Super Bowl MVP Odds & Prediction: Who’s Going to Win Super Bowl MVP?
There is almost nothing to choose between three of the four remaining QBS and their Super Bowl MVP odds.
Sam Darnold is just ahead of Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye, while Jarrett Stidham hopes to enjoy an improbable journey to Super Bowl glory. I know who my pick is, though, and I outline the reasons why as part of the NFL Conference Championship predictions.
📊 Super Bowl MVP odds 2026
2026 Super Bowl MVP odds via our best Super Bowl betting sites.
💡 Super Bowl MVP betting tips
- Five of the previous six Super Bowl MVPs were QBs, including the last three
- Since 2006, QBs on the coveted award in 14 of 19
- The three Super Bowl MVP odds favorites are QBs
- Of the four QBs in the conference championships, Maye has the most favorable matchup as he will face Jarrett Stidham, who hasn't started a playoff game
- You'll get better odds if you lock in your bet before next week's Conference Championships, so back a player on the team you're most confident in winning Super Bowl 2026
- Two of the four QBs in the Conference Championships are vying for the regular-season MVP
🟢 Sam Darnold, Super Bowl MVP odds favorite
Despite playing only one playoff game and amassing just 124 passing yards, Darnold is the Super Bowl MVP odds favorite.
While his Divisional Round stats won't jump off the page, Darnold managed the matchup expertly and didn't turn the ball over, which he was susceptible to during the regular season.
However, I'm not thrilled about Darnold as the favorite, and I wouldn't back him at these comparatively short odds despite the Seahawks owning the shortest Super Bowl odds.
If the Seahawks win the Super Bowl, it will be due to their bruising defense, a dynamic performance from Kenneth Walker III, or an all-world outing from Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
🐏 Matthew Stafford on the hunt for MVP double
Stafford, 37, looks to become the seventh player in NFL history to win regular-season MVP and Super Bowl MVP in the same season. We still don't know whether he will win the regular-season MVP, but he finished as the -145 betting favorite.
If he does pull off the feat, he'll become the first player since Patrick Mahomes in 2022 to do so. Another member of the Rams, Kurt Warner of the St. Louis Rams, was the previous player to win the double. That occurred in his storied 1999 season. All six who accomplished the double act were QBs.
Stafford would become just the third player to take the plaudits at 37 years or older, with Tom Brady and John Elway the other two. By the way, Brady won it a remarkable three times after his 37th birthday.
🪖 Drake Maye's Super Bowl MVP stock rising
Can you imagine Maye winning the regular-season MVP and Super Bowl MVP in his second season as a pro? That inconceivable notion before the season is now possible.
The regular-season MVP is either his or Stafford's, and Maye is now just a victory away from punching his Super Bowl ticket. If he beats the Broncos, which I projected in my Patriots vs. Broncos prediction, he will become the third-youngest QB in NFL history to play in the Super Bowl.
Dan Marino and Mike Tomczak would edge the 23-year-old Maye by a matter of months.
In inclement conditions during the Divisional Round, Maye had 179 passing yards and tossed 3 TD passes, along with 1 interception, in the win over the Houston Texans. He did, however, fumble four times, losing possession twice.
🐎 Jarrett Stidham a popular long shot
Jarrett Stidham will make his first regular-season start in over two seasons in this Sunday's AFC Championship Game after the season-ending injury to Bo Nix.
Our Corey Scott explored the Jarrett Stidham Super Bowl MVP odds and whether or not the Broncos' new starting quarterback is worth a futures bet.
🛑 What happens to a Super Bowl MVP bet if players are eliminated?
All bets in this market are action, which means if a player you choose to win Super Bowl MVP doesn't actually make it to the Big Game, your bets won't be void - they'll be treated as a losing wager.
👀 Super Bowl MVP prediction & best bet
Matthew Stafford (+275)
I'm predicting the Rams, who have the second-shortest Super Bowl odds, will lift the Lombardi Trophy. That's why I'm backing Stafford to win Super Bowl MVP.
He can win games in various ways, whether by a dominant, lopsided performance or having to scratch and claw his way to victory, as he did in Chicago earlier.
Stafford is by far the most experienced QB entering the Conference Championships, which should benefit him in crunch time as it did at Soldier Field. Speaking of Soldier Field, Stafford had 258 passing yards and didn't throw a pick in awful conditions.
For the first time all season, he posted a completion rate under 50%, completing 20 of 42 passes. That's how woeful the weather in Chicago was. Stafford earned his 55th career game-winning drive in the 4th quarter in the Divisional Round. That's 11 more than the next closest QBs since he broke into the league in 2009.
Complemented by a Rams' defense that expertly executes a bend-but-don't-break mantra, I'm confident in Stafford winning Super Bowl MVP after they escape Seattle with a late victory, which I covered in my Rams vs. Seahawks prediction.
Best bet: Matthew Stafford to win Super Bowl MVP (+275 via bet365)
🤑 Super Bowl MVP betting insights
Betting insights via BetMGM, current as of Jan. 21.
| Player | Odds | Ticket % 🎟️ | Handle % 💰 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye, QB, Patriots | +300 | 7.6% | 10.4% |
| Puka Nacua, WR, Rams | +1600 | 5.6% | 2.8% |
| Matthew Stafford, QB, Rams | +300 | 5.3% | 3.9% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seahawks | +1200 | 4.8% | 26.3% |
| Bo Nix, QB, Broncos | Off the board | 4.4% | 1.8% |
| Sam Darnold, QB, Seahawks | +240 | 3.4% | 7.2% |
| Jarrett Stidham, QB, Broncos | +2000 | 2.9% | 2.4% |
| Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seahawks | +1400 | 2% | 0.8% |
| Nik Bonitto, LB, Broncos | +10000 | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Patrick Surtain III, CB, Broncos | +25000 | 1.3% | 0.4% |
🗒️ Super Bowl MVP betting strategy
The first thing you need to decide is which team you think will win the Super Bowl. That will inform your Super Bowl MVP decision.
From there, I'd choose the player with the highest likelihood of making the biggest difference in the Big Game. Odds favor three of the four remaining quarterbacks. As I'm backing the Los Angeles Rams to win the Super Bowl, Stafford stands out as the best option.
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