Super Bowl 2026 Winner Pick: How Will the Patriots Win Super Bowl 2026?

I'm weaving a narrative for a Super Bowl 2026 winner pick, outlining how the Patriots will win. 

While I'm not saying they will hoist the Lombardi Trophy, DraftKings has them at a 28.17% chance of doing so. With that in mind, I'm writing this as if New England winning the Super Bowl is a foregone conclusion, which I'm sure some Patriots fans believe to be the case. The analysis below complements our Conference Championship predictions.  

🏈 AFC Championship prediction: How will the Patriots beat the Broncos?

The Patriots must clear two hurdles to win their first Super Bowl since 2019, the first of which is a Jarrett Stidham-led Denver Broncos in Sunday's AFC Championship. 

This is a proposition I can get behind, the reasons of which I detailed in my Patriots vs. Broncos prediction. If you're wondering who the Broncos' backup QB is, you're not alone. 

While Broncos' head coach Sean Payton is renowned for transforming lemons into the most tantalizing lemonade, I'd be shocked to see him conjure a miracle of this magnitude, especially against the Patriots' improved defense and Drake Maye, one of the primary Super Bowl MVP odds contenders. 

I expect the Patriots to win by a converted TD, punching their Super Bowl ticket. 

❓Who will the Patriots meet in Super Bowl 2026? 

Wouldn't it be fitting to see the QB Maye is up against for regular-season MVP honors standing between him and the Lombardi Trophy?

The Los Angeles Rams are receiving the second-shortest Super Bowl odds, and I backed them to upset Seattle in my Rams vs. Seahawks prediction. That would mean a Super Bowl matchup featuring the Patriots and Rams.

While there are numerous who will play in Super Bowl 60 options, I'm channeling my handicapping energy on seeing the two best QBs from the regular season square off in the showcase event at Levi's Stadium on Sunday, Feb. 8. 

By the way, FanDuel, one of the best sports betting sites, has the probability of a New England vs. Los Angeles Super Bowl at 33.90% (+195 odds). 

🪖 How will the Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?

What Mike Vrabel has accomplished in his first year at the helm of the Patriots is nothing short of miraculous. As far as Super Bowl head coach experience, history and trends go, Vrabel would enter rarified air if he wins the Super Bowl after one season in charge. 

Which, in this case, he will. 

His team is built on hard work, accountability, a top-five scoring defense, a top-five offense via DVOA, and iron-clad camaraderie. The Patriots will require all of those characteristics to upend Sean McVay, Stafford, and Co.  

The look-ahead lines have the Rams as the 3.5-point betting favorite, with the total set at 51.5 points. The Patriots would be the +146 moneyline betting underdog. 

With the favorable conditions at Levi's Stadium and a battle between two of the three Super Bowl MVP odds favorites, accompanied by their top-tier offenses, I'd lock in the Over.

And, of course, the Patriots to win. That would slap an exclamation mark on Maye's season, the best from any sophomore QB in NFL history.