneyline in seven straight games, and 10 of its last 11 dating back to last season. 

The Patriots have the easiest strength of schedule remaining. But that should not be a reason to put them off to use later in survivor pools, as they are the only team favored by double digits by the NFL Week 11 odds. Our Gary Pearson is backing the Pats to cover (-10.5) with his early Jets vs. Patriots prediction.

🐂 Best NFL survivor pick: Texans (80.20%) over Titans

Houston outscored Jacksonville 26-0 in the fourth quarter last week, completing its largest fourth-quarter comeback in franchise history (19 points). 

While backup quarterback Davis Mills won his first start since 2022, I am expecting C.J. Stroud to clear concussion protocol in time to start this week.

Titans rookie quarterback Cam Ward has four games with zero touchdown passes. Tennessee may be rested off a bye, but it is amid its second four-game losing streak of the season. It should struggle to score points against the league’s No. 1 scoring and total defense.

🐬 NFL survivor strategy pick: Dolphins (59.02%) over Commanders

One week in the NFL is sometimes enough to change one’s perspective on a team, and arguably no team had a more impressive win in Week 10 than Miami’s 30-13 victory over Buffalo.

The Dolphins shut the Bills out through three quarters for the first time since 2003. They now face a Commanders team that is amid the longest active losing streak in the league (five games). 

Not only has Washington lost five straight, but each of the last four have been by 21-plus points. The Commanders are 0-3 straight up and ATS this year with Marcus Mariota under center, and he has lost seven straight starts outright when listed as an underdog.

Miami should also be favored in its next home game three weeks from now when it is coming off a bye against New Orleans. But if one trusts the Dolphins to continue to perform well in Madrid this week, they are my top favorite of any team hovering between -2 and -3.5 on the point spread. Our Gary Pearson backs Miami with his early Commanders vs. Dolphins prediction and his NFL picks against the spread.

❌ NFL survivor pick to avoid: Cowboys (66.22%) over Raiders

The Raiders struck fear in any survivor pool contestants that used the Broncos last week, as Denver escaped with an ugly 10-7 home victory. The loss was Las Vegas’ seventh in the last eight games, but it has three losses by three or fewer points in that span.

The Raiders held a previously hot Broncos offense to 3.9 yards per play, and Denver finished a season-worst nine of 13 drives without a first down. 

Normally, this would be a great spot to back the Cowboys, as they entered their last game 13-0 SU in night games since the start of the 2020 season. But Dallas then looked lifeless in a 27-17 loss to Arizona on Monday Night Football. Thus, I can no longer back Dak Prescott confidently, even if he is 29-16-1 SU in night games in his career. Our Phil Wood rides with the Over with his early Cowboys vs. Raiders prediction.

💵 Circa Survivor contest update entering Week 11

Two of the four most used teams in the Circa Sports Survivor contest in Week 10 lost outright, as the Panthers and Bills combined for 751 eliminated entries, and 42.5% of the active entries to start the week. The Broncos won on Thursday Night Football to advance 24.3% of contestants, while the third-most popular pick (Seahawks) saw 14.8% of the league through.

Now entering Week 11, the field has whittled down from 1,769 entries at the start of last week, to 1,000 vying for the grand prize.