NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 11 Best Bets & ATS Predictions for Every Game

My NFL picks against the spread for Week 11 provide an ATS prediction for every game, while featuring the Miami Dolphins, Dallas Cowboys, and Baltimore Ravens. 

I've experienced some bad beats before, but the Jacksonville Jaguars' loss to the Houston Texans was a special kind of abhorrent. If you don't know what I mean, watch the final play of the game, keeping in mind that I had the Jaguars at +1.5. My 65-54 ATS record for the season helps lessen the blow of that bizarre scenario. The picks below are part of the NFL predictions for Week 11.

🏈 NFL picks against the spread: Week 11 ATS predictions

NFL picks against the spread based on the latest NFL odds and subject to change; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

💰 My best Week 11 ATS picks

🐬 Dolphins (-2.5) vs. Commanders ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Dolphins enjoyed their best performance of the season in Week 10, beating the injury-hit Buffalo Bills by 17 points. It's been a whacky few weeks for the Dolphins, who've alternated lopsided wins and losses since Week 7. That made this game one of the biggest movers in the NFL Week 11 odds.

While it remains unclear whether Miami will finally sustain some momentum, one thing is for sure: The Dolphins are playing against a Washington Commanders team whose season is spiraling in the wrong direction. Washington has lost five straight, four of which by at least 21 points. 

Marcus Mariota is 1-3 as the team's starter, and the defense has been arguably the worst unit since the losing skid started, which I covered in detail in my early Dolphins vs. Commanders prediction. 

The odds for the Dolphins to win by at least three points range from -115 to -120, with the former offered by FanDuel and DraftKings. Those odds imply a 53.49% probability, and a winning $10 bet will yield an $8.70 profit. 

Our Mike Spector is backing the Dolphins with his NFL survivor pool picks.

🐦‍⬛ Ravens (-8) vs. Browns ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Escaping Huntington Bank Field with a victory of at least eight points is chock-full of challenges, most prominent of which is Cleveland's third-ranked defense in terms of EPA per play.

However, Lamar Jackson has led the Baltimore Ravens to successive covers since returning to the lineup. 

He should be even sharper in his third game back from injury, with confidence and game sharpness fully restored. He'll be a man on a mission, considering how much ground the Ravens have to make up after starting the season 1-5.

The Ravens' defense is as healthy as it has been all season, and it will feel like it has something to prove after a rocky patch. They will be licking their collective lips at the prospect of facing the worst offense in the league, according to DVOA.  

Of the best sports betting sites, only BetMGM offers the Ravens at -8. The others have them listed at -8.5. A winning $10 bet at BetMGM's -110 will profit $9.09. 

🤠 Cowboys (-3.5) vs. Raiders ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Dallas Cowboys have finally found a team they should be able to beat on the road, similar to when they traveled to MetLife Stadium and spanked the New York Jets in Week 5.

The Raiders' woeful offense, which ranks third-worst in terms of DVOA and EPA per play, should have more success against the Cowboys' second-worst defense. However, the Cowboys' offense has the explosiveness to dominate a middling Raiders' defense, providing the difference-maker. 

The odds range from -105 to -111, with BetMGM offering the former. A winning $10 bet will profit $9.52. Our Phil Wood backs the Over with his early Cowboys vs. Raiders prediction.