Survivor Pool Picks Today: NFL Survivor Strategies & Safest Pick Week 11
Our NFL survivor pool picks are alive and well entering today's Week 11 action. We already got our safest pick for the week through when the New England Patriots beat the New York Jets on Thursday Night Football.
Read on to find out the best survivor pick, best strategy play, team to avoid, and more for the forthcoming docket, part of the NFL Week 11 predictions.
🎯 Best NFL survivor pool picks today: Week 11
See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 10 based on the latest NFL odds.
| Team | Opponent | Moneyline | Win probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots ✅ | vs. Jets | -850 | 89.47% |
| Ravens | at Browns | -500 | 83.33% |
| Packers | at Giants | -460 | 82.14% |
| Texans | at Titans | -405 | 80.20% |
| Steelers | vs. Bengals | -260 | 72.22% |
| Bills | vs. Buccaneers | -270 | 72.97% |
| Falcons | vs. Panthers | -210 | 67.74% |
| Dolphins | vs. Commanders | -144 | 59.02% |
| Cowboys | at Raiders | -196 | 66.22% |
| Vikings | vs. Bears | -165 | 62.26% |
🐂 Best NFL survivor pick: Texans (80.20%) over Titans
Houston outscored Jacksonville 26-0 in the fourth quarter last week, completing its largest fourth-quarter comeback in franchise history (19 points).
While backup quarterback Davis Mills won his first start since 2022, I am expecting C.J. Stroud to clear concussion protocol in time to start this week.
Titans rookie quarterback Cam Ward has four games with zero touchdown passes. Tennessee may be rested off a bye, but it is amid its second four-game losing streak of the season. It should struggle to score points against the league’s No. 1 scoring and total defense.
💡 More 11 predictions
Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game in Week 11.
🐬 NFL survivor strategy pick: Dolphins (59.02%) over Commanders
One week in the NFL is sometimes enough to change one’s perspective on a team, and arguably no team had a more impressive win in Week 10 than Miami’s 30-13 victory over Buffalo.
The Dolphins shut the Bills out through three quarters for the first time since 2003. They now face a Commanders team that is amid the longest active losing streak in the league (five games).
Not only has Washington lost five straight, but each of the last four have been by 21-plus points. The Commanders are 0-3 straight up and ATS this year with Marcus Mariota under center, and he has lost seven straight starts outright when listed as an underdog.
Miami should also be favored in its next home game three weeks from now when it is coming off a bye against New Orleans. But if one trusts the Dolphins to continue to perform well in Madrid this week, they are my top favorite of any team hovering between -2 and -3.5 on the point spread. Our Gary Pearson backs Miami with his early Commanders vs. Dolphins prediction and his NFL picks against the spread.
❌ NFL survivor pick to avoid: Cowboys (66.22%) over Raiders
The Raiders struck fear in any survivor pool contestants that used the Broncos last week, as Denver escaped with an ugly 10-7 home victory. The loss was Las Vegas’ seventh in the last eight games, but it has three losses by three or fewer points in that span.
The Raiders held a previously hot Broncos offense to 3.9 yards per play, and Denver finished a season-worst nine of 13 drives without a first down.
Normally, this would be a great spot to back the Cowboys, as they entered their last game 13-0 SU in night games since the start of the 2020 season. But Dallas then looked lifeless in a 27-17 loss to Arizona on Monday Night Football. Thus, I can no longer back Dak Prescott confidently, even if he is 29-16-1 SU in night games in his career. Our Phil Wood rides with the Over with his early Cowboys vs. Raiders prediction.
💵 Circa Survivor contest update entering Week 11
There are 1,000 remaining entries in the Circa Sports Survivor contest to start Week 11. The Patriots advanced 440 (44%) of those contestants with their Thursday night win. The Houston Texans (12.9%), Pittsburgh Steelers (11.5%), and Green Bay Packers (9.9%) are this week's next-most popular picks. One of the remaining 1,000 poolies is backing the Kansas City Chiefs.
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💡 NFL expert picks today
Follow all of our NFL analysis for Week 11 throughout the week.
- NFL picks against the spread Week 11
- NFL QB clutch player ratings Week 11
- NFL survivor picks Week 11
- NFL AI predictions Week 11
- NFL weather report Week 11
- NFL upset picks Week 11
- NFL player props Week 11
- NFL best bets Week 11
- NFL moneyline picks Week 11
- NFL anytime touchdown scorer predictions Week 11
- NFL 2+ touchdown scorer predictions Week 11
- NFL anytime touchdown scorer parlay Week 11
- NFL long-shot parlay Week 11
🪖 Safest NFL survivor pick: Patriots (89.47%) over Jets ✅
The New York Jets have won back-to-back games after starting the season 0-7. But they are still a team that traded arguably their two best defensive players (Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams), while the New England Patriots have a stranglehold on the AFC East race at 8-2 after playing the league’s easiest schedule.
New England’s seven-game winning streak is tied for the longest active streak in the NFL. It has started fast, cashing the first half moneyline in seven straight games, and 10 of its last 11 dating back to last season.
The Patriots have the easiest strength of schedule remaining. But that should not be a reason to put them off to use later in survivor pools, as they are the only team favored by double digits by the NFL Week 11 odds. Our Gary Pearson is backing the Pats to cover (-10.5) with his early Jets vs. Patriots prediction.
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