Super Bowl Odds: Bills, Eagles Lead After Close Wins; Chiefs Rise as Ravens Fall in Week 4
We're finally starting to see some movement - and separation - in the Super Bowl odds market as the betting favorites survived close calls in NFL Week 4.
The Bills remain the Super Bowl favorites after a 31-19 win over the New Orleans Saints as the biggest Week 4 favorites by the NFL odds. They rank ahead of the Eagles - who narrowly beat the Buccaneers - and the Packers, who play the Cowboys tonight on Sunday Night Football.
The biggest climbers were the Chiefs, who stunned the Ravens in a blowout win to rejoin the ranks of the favorites and send Baltimore into a tailspin after a 1-3 start amid a rash of injuries.
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📈 Biggest risers and fallers after Week 4
- The Chiefs (+1200) made the biggest statement of any team in Week 4, scoring a 37-20 win over the Ravens (+800) to avoid a 1-3 start
- The Bills (+450) keep inching closer to the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a 4-0 start after surviving the Saints for a 31-19 win
- The Chargers (+1600) were one of the biggest risers last week, but they didn't help their cause with a 21-18 loss to the plucky Giants (+50000) in Jaxson Dart's debut
- The Rams (+1800) needed an 88-yard touchdown in the final two minutes to snap an unbeaten start for the Colts (+4500) and quietly improve to 3-1
- The Seahawks (+4500) were 65/1 long shots last week before a strong showing against the Cardinals (+11000) in a 23-20 win on Thursday Night Football
🦬 Bills pulling away after 4-0 start
It wasn't pretty, and it certainly wasn't guaranteed even after entering Week 4 as the biggest favorites of the week. But the Bills survived a scare against the Saints to join the Eagles as the only unbeaten teams through four weeks.
Josh Allen threw his first interception of the season, but he also threw two touchdowns - including the key insurance score with 7:07 left in a 2-point game - while leaning on James Cook (117 yards, TD) to power a perfect start.
Now Buffalo is staring at a two-game lead in the AFC East through four weeks and a 1-game lead over the Steelers, Colts, Jaguars, and Chargers - the only AFC teams with a 3-1 record. Could the road to the Super Bowl run through Highmark Stadium?
🏆️ Bills' best Super Bowl odds (+460)
The Bills' odds are as short as +400, which implies a 20% chance they win the Super Bowl. You can still bet them at +460 odds via FanDuel, which would turn a $10 bet into a $46 profit if they win it all.
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🔴 Chiefs flash Super Bowl upside in Ravens blowout
By now, we should all know better than to doubt the Chiefs during the regular season - especially if they aren't at full strength. But Kansas City reminded any lingering doubters about its potential with a 37-20 beatdown over Baltimore that was simply never in doubt.
Mahomes looked like his vintage self against the Ravens, throwing for 270 yards and four touchdowns to climb the NFL MVP odds and carry the Chiefs back to .500 through the first four weeks. It helped to have speedy wideout Xavier Worthy in the lineup, as he lead the team in rushing yards (38) and receiving yards (83) while coming close to multiple scores.
Once Rashee Rice returns from suspension, we could see what this offense is fully capable of. And with Steve Spagnuolo's defense producing one of its best efforts yet, it just might be time to buy stock in the defending AFC champions.
🏆️ Chiefs' best Super Bowl odds (+1000)
After beating the Ravens in Week 4, the Chiefs' odds are as short as +800, which implies an 11.11% chance they win for a fourth time in the Mahomes era. You can find better value at BetMGM, where a $10 bet would return a $100 profit.
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🎯 Best long-shot bets to win the Super Bowl
Our NFL player prop odds features the latest Super Bowl odds for every team and updates live in real time.
🐏 Los Angeles Rams (+1800)
Even though it took a miracle to win in Week 4, I've still been impressed with the Rams' 3-1 run to open the year after it looked like Matthew Stafford's back injury might lead to a slow start. This team has all the pieces to make a deep run, though the margin for error is slim in a tough NFC West.
⛵️ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3000)
I'm not quitting on the Buccaneers after a close loss to the Eagles that could have gone the other way if not for a few dropped interceptions for Tampa Bay and an ill-timed miscue by Baker Mayfield in the red zone. I'm buying what this team has shown on both ends, especially now at longer odds.
🐎 Denver Broncos (+4000)
I called out the Broncos last week after a close loss to the Chargers, and I'm still buying stock in Denver ahead of its home game against the Bengals on Monday Night Football. If that ends as a blowout - Sean Payton's team is favored by 8.5 points - this price won't last for long.
🟢 Seattle Seahawks (+4500)
The Seahawks were another team I highlighted last week before they smothered the Cardinals in a 23-20 win that didn't feel that close. Sam Darnold is making the right plays in his debut season for Seattle, which is also showing flashes defensively under second-year head coach Mike Macdonald.
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