Packers vs. Lions Week 18 Picks: Will Green Bay Rest Starters?

Top NFL picks for Packers vs. Lions Week 18. ATS and O/U plays for a big payout! Don't miss out! SBR - trusted by bettors for over 20 years.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: January 5, 2022 6:29 AM EST • 3 minute read

The Green Bay Packers have wrapped up the No. 1 seed in the NFC heading into their Week 18 divisional battle with the Detroit Lions. How will that factor into Green Bay’s plans for this matchup? Read on for our Packers-Lions picks.

Green Bay has won five consecutive games and six of the team's last seven. The Packers are an NFL-best 13-3, and they went 8-0 at home this season. However, they've lost two of their previous three road games. But the club has beaten the Lions five straight times, including three one-possession wins.

Meanwhile, the Lions have won two straight home games, and they'll look to improve upon a 2-15 straight-up record over their last 17 contests against divisional opponents.

Here are my Packers-Lions picks and predictions for their Week 18 NFL matchup (odds via DraftKings, and pick confidence is based on a one-to-five star scale).

Packers vs. Lions Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, Jan. 9, 1 p.m. ETTV: FOXLocation: Ford Field, Detroit, MIWeather: Indoors

Packers vs. Lions Odds Analysis

The Packers-Lions spread has undergone one of the biggest changes this season. Green Bay could be found as high as -11 on Monday morning. However, that line was taken off the board, and the Packers were reinserted at -2.5. The dramatic line move reflects Green Bay being secure in the No. 1 seed, and the possibility the team might rest starters.

The Over/Under hasn't varied as much, but it's still been changing significantly. The Packers-Lions total was 46.5 points on Monday morning, but it's dropped to as low as 42.5 now.

Packers vs. Lions Picks

Packers -2.5 (-110) ?Over 42.5 (-110) ??

Packers vs. Lions Predictions

Packers -2.5 (-110)

Will the Packers rest their starters? The uncertainty has caused the line to drop 8.5 points, and there's no definitive answer for who will play, or for how long.

“Right now, the mindset is going into this is we’re going to play our guys and we’re going to approach it like every other game," head coach Matt LaFleur said on Monday. "I just think the reason behind that is I’m not comfortable having, essentially, a three-week layoff for our guys."

Aaron Rodgers has also alluded to the need to play this week. The best guess is he plays at least a couple of series and maybe even the first half, but certainly not the entire game.

So the safer play might be a first-half wager on the Packers, which is why our full-game bet receives just a one-star confidence rating.

Over 42.5 (-110)

The Over should hit, assuming Green Bay’s offensive starters play at least a couple of series on Sunday.

Detroit is coming off a miserable defensive performance. The Lions allowed 51 points and 497 yards to a Seahawks team that had scored more than 30 points in just one of its previous seven contests. However, Detroit's offense moved the ball with Tim Boyle under center, with the Lions scoring 29 points of their own.

Detroit has been playing with a nothing-to-lose mentality for the second half of the season while often taking more risks, which will likely lead to an increase in scoring opportunities on Sunday.

Additionally, we should see the Packers' Jordan Love under center for an extended period, and he's logged only one career start. But the second-year passer should be more confident while facing a Lions team that ranks 28th in total defense, instead of a Chiefs unit that was red-hot.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Packers-Lions picks made on 1/5/2022 at 9:36 a.m. ET.

Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”