Super Bowl MVP Odds: Sam Darnold Opens as Betting Favorite to Win Award Over Drake Maye
A few years ago, Sam Darnold was cast off as an NFL starting QB before reviving his career over the last two years. Now, he's the betting favorite by the Super Bowl MVP odds ahead of Seahawks vs. Patriots in Super Bowl 60.
Seattle's starting QB opened as the betting favorite to win Super Bowl MVP after arguably the best performance of his career - throwing for 346 yards and three touchdowns to lead the Seahawks to an NFC Championship. Seattle opened as the favorite by the Super Bowl opening odds to beat the Patriots on Sunday, Feb. 8, with the Big Game kickoff set for 6:30 p.m. ET from Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif.
Darnold is priced just ahead of Patriots QB Drake Maye, who has struggled this postseason but scored the game-winning touchdown in the AFC Championship Game and was arguably the most impressive player in the league during the regular season.
Here's a look at the opening odds to win Super Bowl MVP, including my prediction to win the award and favorite long shots to bet early before the market adjusts.
🏆 Super Bowl MVP opening odds: Early favorites to win award
See the latest NFL odds and our expert NFL picks for every playoff matchup.
| Player | Odds (DraftKings) | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold, QB, Seahawks | +130 | $13 |
| Drake Maye, QB, Patriots | +235 | $23.50 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seahawks | +550 | $55 |
| Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seahawks | +600 | $60 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, Patriots | +2500 | $250 |
| Rashid Shaheed, WR, Seahawks | +2800 | $280 |
| Marcus Jones, CB, Patriots | +5500 | $550 |
| Stefon Diggs, WR, Patriots | +6000 | $600 |
| Ernest Jones IV, LB, Seahawks | +7500 | $750 |
| Nick Emmanwori, S, Seahawks | +7500 | $750 |
| Drew Lock, QB, Seahawks | +7500 | $750 |
| TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Patriots | +7500 | $750 |
| Devon Witherspoon, CB, Seahawks | +9000 | $900 |
| Leonard Williams, DT, Seahawks | +9000 | $900 |
| Uchenna Nwosu, LB, Seahawks | +9000 | $900 |
| Cooper Kupp, WR, Seahawks | +9000 | $900 |
| Jason Myers, K, Seahawks | +9000 | $900 |
| AJ Barner, TE, Seahawks | +9000 | $900 |
| Demarcus Lawrence, DE, Seahawks | +9000 | $900 |
| Kayshon Boutte, WR, Patriots | +11000 | $1,100 |
| Christian Gonzalez, CB, Patriots | +11000 | $1,100 |
| Hunter Henry, TE, Patriots | +11000 | $1,100 |
| K'Lavon Chaisson, LB, Patriots | +14000 | $1,400 |
| Julian Love, S, Seahawks | +14000 | $1,400 |
| Byron Murphy II, DT, Seahawks | +14000 | $1,400 |
| Jake Bobo, WR, Seahawks | +14000 | $1,400 |
| Carlton Davis III, CB, Patriots | +19000 | $1,900 |
| Harold Landry III, LB, Patriots | +19000 | $1,900 |
| Mack Hollins, WR, Patriots | +19000 | $1,900 |
| Andy Borregales, K, Patriots | +19000 | $1,900 |
| Khyiris Tonga, DT, Patriots | +25000 | $2,500 |
| D'Ernest Johnson, RB, Patriots | +25000 | $2,500 |
| Demario Douglas, WR, Patriots | +25000 | $2,500 |
| Kyle Williams, WR, Patriots | +25000 | $2,500 |
| Dareke Young, WR, Seahawks | +25000 | $2,500 |
| Christian Barmore, DT, Patriots | +25000 | $2,500 |
| Milton Williams, DT, Patriots | +25000 | $2,500 |
| Coby Bryant, S, Seahawks | +25000 | $2,500 |
| Riq Woolen, CB, Seahawks | +25000 | $2,500 |
| Robert Spillane, LB, Patriots | +25000 | $2,500 |
| Austin Hooper, TE, Patriots | +50000 | $5,000 |
| Eric Saubert, TE, Seahawks | +50000 | $5,000 |
| Michael Dickson, P, Seahawks | +70000 | $7,000 |
| Velus Jones Jr, WR, Patriots | +80000 | $8,000 |
| Bryce Baringer, P, Patriots | +80000 | $8,000 |
| Nick Kallerup, TE, Seahawks | +100000 | $10,000 |
| CJ Dippre, TE, Patriots | +100000 | $10,000 |
| Efton Chism III, WR, Patriots | +100000 | $10,000 |
Darnold might not be the best player in this game (or even on his own team), but he's been the frontman for the Seahawks' surge to the Super Bowl in his first season since signing a $100 million contract in the offseason to become the face of the franchise. That alone makes him an obvious candidate to lead the way across the best Super Bowl betting sites to win Super Bowl MVP honors for the title favorites.
