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NFL Over/Under Odds, Picks, Predictions for Week 17: Fade Public on Lofty Bills-Bengals Total

Brenden Schaeffer

Last Updated: December 29, 2022 4:17 AM EST • 2 min 43 sec read.

Justin Fields of the Chicago Bears celebrates a touchdown against the San Francisco 49ers at Soldier Field, and we offer our top Justin Fields player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds.
Justin Fields of the Chicago Bears celebrates a touchdown against the San Francisco 49ers at Soldier Field. Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images via AFP.

Personnel questions litter the NFL weekend as some teams may opt to rest their star players with the postseason looming. Can we avoid the uncertainty with our picks on the totals? Read on for our Week 17 Over/Under picks.

With so many questionable personnel situations around the NFL in Week 17, we’re highlighting situations that include motivated participants so as not to fall victim to a surprise inactive later in the week.

Here are our best NFL Over/Under picks for Week 17 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

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NFL Over/Under Picks for Week 17

NFL O/U Predictions

Bears-Lions Over 52 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Sam Darnold and the Carolina Panthers just shredded the Detroit Lions for 37 points. Zach Wilson threw for 317 yards against them before that.

Detroit’s defense is stopping absolutely nobody right now, yet the Chicago Bears actually have the lower-rated defense DVOA on the season. Chicago is dead-last in the league in the metric, with the Lions checking in at 28th.

The Lions and Bears have both had 10 out of 15 games (66%) go Over the total on the season, tying them with Philadelphia and Minnesota for the highest Over rate in the NFL. Their respective splits further cement the lean on this matchup, as the Over is 6-2 (75%) in Lions home games and 5-2 (71%) in Bears road games on the year.

With putrid defenses on either side, both Justin Fields and Jared Goff should have productive days in the dome environment on Sunday.

Both DraftKings and BetMGM are reasonable options for betting this Over, listing the total at 52 points with standard -110 odds. Avoid FanDuel and its 52.5-point total for this Over bet.

Vikings-Packers Over 48 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

With playoffs still possible for the Green Bay Packers, I’m anticipating a strong performance from Aaron Rodgers this week. Green Bay gets this game at home, where it has averaged a slightly higher scoring average in a disjointed season. Rodgers has looked better of late and should be able to exploit a Minnesota Vikings defense that ranks 22nd in Defense DVOA.

Though Minnesota road games have cleared the total only two times out of five on the year, the Over is 10-5 overall in Vikings games. The Vikings rank seventh in the league in scoring average and still post better than 22 points per game on the road. With how Justin Jefferson exploited the Green Bay secondary in the season opener, it’s hard to imagine the Vikings’  offense falling flat on Sunday.

DraftKings and BetMGM post the line at 48 points with standard -110 odds on the Over. Those are more attractive options for this wager than the 48.5-point line with -110 odds offered by FanDuel.

Bills-Bengals Under 49.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Given the quarterbacks involved, it’s understandable to see a lofty total for Buffalo Bills-Cincinnati Bengals on Monday night. But Buffalo games are 5-10 on Overs this season and Cincinnati games haven’t been much better for Over bettors at 5-9-1. This is a spot that screams to fade the public.

According to Pregame.com, the total opened at 49 points and has seen 93% of the money wagered come in on the Over. Yet, the number has barely budged to 49.5. Two of the top 10 scoring defenses in the NFL this season, the Bills and Bengals have combined to allow only 37.9 points per game to their opponents.

The large number here is trading on the promise of Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. If you follow the trends, you’ll realize that the shootout game script simply isn’t coming. DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM all list the total at 49.5 with identical -110 odds on Over.

NFL Over/Under picks made 12/29/2022 at 10:44 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Brenden Schaeffer
Since graduating from the University of Missouri in 2016, Brenden Schaeffer has covered the St. Louis Cardinals and Blues hockey as a writer for KMOV in St. Louis. He also co-hosts 'The Big Show' on KTGR radio in Columbia, Missouri. The show airs in afternoon drive, weekdays from 4-6 p.m. Brenden has contributed to SBR since 2021, providing insights on NFL, NCAAF, NCAAB, and the NBA. You can download his daily baseball podcast, B-Schaeff Daily, on Spotify or Apple podcasts, and you can find Brenden across social media @bschaeffer12.