NFL Survivor Picks Week 10: Risk it with Raiders
The Las Vegas Raiders land in a plus-matchup at home against the Indianapolis Colts, and they join a number of other large favorites in our top picks for NFL survivor pools in Week 10.
It’s crunch time in NFL survivor pools and options are thinning by the week. While there are a number of large favorites to target in Week 10, there are also a few hold-your-nose picks to help poolies advance to Week 10.
Here’s a look at the odds list and a breakdown of the top teams to target and fade in survivor pools this week.
Check out all of our top picks for NFL Week 10.
Week 10 Survivor Pick Rankings
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of Wednesday, Nov. 9, at 9 a.m. ET.
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Win Probability |
| Eagles | -10.5 | -510 | 83.6% |
| 49ers | -7 | -300 | 75.0% |
| Chiefs | -9.5 | -430 | 81.1% |
| Cowboys | -5 | -225 | 69.2% |
| Raiders | -6 | -250 | 71.4% |
| Giants | -6.5 | -290 | 74.4% |
| Bills | -4.5 | -215 | 68.3% |
| Dolphins | -3.5 | -194 | 66.0% |
| Buccaneers | -2.5 | -142 | 58.7% |
| Saints | -2.5 | -134 | 57.3% |
| Rams | -3 | -172 | 63.2% |
| Broncos | +3 | +130 | 43.5% |
| Bears | -3 | -152 | 60.3% |
| Falcons | -3 | -162 | 61.8% |
| Panthers | +3 | +136 | 42.4% |
| Lions | +3 | +128 | 43.9% |
| Titans | -3 | -154 | 60.6% |
| Cardinals | +3 | +144 | 41.0% |
| Steelers | +2.5 | +114 | 46.7% |
| Seahawks | +2.5 | +120 | 45.5% |
| Browns | -3.5 | +130 | 43.5% |
| Vikings | +4.5 | +180 | 35.7% |
| Texans | +6.5 | +235 | 29.9% |
| Colts | +6 | +205 | 32.8% |
| Packers | +5 | +188 | 34.7% |
| Jaguars | +9.5 | +340 | 22.7% |
| Chargers | +7 | +245 | 29.0% |
| Commanders | +10.5 | +390 | 20.4% |
Top NFL Survivor Picks
6. Giants (vs. Texans)
The 6-2 New York Giants are a sizable home favorite coming off their bye week, and the Houston Texans enter Week 10 with a 1-6-1 record. Additionally, the Texans' offense is among the league’s worst and ranks fourth last in both offensive DVOA per Football Outsiders and EPA per play.
It might not be pretty, but I expect the G-Men to win Sunday. Head coach Brian Daboll and defensive coordinator Don Martindale have gotten the most out of the talent on both sides of the ball, and New York enters the game healthy and rested.
5. Raiders (vs. Colts)
It’s the point of the survivor season where you sometimes have to hold your nose and select a team you might not be fully comfortable with. While I’m not necessarily sure backing the Las Vegas Raiders as large home favorites is in full flier territory, I’d understand if you were weary of backing a 2-6 team that’s blown three 17-point leads this season.
Check out our NFL upset picks for Week 10.
Still, the Indianapolis Colts just made a questionable coaching change and have scored only 29 total points during a three-game losing skid. Unless the offense breaks out for the Colts, I don’t see where the points will come from to keep pace with the capable – albeit streaky – Vegas attack.
4. Cowboys (at Packers)
The Green Bay Packers have lost five consecutive games with a minus-40 point differential over that span. The team could now be without starters on both sides of the ball due to injuries suffered in Week 9. While I’d prefer the Dallas Cowboys to be playing at AT&T Stadium, Big D is a large favorite and boasts an elite statistical defense.
Add that Dallas has the benefit of the bye week to rest and prepare for the reeling Packers, and I’m confident the Cowboys leave Lambeau Field with a win Sunday.
3. Chiefs (vs. Jaguars)
I like the Kansas City Chiefs playing at Arrowhead Stadium, and the Jacksonville Jaguars have faced the easiest schedule in the NFL by DVOA. Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes is also playing at an MVP level with the second-highest EPA per play and DVOA in the league.
This is both a significant uptick in class and a tough road matchup for the Jaguars, so I’d be confident using the Chiefs.
2. 49ers (vs. Chargers)
It’ll be worth monitoring the injury news leading into this matchup, as both teams had multiple impact starters on offense and defense miss their respective most recent game. The difference is the San Francisco 49ers had their bye in Week 9, whereas the Los Angeles Chargers barely snuck out a road win against the Atlanta Falcons.
The Chargers now have to travel back across the country to play their second road game in consecutive weeks, and the 49ers have one of the better statistical defenses in the league. San Francisco also had its best offensive showing of the season last time out. I'm bullish on the Niners as an against-the-spread pick and will be taking them straight up this week.
1. Eagles (vs. Commanders)
The Philadelphia Eagles topped the Washington Commanders 24-8 on the road in Week 3, and I’m expecting a similar result this time around. Philly is at home for the Week 10 rematch, and the Eagles also have the benefit of extra rest and preparation time after playing the Thursday game last week.
Simply put, Philadelphia ranks atop the NFL in DVOA and overall grade, per PFF, whereas Washington respectively ranks 24th and 22nd. The huge gap in talent will be on full display Monday.
Others to Consider
- Dolphins vs. Browns
- Buccaneers vs. Seahawks
Favorite to Fade
Bills vs. Vikings
Obviously, the injury status of Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (elbow) is the primary factor for this fade nod. I still expect Buffalo to win if backup QB Case Keenum needs to start, but I’d also want to look elsewhere in survivor pools.
The Minnesota Vikings have the offensive weapons to hang around, and multiple key players on the Buffalo defense didn’t play last week and could miss this game or suit up at less than 100%. Plus, we’re also talking about a 7-1 team potentially facing a backup quarterback.
Others to Consider
- Falcons at Panthers
- Bears vs. Lions
Where to Bet on the NFL
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