The former No. 3 overall pick has avoided the calamitous turnovers that plagued the first seven seasons of his pro career, especially in this postseason, as he's led one of the most dominant teams in NFL history to the doorstep of a championship. Assuming Darnold can keep his powder dry in the Big Game, he'll be in line to take home this award.
Don't count out Maye, though, who has donned the cape for his Patriots all season long amid the greatest one-year turnaround in NFL history and an inspired run atop the NFL MVP odds. He found ways to make an impact through a snowstorm in the AFC Championship, and if New England manages to pull off the upset in the Big Game, he'll be the overwhelming favorite to win this award.
🔮 Super Bowl MVP prediction: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seahawks (+550)
While Darnold opens as the favorite to win Super Bowl MVP, the best player in this matchup is Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who was unstoppable in the NFC Championship en route to a 10-catch, 153-yard performance to help the Seahawks punch their ticket to the Super Bowl for the first time in over a decade.
Smith-Njigba posted one of the best seasons of all time in the regular season with 1,793 receiving yards - seventh-most in NFL history - and 10 touchdowns as the primary weapon for Darnold, and offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak even used JSN out of the backfield in order to find creative ways to get the ball to his superstar receiver.
With two weeks to prepare against a surging but overmatched Patriots defense, I fully expect Smith-Njigba to make his presence felt all over the field a la Cooper Kupp in 2021 or Julian Edelman in 2018. Wide receiver was quietly been the most profitable position to bet in this market over the last decade, and I'm buying early at these odds before the betting public falls in love with the biggest superstar in this matchup.
💰 Best Super Bowl MVP long shots
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Rashid Shaheed, WR, Seahawks (+2800)
It's pretty easy to map out the game script in which Shaheed wins this award - he returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown in the NFL Divisional Round and then hauled in a 51-yard reception on the opening drive for the Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game. If he can string together both in a single game? Watch out.
TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Patriots (+7500)
I don't expect the Patriots to win this game, but if they do, a few explosive runs from rookie TreVeyon Henderson would be a pretty critical path to success. New England's run game has been hit or miss this season while relying heavily on chunk gains from Henderson, who has the type of game-breaking speed to have a Willie Parker-like impact on this game and possibly steal MVP honors as a long shot.
Nick Emmanwori, S, Seahawks (+7500)
If you haven't heard of Nick Emmanwori before, get ready to hear NFL experts sing his praises over the next two weeks as the Swiss army knife for Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald in the "big nickel" role for his defense. The rookie out of South Carolina has made an instant impact this season for one of the best defenses of all time, and if he's the one making game-changing plays - like a defensive touchdown or critical late turnover - he could sneak his way onto the podium as the face of a dominant defense.
📜 Past Super Bowl MVP winners
Here's a look at the last 10 Super Bowl MVP winners entering Super Bowl 60:
| Season | Player |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles |
| 2023 | Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs |
| 2022 | Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs |
| 2021 | Cooper Kupp, WR, Rams |
| 2020 | Tom Brady, QB, Patriots |
| 2019 | Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs |
| 2018 | Julian Edelman, WR, Patriots |
| 2017 | Nick Foles, QB, Eagles |
| 2016 | Tom Brady, QB, Patriots |
| 2015 | Von Miller, LB, Broncos |
❓ Super Bowl 60 FAQs
Who is favored to win the Super Bowl?
The Seattle Seahawks are the Super Bowl favorites with odds of -205 to beat the New England Patriots in Super Bowl 2026. Those odds carry an implied probability of 67.21% for the Seahawks to win the Super Bowl, according to our odds converter.
When is the Super Bowl?
The Super Bowl will be on Sunday, Feb. 8, at 6:30 p.m. ET from Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif.
Where is the Super Bowl?
Super Bowl 60 will be at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., on Sunday, Feb. 8 at 6:30 p.m. ET.
Who's playing in the Super Bowl?
The NFC champion Seattle Seahawks will face the AFC champion New England Patriots in Super Bowl 2026.
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