NFL Picks Against the Spread Today: Week 11 ATS Predictions for Every Game
There's no chance my NFL picks against the spread today will get hit by the bad-beat bug this weekend, right? We're on to the Sunday slate, which kicks off at 9:30 a.m. ET between the Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins in Spain.
Nothing can compare to the final play of the game from NRG Stadium that still haunts my dreams. I'm optimistic that the curse is in the rearview as I look to improve on my overall 65-54 ATS record. As part of the Week 11 NFL predictions, I've predicted the outcome of every game on the slate, providing deeper analysis on three matchups.
🏈 NFL picks against the spread: Week 11 ATS predictions
NFL picks against the spread based on the latest NFL odds and subject to change; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Commanders vs. Dolphins (-2.5) | Dolphins (-2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Ravens (-8) vs. Browns | Ravens (-8) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Cowboys (-3.5) vs. Raiders | Cowboys (-3.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Packers (-7) vs. Giants | Packers (-7) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Lions (+1.5) vs. Eagles | Lions (+1.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Jets vs. Patriots (-11.5) | Patriots (-11.5) ✅ | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Texans (-7.5) vs. Titans | Texans (-7.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Bears vs. Vikings (-3) | Bears (+3) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Bengals vs. Steelers (-5.5) | Bengals (+5.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Panthers vs. Falcons (-3.5) | Falcons (-3.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Buccaneers vs. Bills (-5.5) | Buccaneers (+5.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Chargers (-3) vs. Jaguars | Chargers (-3) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| 49ers (-2.5) vs. Cardinals | 49ers (-2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Seahawks vs. Rams (-2.5) | Seahawks (+2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Chiefs (-3.5) vs. Broncos | Broncos (+3.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
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💰 My best Week 11 ATS picks
🐬 Dolphins (-2.5) vs. Commanders ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Dolphins enjoyed their best performance of the season in Week 10, beating the injury-hit Buffalo Bills by 17 points. It's been a whacky few weeks for the Dolphins, who've alternated lopsided wins and losses since Week 7. That made this game one of the biggest movers in the NFL Week 11 odds.
While it remains unclear whether Miami will finally sustain some momentum, one thing is for sure: The Dolphins are playing against a Washington Commanders team whose season is spiraling in the wrong direction. Washington has lost five straight, four of which by at least 21 points.
Marcus Mariota is 1-3 as the team's starter, and the defense has been arguably the worst unit since the losing skid started, which I covered in detail in my early Dolphins vs. Commanders prediction.
The odds for the Dolphins to win by at least three points range from -115 to -120, with the former offered by FanDuel and DraftKings. Those odds imply a 53.49% probability, and a winning $10 bet will yield an $8.70 profit.
Our Mike Spector is backing the Dolphins with his NFL survivor pool picks.
🐦⬛ Ravens (-8) vs. Browns ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Escaping Huntington Bank Field with a victory of at least eight points is chock-full of challenges, most prominent of which is Cleveland's third-ranked defense in terms of EPA per play.
However, Lamar Jackson has led the Baltimore Ravens to successive covers since returning to the lineup.
He should be even sharper in his third game back from injury, with confidence and game sharpness fully restored. He'll be a man on a mission, considering how much ground the Ravens have to make up after starting the season 1-5.
The Ravens' defense is as healthy as it has been all season, and it will feel like it has something to prove after a rocky patch. They will be licking their collective lips at the prospect of facing the worst offense in the league, according to DVOA.
Of the best sports betting sites, only BetMGM offers the Ravens at -8. The others have them listed at -8.5. A winning $10 bet at BetMGM's -110 will profit $9.09.
🤠 Cowboys (-3.5) vs. Raiders ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Dallas Cowboys have finally found a team they should be able to beat on the road, similar to when they traveled to MetLife Stadium and spanked the New York Jets in Week 5.
The Raiders' woeful offense, which ranks third-worst in terms of DVOA and EPA per play, should have more success against the Cowboys' second-worst defense. However, the Cowboys' offense has the explosiveness to dominate a middling Raiders' defense, providing the difference-maker.
The odds range from -105 to -111, with BetMGM offering the former. A winning $10 bet will profit $9.52. Our Phil Wood backs the Over with his early Cowboys vs. Raiders prediction.
💡 NFL expert picks today
Follow all of our NFL analysis for Week 11 throughout the week.
- NFL picks against the spread Week 11
- NFL QB clutch player ratings Week 11
- NFL survivor picks Week 11
- NFL AI predictions Week 11
- NFL weather report Week 11
- NFL upset picks Week 11
- NFL player props Week 11
- NFL best bets Week 11
- NFL moneyline picks Week 11
- NFL anytime touchdown scorer predictions Week 11
- NFL 2+ touchdown scorer predictions Week 11
- NFL anytime touchdown scorer parlay Week 11
- NFL long-shot parlay Week 11
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