NFL Odds & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Week 18
In the final week of the regular season, neither of the No. 1 seeds, three division titles, and two wild-card spots have been determined. Read on for our NFL best bets of Week 18 based on the top odds.
Damar Hamlin’s unfortunate injury put the Week 18 schedule in doubt with whether or not there would need to be any reshuffling of games. However, it appears all games will go off as planned initially, and just three games (Buccaneers-Falcons, Texans-Colts, Panthers-Saints) have no impact on the playoffs.
Here are our best NFL bets for Week 18 (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, BetRivers, and Caesars Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our NFL best bets.
NFL Schedule and Odds for Week 18
(odds via Caesars)
- Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
- Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-6)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons (-4)
- New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills (-7)
- Minnesota Vikings (-7.5) vs. Chicago Bears
- Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-7)
- Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos (-2)
- Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
- New York Jets (-1) vs. Miami Dolphins
- Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
- New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-14)
- Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)
- Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers (-14.5)
- Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)
- Dallas Cowboys (-7) vs. Washington Commanders
- Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers (-4.5)
NFL Best Bets for Week 18
- Spread: Raiders +9.5 (-110 via Caesars)
- Moneyline: Dolphins (+100 via FanDuel)
- Upset: Panthers (+160 via BetRivers)
- Prop: Trevor Lawrence Over 251.5 passing yards (-125 via BetMGM)
Week 18 NFL Top Picks
Spread: Raiders +9.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
From Weeks 14-16, Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr had a blitz QBR of 2 (worst in the NFL), 6.8 interception rate (worst), 24% off-target percentage (second-worst), and a 53% completion percentage (third-worst) among quarterbacks with at least two starts in that span. However, in one short week, Jarrett Stidham changed the outlook on the Raiders offense, becoming the second quarterback since 1950 with 350-plus passing yards and 3-plus touchdown passes in his first NFL start.
In addition, Stidham had five completions of 20-plus air yards against the San Francisco 49ers (second-most in an NFL game this season) and takes aim at a Kansas City Chiefs team that has beaten just one of its last five opponents by at least a touchdown.
Caesars is one of the few sportsbooks where one can find the Raiders at +9.5, and not have to pay up in juice, like FanDuel who charges -115 to back the underdogs.
Moneyline: Dolphins (+100) ⭐⭐⭐
From Weeks 1-12, the New York Jets went 7-4, largely because they averaged 20.1 points per game and had a +2 turnover margin. Since then, New York is 0-5 and has averaged 11.6 points per game with a -9 turnover margin, all of which are worst or tied for the worst in the league during that span.
Though in the midst of a losing streak of their own, Miami has been competitive, with four consecutive losses by six or fewer points. Meanwhile, New York has been eliminated from playoff contention for the 12th straight season. Regardless of the Dolphins' quarterback situation, they're the more motivated team, only needing a win and a New England Patriots loss to make the playoffs. They'll beat the Jets at home for the seventh consecutive time.
This line has swung wildly from the opening number of Miami -145, but we are more than happy to back the Dolphins at plus odds.
Upset: Panthers (+160) ⭐⭐⭐
The New Orleans Saints have allowed 12.7 points per game during a three-game winning streak, but all bets are off for how motivated the defense will be with this being their first game since being eliminated from playoff contention.
Entering Week 17, Carolina Panthers quarterback Sam Darnold had an 82 QBR in December when he was not pressured. In addition, Carolina is 6-3 in games when the team rushes for 100-plus yards and is 0-7 when rushing for fewer than 100 yards. Considering the Saints rank 22nd in the league with 127.9 rushing yards allowed per game, that should bode well for Carolina’s chances of success.
The Panthers are as low as +145 at DraftKings, so the +160 odds at BetRivers are the most enticing, as that is the sportsbook that has deviated the least from the opening +170 odds.
Prop: Trevor Lawrence Over 251.5 passing yards (-125) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has gone Over this projected total in two of three career starts against the Tennessee Titans, averaging 287.3 yards per game.
Since Week 9, on passes under 2.5 seconds, Lawrence has the fourth-highest QBR (84), third-best yards per attempt (7.1), and is tied for first with nine passing touchdowns. In addition, he is averaging the second-fastest time to throw over that span, which should negate Tennessee’s pass rush.
BetMGM is the place to go for Over backers, as Lawrence’s O/U is three yards lower than the 254.5 found at DraftKings.
NFL best bets made 1/6/2022 at 6:34 a.m. ET.
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- PointsBet: Earn Five First Bet Offer of Up to $100 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
- BetMGM: Get a First Bet Offer of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review
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