Which Super Bowl 2026 MVP Sleeper Picks Represent Best Bets & Are They Worth the Squeeze?
When deciding which Super Bowl 2026 MVP sleeper picks to make, consider this:
Everyone outside of the favored four, Sam Darnold, Drake Maye, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Kenneth Walker III, is considered a sleeper pick. While that doesn't exactly narrow the field, don't worry about sifting through a list that is as extensive as an NFL playbook, as I've narrowed the scope to a few gems.
As part of our Super Bowl predictions, let's get into who I believe can wake up in a big way for the Big Game.
π Super Bowl MVP long-shot winners
In an era dominated by Super Bowl MVP odds favorites, namely quarterbacks, it's nice to remind ourselves that long shots can indeed win Super Bowl MVP.
Don't let the fact that QBs have won 34 of 59 Super Bowl MVPs get you down. The important thing, as with all sleeper picks, is knowing there is precedent and that your bet has a chance of cashing; not a big chance, but that's the point of a long-shot pick.
On to the somewhat sobering stats, which emphasize what we're up against in picking a viable Super Bowl 2026 MVP sleeper pick. Only three players have won Super Bowl MVP with odds of +2000 or longer since 2009, the first year Super Bowl MVP odds were assigned.
Here's that abbreviated list:
| Super Bowl MVP | Team (Year) | Position | Odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malcolm Smith | Seahawks (2013) | MLB | +2200 | 4.35% |
| Von Miller | Broncos (2015) | OLB | +2200 | 4.35% |
| Julian Edelman | Patriots (2018) | WR | +2000 | 4.76% |
I'm sure you noticed two things: The list is about as short as Jarrett Stidham's time as a starting quarterback, and two of the three long-shot winners played for the Seahawks and Patriots, the Super Bowl 60 finalists. The latter could be a good omen, right?
💡 Biggest challenge choosing Super Bowl MVP sleeper pick
- The gap between Walker (+800), who is receiving the fourth-shortest odds, and Stevenson (+3000), receiving the fifth-shortest odds, is significant
- No player with odds longer than +2200 has ever won Super Bowl MVP since odds were implemented
- If a sleeper pick wins Super Bowl MVP, it would be the first time a player with odds of +3000 or more takes the honors
π Best Super Bowl 2026 MVP sleeper picks
Darnold opened as the betting favorite via the Super Bowl MVP odds. He's remained on top of the odds leaderboard, with the other likely suspects including Maye (+240), Smith-Njigba (+600), and Walker (+850).
If you're pulling for Mike Vrabel's team, you'll probably want to follow along with how Patriots fans are betting Super Bowl 2026. If you sit on the other side of the fence, you'll more closely align with how Seahawks fans are betting Super Bowl 2026.
For neutrals, aligning your Super Bowl MVP choice with our Seahawks vs. Patriots prediction. The picks below are ranked on a 1-5 star scale.
πͺ Rhamondre Stevenson, RB (Patriots) ββββ
Rhamondre Stevenson represents the best sleeper pick. It was clear last week against Denver how much Vrabel and Co. trust their primary running back. He had 25 carries in inclement conditions, while rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson had three.
He rushed for 70 yards against the Houston Texan in the Divisional Round and followed that up with a 71-yard performance in the AFC Championship Game. In the Wild Card Round, Stevenson had 75 receiving yards on just three receptions.
It's that dual threat, along with being the Patriots' go-to option out of the backfield, that provides an advantage over other long-shot contenders.
Super Bowl MVP odds: +3000
Playoff stats: 3.8 yards per attempt, 194 rushing yards, 86 receiving yards, 12.3 yards per reception, 64.7 rushing yards per game
Season highlights: 131 rushing yards against Dolphins in Week 18, 2 games with 88 rushing yards or more, 9 TDs, 10.8 yards per reception, 88 receiving yards against the Dolphins in Week 2
Concerns: He's facing the regular season's best run defense via DVOA
RB Super Bowl MVP history: 7 running backs have won Super Bowl MVP
πͺ Stefon Diggs, WR (Patriots) ββββ
Stefon Diggs is no longer as influential as he once was, but the Patriots' wide receiver is capable of enjoying a standout performance in the Big Game.
He also plays wide receiver, the position that has accumulated the second-most MVP awards (9). Diggs scored a TD against the Texans in the Divisional Round, but hasn't accounted for more than 40 receiving yards in three postseason games.
However, he had five games with at least 100 yards during the regular season.
Super Bowl MVP odds: +5000
Playoff stats: 6.6 yards per reception, 11 receptions on 17 targets, 1 TD, 24.3 receiving yards per game
Season highlights: 5 games with at least 100 yards, season-best 146 yards against Bills, 1,013 yards, 4 TDs
Concerns: He isn't Maye's primary option and has eclipsed 43 receiving yards only twice in the last nine games
WR Super Bowl MVP history: 9 wide receivers have won Super Bowl MVP
π’ Cooper Kupp, WR (Seahawks) βββ
Can Cooper Kupp dial back the years and emulate his Super Bowl MVP-winning performance against the Cincinnati Bengals? It's possible, if not probable.
He had moment of vintage Kupp in both playoff games, amassing 96 yards on 9 receptions and 11 targets. He also scored a TD against the Rams in the NFC Championship. His best game in the regular season came against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 2, where he had 90 yards on seven receptions.
Super Bowl MVP odds: +10000
Playoff stats: 12.6 yards per reception, 11 receptions on 17 targets, 1 TD, 24.3 receiving yards per game
Season highlights: 12.6 yards per reception, no 100-yard games, 593 yards
Concerns: He isn't Darnold's primary option, and his stats from the season and playoffs leave a lot to be desired
πͺ Marcus Jones, CB (Patriots) βββ
Marcus Jones has a couple of things working in his favor. He's an elite cornerback and one of the best punt returners in the game. In fact, Jones holds the NFL's all-time punt-return average record at 14.3 yards per punt return. And he was named as a second-team selection to the 2025 AP NFL All-Pro Team.
Jones is the first player in franchise history to have multiple All-Pro selections as a punt returner, as he earned a first-team spot in 2022, his first year as a pro. Regarding his primary position, Jones was named October's Defensive Player of the Month for his cornerback work.
His best moment in these playoffs came in the Divisional Round when he picked off C.J. Stroud.
Super Bowl MVP odds: +10000
Playoff stats: 8.1 yards per punt return, 11 solo tackles, 1 interception
Season highlights: 2 TD punt returns, 3 interceptions, 17.3 yards per return
Concerns: Only one cornerback, Larry Brown in 1995, won Super Bowl MVP
CB Super Bowl MVP history: 1 cornerback won Super Bowl
π’ Devon Witherspoon, CB (Seahawks) ββ
In the NFC Championship Game, cornerback Devon Witherspoon broke up back-to-back passes in the end zone to force a turnover on downs, thwarting the Ramsβ final scoring threat. That sealed Seattle's win.
While those two plays would not be enough to win Super Bowl MVP, it's a blueprint for Witherspoon to work from. He also had six solo tackles against the Rams.
Super Bowl MVP odds: +12500
Playoff stats: 9 solo tackles, 4 assisted tackles, 3 passes defended, 92% of defensive snaps
Season highlights: 48 solo tackles, 24 assisted tackles, 1 interception, 1 fumble recovery, 7 passes defended
Concerns: Struggle to get enough chances to influence the game
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