NFL Over/Under Odds Picks, Predictions for Week 18: How Will Motivation Levels Impact Totals Markets?

Check out our best NFL Over/Under picks for Week 18 based on the top odds.

Last updated: January 5, 2023 3:54 AM EST • 4 min read

A number of teams across the NFL have little to play for in the final week of the regular season, while others have plenty at stake. Read on for our Week 18 Over/Under NFL picks based on the top odds.

In the Week 18 totals market, we’re looking at the potential for some low-scoring affairs in NFC North rivalry games as well as an about-face involving expectations for the total in a contest involving the Denver Broncos.

Here are our best NFL Over/Under picks for Week 18 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

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NFL Over/Under Picks for Week 18

Vikings-Bears Under 43.5 (-110 via PointsBet)
Chargers-Broncos Over 39.5 (-110 via DraftKings, FanDuel, PointsBet)
Lions-Packers Under 49.5 (-110 via FanDuel)

NFL O/U Predictions

Vikings-Bears Under 43.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Bears’ offense Sunday is not going to be the one we’ve grown accustomed to seeing. Chicago has ruled quarterback Justin Fields out for Sunday as the game effectively doesn’t matter for the team. Though Chicago gets to play at Soldier Field, where Bears games are 5-3 on Overs this season, Nathan Peterman is likely to turn this into an ugly game.

Though his career TD:INT ratio of 3:13 could result in defensive scoring for Minnesota, we’re not counting on chaos to get the Vikings north of 30 points. That’s what it would likely take to get this game Over given the Bears won’t likely be contributing much. Minnesota has averaged 21.7 points per road game this season.

The majority of sportsbooks list this total at 43 points, while FanDuel and PointsBet have it at 43. PointsBet provides the most favorable odds for an Under bet at -110 compared to FanDuel’s -114.

Chargers-Broncos Over 39.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Broncos have been darlings for the Under all year. Their games have gone just 5-11 on Overs this season. But the story has been different in each of the past two weeks. The last two Denver games have exceeded 50 total points as the Broncos allowed 78 points to the Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City Chiefs.

The first matchup between Denver and L.A. finished as a 19-16 final in overtime, but lately, Denver seems to have mailed it in defensively as its miserable season nears its conclusion. The possibility looms of Chargers QB Justin Herbert sitting out if the game doesn’t impact the team’s playoff seed, but Chase Daniel is an experienced backup who could cut loose to lead the offense to a respectable showing.

Denver has averaged 22.5 points per game over its last four contests, an epiphany compared to where the Broncos had been previously. BetMGM and Caesars list the total at 40, so avoid those spots in favor of the 39.5-point offering at DraftKings, FanDuel and PointsBet.

Lions-Packers Under 49.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

If the Seattle Seahawks defeat the Rams on Sunday afternoon, the Detroit Lions won’t functionally have anything to play for on Sunday night. But even if the Lions aren’t playing to extend their season, the motivations of a Dan Campbell-led team should not be questioned in a rivalry environment.

The Packers rank third in the NFL in rush offense DVOA, suggesting a favorable matchup for the Green Bay offense given that Detroit lags in run defense. But the Lions have been known to occasionally shut down opposing running games, as they did in recent outings against the New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings.

Four of Detroit’s seven road games have fallen below 49.5 points, while Packers games against NFC North opponents this season have averaged 39.4 total points. The previous matchup between these two teams saw a 15-9 final score. Bet this Under at FanDuel, which is the only sportsbook on our board to list the number at 49.5 instead of 49.

NFL Over/Under picks made 1/4/2023 at 5:30 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Brenden Schaeffer

Brenden has covered the St. Louis Cardinals as a credentialed baseball writer for KMOV-TV since 2016. His sports writing has appeared in outlets including the Austin American-Statesman and Columbia Daily Tribune. Since 2021, Brenden has co-hosted 'The Big Show' during the afternoon drive for KTGR, the ESPN radio affiliate in Columbia, MO. He has appeared on radio stations around the country, including KMOX, and hosts a daily St. Louis Cardinals podcast. In the sports betting content space, Brenden has covered the NFL, college football, NBA, and college basketball for outlets including SBR since 2019. For his football handicapping, Brenden looks to target NFL player prop markets as well as sharp underdog lines in college football. Brenden looks to reference FanDuel for his sports betting articles because of its consistently competitive odds on parlays. FanDuel's boost offerings are also customer-friendly, and its odds on the NFL Same Game Parlay articles he's written for SBR have historically been consistently competitive compared to other books.