NFL Picks Against the Spread: ATS Predictions for Every Week 13 Game

My NFL picks against the spread for Week 13 feature three headlining matchups, with predictions for every game on the slate.

Last week's ATS picks were on the wrong side of three defeats by two points or fewer, but I'm optimistic the balance will be restored this week. The picks below are part of the NFL predictions for Week 13. 

🏈 NFL picks against the spread: Week 13 ATS predictions

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 13 based on the latest NFL odds; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

💰 My best ATS picks for Week 13

🔴 Chiefs (-3) vs. Cowboys ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This pick boils down to me trusting the Kansas City Chiefs' defense to make more stops than Dallas. When it had to, Kansas' defense stepped up against an Indianapolis Colts team with the second-best offensive DVOA, holding them to five second-half first downs.

While the Cowboys are playing inspired football, the Chiefs are a better all-around team. And they're desperate, which should elicit the best from Patrick Mahomes and Co. 

I also can't see the Chiefs losing a fourth straight on the road. If they do, it will be the first time in eight years that fate has befallen them. The Cowboys' defense has improved remarkably over the last two weeks, but I don't see it being sustainable.  

In addition, the Cowboys are 3-11 ATS in the last 14 Thanksgiving games. Caesars provides the best value (-114), with those odds implying a 53.27% probability. A winning $10 bet will profit $8.77. 

⚡️ Chargers (-9.5) vs. Raiders ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Pete Carroll's first year in Sin City has not gone as envisioned, with six of his team's nine losses coming by at least 11 points. They score the fewest points per game (15.0), tied with the New Orleans Saints.

If that's not bad enough, they're among the 10 worst-scoring defenses, allowing 25.2 points per game. 

And they lost each of the last three games against the Los Angeles Chargers by at least 11 points. The Chargers, whose collective battery will be recharged after the bye week, will take confidence from their previous two home games, both of which they won by at least 15 points. 

The odds for the Chargers to cover range from -108 to -115, with DraftKings offering the former. Those odds will profit $9.26. 

🟢 Seahawks (-10.5) vs. Vikings ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I have no faith in the Minnesota Vikings offense. The Vikings have lost five of the last six games, four of which they failed to score 20 points. A 22-point performance at home against the Philadelphia Eagles with Carson Wentz under center was the only exception.

That's an ominous prospect against a Seattle Seahawks team with the fourth-best defensive DVOA. The Vikings scored just six points on the road against a Green Bay Packers team with the ninth-best defensive DVOA. 

In their previous three away games, Minnesota mustered just 14 points per game, the third fewest. They face a Seattle Seahawks team with the fourth-best offensive DVOA, which scores the third-most points per game (29.5) and the fourth most at home (29.5). 

It's also a revenge game for Sam Darnold. Rest assured, he'll be hellbent on being at his best against the team that discarded him like a piece of charcoaled toast. Four of the five best sports betting sites offer -105 odds, which will profit $9.52 if the Seahawks cover.