Raiders vs. Broncos Prediction & Odds for Thursday Night Football: NFL Week 10 Betting Preview
The AFC West-leading Denver Broncos welcome the division rival Las Vegas Raiders to Empower Field at Mile High for Thursday Night Football, and my Raiders vs. Broncos prediction expects the home betting favorite to take care of business.
The game starts at 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video), and the Broncos enter on a six-game win streak, which is surely a factor in them being the 9 or 9.5-point betting favorite. I'm also featuring a Courtland Sutton player prop while expecting another productive home outing from the Broncos' wide receiver. Let's dive in as part of our Week 10 NFL predictions.
✅ Raiders vs. Broncos prediction & expert picks
See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 10.
💵 Best Raiders vs. Broncos bets
- Game prediction: Broncos -9 (-105 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Under 42.5 (-106 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- Best prop bet: Courtland Sutton Over 53.5 receiving yards (-113 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
📊 Raiders vs. Broncos odds
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🏈 Thursday Night Football preview & score prediction
The Raiders have been the worst road team over their last three games while losing by an average margin of 27.3 points and allowing 384 yards of total offense.
Geno Smith, who's consistently near the bottom of our Clutch Factor power rankings, deals with pressure poorly. Only five QBs with at least five starts are worse under pressure, which is reflected in his 42.1 ranking at PFF.
That's a gloomy state considering the Broncos' propensity to pressure the opposing QB. Vance Joseph's defense blitzes the seventh-most (27.4%) and has registered the third-highest pressure rate (28.2%). The unit has tallied 40 sacks, which is a remarkable 12 more than the second-place Detroit Lions.
The Raiders' lack of a ground game is a primary contributing factor to Smith's inability to cope with pressure. They field the worst run unit, according to DVOA and EPA per play. That should represent a perfect storm for Denver's defense, which should resemble a group of sharks detecting plenty of chum to go around.
Caesars and BetMGM are the only remaining best sports betting sites offering Broncos at -9, with Caesars' -108 odds providing the best value. A winning $10 bet will profit $9.26.
Score prediction: Broncos 27, Raiders 14
💡 More Week 10 predictions
Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game in Week 10.
🆚 Key matchup to watch on TNF
Courtland Sutton vs. Raiders' secondary
The Raiders allow the fifth-most yards per game (165.12) to opposing wide receivers and they've given up 245 passing yards per contest on the road.
Sutton is much more productive at Mile High Stadium, where he averages 74 receiving yards, and he's hit the Over on this total in all four home games.
Bo Nix has also been more formidable through the air at home while averaging 284 passing yards in the previous three. Only DraftKings and FanDuel offer the lower 53.5-yard total, with the former (-113) providing the best value. The -113 odds imply a 53.05% win probability, and a winning $10 bet will profit $8.85.
Best prop bet: Courtland Sutton Over 53.5 receiving yards (-113 via DraftKings)
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📈 Raiders vs. Broncos betting trends
| Raiders | Statistic | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 2-6 | W-L record | 7-2 |
| 3-5 | ATS record | 4-4-1 |
| 3-5 | O/U record | 3-6 |
| 5.0 | Yards per play | 5.4 |
| 5.2 | Yards allowed per play | 4.5 |
| -0.6 | Turnover margin | -0.3 |
| 1-4 | Last 5 games | 5-0 |
| L, 30-29 vs. Jaguars | Previous result | W, 18-15 vs. Texans |
🚑 Raiders vs. Broncos injury report
🌤️ Raiders vs. Broncos weather
It will be cool, clear, and mostly calm for TNF in the Mile High City. The temperature is expected to drop to approximately 43 degrees, with clear skies and no chance of precipitation. The wind will average 7 mph, with gusts reaching 19 mph.
Check our NFL weather report for the latest forecasts and betting impacts for every game this week.
📺 How to watch Thursday Night Football: Raiders vs. Broncos
- Date: Thursday, Nov. 6
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: Empower Field at Mile High (Denver)
- TV: Prime Video
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