NFL Survivor Picks Week 15: Washington Commands Attention Against Giants
The Washington Commanders will host the New York Giants following their bye week in the rematch of NFC East divisional foes. The Commanders check out as one of our top survivor picks for Week 15.
Week 14 took a toll on survivor poolies.The Tennessee Titans, Las Vegas Raiders and Seattle Seahawks all lost as popular selections, and most survivor participants likely don’t have the luxury to turn to a huge favorite this week.
The Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills, Green Bay Packers, Dallas Cowboys and Cincinnati Bengals have been regular recommendations in this column all season. I’m less confident in the San Francisco 49ers on a short week with an injured rookie quarterback making his first career road start, but they also fit the bill.
I’m going to shift the focus to teams that are most available in contests based on the team availability in the Circa Sports 2022 Survivor Contest.
Here’s a look at the odds list and a breakdown of the top teams to target and fade in survivor pools for Week 15.
Check out our NFL best bets and all of our top NFL picks for Week 15.
Week 15 Survivor Pick Rankings
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of Wednesday, Dec. 14, at 8:00 a.m. ET.
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Win Probability |
| Chiefs | -14 | -1000 | 90.9% |
| Eagles | -9 | -400 | 80.0% |
| Packers | -7 | -300 | 75.0% |
| Bills | -7.5 | -335 | 77.0% |
| Cowboys | -4.5 | -235 | 70.1% |
| Bengals | -3.5 | -198 | 66.4% |
| Vikings | -4.5 | -215 | 68.3% |
| Commanders | -4.5 | -210 | 67.7% |
| Browns | -2.5 | -148 | 59.7% |
| 49ers | -3.5 | -180 | 64.3% |
| Saints | -4 | -200 | 66.7% |
| Panthers | -2.5 | -138 | 58.0% |
| Chargers | -3 | -152 | 60.3% |
| Broncos | -2.5 | -142 | 58.7% |
| Jets | +1 | -108 | 51.9% |
| Raiders | +1.5 | -104 | 51.0% |
| Patriots | -1.5 | -112 | 52.8% |
| Lions | -1 | -108 | 51.9% |
| Cardinals | +2.5 | +120 | 45.5% |
| Titans | +3 | +130 | 43.5% |
| Steelers | +2.5 | +118 | 45.9% |
| Falcons | +4 | +168 | 37.3% |
| Seahawks | +3.5 | +152 | 39.7% |
| Ravens | +2.5 | +126 | 44.2% |
| Giants | +4.5 | +176 | 36.2% |
| Colts | +4.5 | +180 | 35.7% |
| Buccaneers | +3.5 | +166 | 38.5% |
| Jaguars | +4.5 | +188 | 34.7% |
| Dolphins | +3.5 | +270 | 27.0% |
| Rams | +7 | +245 | 29.0% |
| Bears | +9 | +315 | 24.1% |
| Texans | +14 | +660 | 13.2% |
Top NFL Week 15 Survivor Picks
5. Panthers (vs. Steelers)
The Carolina Panthers have won three of their past four games and rank fourth in defensive DVOA per Football Outsiders during the stretch. With Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett in the NFL’s concussion protocols for the second time this season, he could miss Sunday’s game.
The potential quarterback change has caught my attention because Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin noted that backups Mitch Trubisky and Mason Rudolph would both be receiving first-team reps in practice this week. For me, the plan to split reps doesn’t instill confidence for a road game against an emerging defense.
While it’s difficult to quantify motivation, Carolina’s improved play on defense is a clear indication the Panthers are still invested in taking a run at a playoff berth by winning the wide open NFC South.
4. Saints (vs. Falcons)
Admittedly, this is a tough handicap because Atlanta Falcons rookie quarterback Desmond Ridder will be making his first career start against the New Orleans Saints on Sunday. Still, the Falcons are on a 1-4 slide and run out one of the worst defensive units in the league.
Despite facing the 27th-easiest schedule of opposing offenses by DVOA, the Falcons rank 30th in defensive DVOA and 26th in defense grade per Pro Football Focus.
I’m expecting the Saints to be able to move the ball and control the time of possession against Atlanta at Caesars Superdome. Additionally, New Orleans cornerback Marshon Lattimore (abdomen), linebacker Pete Werner (ankle) and defensive end Cameron Jordan (foot) should all benefit from the Week 14 bye. It’ll be a huge boost if they suit up against the Falcons.
3. Browns (vs. Ravens)
This is a must-win game for the Cleveland Browns, and the first home start for quarterback Deshaun Watson. With the season on the line, I’m expecting Watson to take another step forward in Week 15.
The quarterback situation for the Baltimore Ravens isn’t as certain. Backup Tyler Huntley is in the NFL’s concussion protocols, and this is also a short week with the Ravens and Browns facing off Saturday. If Huntley is unable to suit up, I’d expect this spread to move even further in Cleveland’s direction, and the Browns would also accordingly climb these rankings.
Even if Huntley is under center for the Ravens, this is also a tough schedule spot for Baltimore. It will be the Ravens second consecutive road game and third in four weeks. Additionally, it’ll be Huntley’s first career start in high wings and freezing temperatures.
2. Commanders (vs. Giants)
These NFC East Division rivals tied 20-20 in Week 13, but the score wasn’t completely indicative of the play on the field. The Washington Commanders gained 95 more yards and won the time of possession 41:11 to 28:49.
Washington also enters the Week 15 rematch off its bye week and with an active 6-1-1 record. The New York Giants are heading in the opposite direction. Their 48-22 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 14 dropped the G-Men to a 1-4-1 slide.
I anticipate the Commanders are available to most survivor poolies, and I expect them to leapfrog the Giants in the NFC East standings with a win at FedEx Field on Sunday night.
1. Vikings (vs. Colts)
The Minnesota Vikings are definitely a flawed 10-3 team. They rank 30th in net yards per play and 21st in overall DVOA. Still, the Indianapolis Colts enter this matchup with a three-game losing streak, 2-4-1 road record and the second-last DVOA rank.
More specifically, I value the gap in offensive talent and production between these two teams. Indianapolis grades 28th in offense per PFF, ranks 31st in EPA per play and has scored the second-fewest points per game. Minnesota respectively ranks sixth, 18th and 10th.
I also view value this as a bounce-back spot for Minnesota following a 34-23 loss to the Detroit Lions last week. Even with Indianapolis benefiting from its Week 14 bye, I expect the Vikings to put too many points on the board for the Colts to win this game.
Week 15 NFL Favorite to Fade
Chargers (vs. Titans)
With the Los Angeles Chargers lining up against the Indianapolis Colts, Los Angeles Rams and Denver Broncos to close out the season, I’d be hesitant to turn to them in survivor pools this week. The Tennessee Titans are their most formidable remaining opponent, and this is also a potentially bad matchup for the Chargers run defense.
Los Angeles ranks 30th in run defense grade per PFF while allowing the fourth-highest EPA per rush. Titans running back Derrick Henry is also coming off his first 100-yard rushing game since Week 9, and Tennessee grades ninth in run offense per PFF.
Tennessee entering this contest with a three-game losing streak also has my attention. Titans head coach Mike Vrabal hasn’t lost four consecutive games during this five-year tenure.
Others to Consider
- Lions (at Jets)
- Patriots (at Raiders)
Where to Bet on NFL Week 15 Survivor Picks
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NFL Week 15 Survivor picks made Dec. 14 at 10:45 a.m. ET
