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Russell Wilson Trade Takes Value Out of Broncos' Super Bowl Odds

Scott Cullen

Last Updated: March 9, 2022 1:18 AM EST • 2 min 55 sec read.

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - FEBRUARY 06: Russell Wilson #3 of the Seattle Seahawks and NFC looks to throw against the AFC during the 2022 NFL Pro Bowl at Allegiant Stadium on February 06, 2022 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The AFC defeated the NFC 41-35. Ethan Miller/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Ethan Miller / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

The Denver Broncos landed quarterback Russell Wilson in a blockbuster trade with the Seattle Seahawks on Tuesday, March 8. The Super Bowl odds for the Broncos and Seahawks shifted in the aftermath of this massive deal.

March 8 isn't typically a busy day on the NFL schedule, but that changed in a big way on a Tuesday in 2022.

After it was announced that reigning MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers would be returning to the Green Bay Packers on a reported four-year, $200 million contract, the Denver Broncos one-upped that move by reportedly acquiring QB Russell Wilson from the Seattle Seahawks.

https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1501276050336014340

Below, we look at adjustments made to the NFL futures markets, including the odds to win Super Bowl LVII, along with our top picks.

Broncos' Super Bowl Odds Plummet

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Having missed the playoffs for six straight seasons, the Broncos were desperate for an answer at the most important position. The quarterback tandem of Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock was respectable enough for the Broncos to finish with a 7-10 record in 2021, so it is no surprise that they would be interested in making a change, especially if it would mean landing a premier quarterback.

SEE ALSO: Packers are NFC Favorites with Rodgers' New Contract

Once it was decided that Rodgers would be returning to Green Bay and no longer an option for Denver, the Broncos made a trade to acquire Wilson from the Seahawks. While the 33-year-old Wilson does not have the same credentials as Rodgers, he has also been a hugely successful NFL quarterback with one Super Bowl victory to his name. In the past four seasons, Wilson has thrown 131 touchdowns and 31 interceptions while averaging 7.8 yards per pass attempt. Wilson has mobility that helps him to extend plays and keep the ball moving down the field.

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Denver’s receiving corps of Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and Tim Patrick ought to be strong enough that Wilson will remain productive with his new team and those receivers should see an upgrade in their individual production with a more reliable quarterback.

While any quarterback would be considered a Plan B compared to the potential of landing Rodgers, getting Wilson is a coup for the Broncos and Denver’s Super Bowl odds shifted dramatically in the immediate aftermath of the trade.

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AFC Championship Odds

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AFC West Odds

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Seahawks' Super Bowl Odds Head the Other Way

As Red told Andy in Shawshank Redemption, "Hope is a dangerous thing." Good news for the Seahawks, then, because in the short-term there is not a lot of hope in Seattle after trading away its franchise quarterback. 

Eventually, the Seahawks received enough draft capital (two first-round picks, two second-round picks, and a fifth-round pick) that there could be a reason to be optimistic about the future but that is going to take time and it is still going to require the Seahawks to find an answer at quarterback.

SEE ALSO: NFL Draft Odds and Picks

Drew Lock has been a pedestrian NFL quarterback while appearing in 24 games across the past three seasons. He has thrown 25 touchdowns and 20 interceptions while averaging a conservative 6.7 yards per pass attempt. He might be a placeholder but the downgrade at quarterback explains how dramatically the Seahawks’ odds have shifted in the wake of Wilson’s departure.

Tight end Noah Fant was a first-round pick in 2019 and has had back-to-back seasons with at least 60 catches and 670 receiving yards. He should be a reliable option in the Seahawks’ passing game and he should fit third in the target share behind wide receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.

Defensive lineman Shelby Harris, 30, has been a starter for the past three seasons. He has accumalated 14.5 sacks in 43 games. He ought to help the Seahawks but is hardly going to move the needle in the way that compares to a quarterback.

Recommendation

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The Broncos’ Super Bowl odds have shifted so dramatically upon landing Wilson that they are too close to other top contenders. The reigning Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams, for example, are running neck-and-neck with the Broncos.

If the Broncos’ odds settle down into the range of +1500 or higher that might make some sense. As it is, Wilson is still going to face a daunting task just to get out of the AFC West. The Broncos ought to be significantly improved but they aren’t offering great value at their new odds.

https://twitter.com/johnewing/status/1501313713692938245

Where to Get the Best Super Bowl Odds

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

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SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Written By:
Scott Cullen
Scott Cullen is SportsbookReview.com's Sports Betting Analyst and is one of the most well-known sports betting writers on the web. He wrote about fantasy sports for TSN for many years, and he has also written for The Athletic, NHL.com, The Hockey News, Monkey Knife Fight, and McKeen's Hockey. Born in Kitchener, Ontario, Canada, Cullen was an Economics major at Wilfrid Laurier University in Waterloo, Ontario and played for the Laurier Golden Hawks hockey team.