NFL Week 1 Player Prop Picks: Barkley's Big Season Begins

Offering up the top three player prop picks for Week 1 in the NFL. Three yardage totals to target.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 13, 2022 3:38 PM EDT • 3 minute read

Josh Allen leads the preseason Super Bowl favorite Buffalo Bills to face the Los Angeles Rams on opening night of the 2022 NFL season, but will the Rams' defense treat him kindly? Read on for our top NFL prop bets for Week 1.

As bettors become increasingly frustrated with their lack of success wagering on standard moneylines, spreads, and Over/Unders, prop bets are becoming increasingly popular. This week’s prop wagers are all player props, as we have identified quarterbacks to support and to fade, as well as a running back that will shine now that he is healthy.

Here are our NFL prop picks for Week 1 based on the odds at BetMGM and DraftKings Sportsbook.

NFL Week 1 Player Prop Picks

NFL Week 1 Prop Picks Analysis

Allen Under 276.5 passing yards (-115)

Josh Allen threw for 4,407 yards last season and enters this year as the favorite at most sportsbooks to win NFL MVP. However, even though the Buffalo Bills are expected to beat the defending champion Los Angele Rams in Week 1, he should be tamed by a talented defense.

When facing zone coverage last season, Allen had a 50.2 QBR (ranked 17th), completed 66% of his passes (28th), and had 7.1 yards per attempt (20th), per Next Gen Stats. This is significant because the Rams used zone coverage at the second-highest rate in the league (68%) in 2021.

Allen threw for 311 yards in a 35-32 win against the Rams in Week 3 in 2020. However, he was also pressured on 40.5% of his dropbacks in that game, and Los Angeles’ defense should be much improved after adding future Hall of Famer Bobby Wagner to its linebacking corps this offseason. Thus, Allen is in for a great year, but temper your expectations of him in the season opener.

Check out the latest comprehensive and most trusted Sportsbook Reviews by SBR.

Lance Over 209.5 passing yards (-120)

Trey Lance was handed the keys to a playoff-caliber team, as the San Francisco 49ers believe his athleticism can bring them to places that Jimmy Garoppolo couldn’t. Lance went 1-1 in two starts last year, throwing five touchdowns to two interceptions. Per @NFLResearch, Lance had the highest passer rating (120.2) by a rookie quarterback with a clean pocket since 2016 (minimum 50 pass attempts). Considering that the Chicago Bears lost Akiem Hicks and Khalil Mack from a defense that already had trouble pressuring the quarterback last season, Lance should have plenty of clean pockets in Week 1.

Garoppolo threw for 322 yards in a 33-22 win over the Bears last season. And with the 49ers' best running back, Elijah Mitchell, still hampered by a hamstring injury, we should see head coach Kyle Shanahan’s club air it out more than usual in Week 1.

Barkley Over 55.5 rushing yards (-115)

This number feels awfully low for a running back who was once considered a generational talent that warranted selecting him at No. 2 in the 2018 NFL Draft. New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley missed 21 games over the last three seasons, including four last year due to an ankle injury. However, he is healthy now, and new head coach Brian Daboll will likely feature Barkley a ton while he has him available to trot out on the field.

As offensive coordinator with the Bills, Daboll passed the ball on 59.21% of offensive plays. But with Giants QB Daniel Jones not nearly as talented as Josh Allen, Daboll will have no choice but to try and pound the rock. Barkley’s 3.5 yards per rush since 2020 is the worst rate of any running back with a minimum of 150 attempts in that span, but we believe a fresh start and spry legs will help him leave those numbers as a thing of the past.

Where to Bet on NFL Prop Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

NFL player prop picks made on 9/7/2022 at 6:20 a.m. ET.

Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”