NFL Picks Against the Spread: ATS Predictions for Every Week 14 Game

Let's get stuck into my NFL picks against the spread for Week 14, which feature the Washington Commanders, Philadelphia Eagles, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 

I've also predicted the outcome of every game on the slate, intent on improving my 83-77-4 overall ATS record. The analysis below is part of our Week 14 NFL predictions.  

NFL picks against the spread: Week 14 ATS predictions

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 14 based on the latest NFL odds; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

My best ATS picks for Week 14

Commanders (-1.5) vs. Vikings ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Jayden Daniels has a chance of playing in Week 14, but I don't think he'll win the race against time. Regardless of who lines up under center, I'm backing the Commanders. Despite Marcus Mariota losing five of six starts, I have more faith in him than J.J. McCarthy. 

Since McCarthy's Week 1 win in Chicago, the Vikings have averaged 15 points per game with him under center. The de facto rookie has thrown two TDs and six interceptions in his previous three starts.

Mariota, meanwhile, has five TDs and two picks in the last three games and was a 2-point conversion away from upsetting the AFC West-leading Denver Broncos on Sunday Night Football. 

In addition, the Vikings are 1-4 ATS at U.S. Bank Stadium and 0-3 with McCarthy under center. Of the best sports betting sites, DraftKings and FanDuel offer the best value (-105). A winning $10 bet will profit $9.52. 

Eagles (-2.5) vs. Chargers ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Eagles are in desperate need of a bounce-back performance. While there are obviously a medley of issues plaguing the defending Super Bowl champions, they are playing the Chargers at an opportune time, with Justin Herbert's status in question. 

Herbert had surgery on his non-throwing hand after the 31-14 Week 13 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders. Even if Herbert plays, there will be certain limitations that prevent him from playing with the dynamism that makes him elite.

That will be enough to open the door for the Eagles, who conjured a massive performance in Minnesota the last time they faced the prospect of a three-game losing skid.

Two of the best sports betting apps - DraftKings and bet365 - offer the Eagles at -2.5, with the former providing the best odds (-118). A winning $10 bet will profit $8.47. 

Buccaneers (-8.5) vs. Saints ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Buccaneers ended their three-game losing streak with a 3-point win over the Arizona Cardinals. Bucky Irving made a triumphant return to the lineup, and his presence is a key factor in backing Tampa Bay to cover the spread at home in Week 14. 

While the Buccaneers are a disappointing 1-4 ATS at home, the New Orleans Saints offer a perfect cure for what ails them.

Tampa Bay beat the Saints 23-3 in the Big Easy in Week 8. In addition, four of the Saints' five road losses have come by at least 12 points, with an average margin of defeat of 20 points. 

It looked as though the Saints were on their way to another lopsided road defeat in Week 13 before the Miami Dolphins let their foot off the gas in the second half. DraftKings offers the best value, with its -108 odds implying a 51.92% probability. A winning $10 bet will profit $9.26.