NFL MVP Odds After Week 18 | Wild Swing Has Stafford Leapfrog Maye as Favorite

Unexpected drama has occurred in the MVP odds race, with Matthew Stafford improbably jumping ahead of Drake Maye as the favorite to close the 2025 regular season. 

Not only was Maye the clear MVP favorite entering Week 18, but he remained decidedly ahead of Stafford entering the fourth quarter.

Stafford, 14 years Maye's elder, showcased every morsel of experience and character in his season finale, tossing 4 TD passes for the fourth time this season. It has thrown the MVP race into a state of unknown, with a photo finish required to decide who will get the last laugh. 

On to you, MVP voters. 

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🪖 Maye finishes with stress-free win over Dolphins  

Maye had an epic statistical performance in Week 17, turning the MVP odds race on its head. He threw five TDs and 256 yards while completing 19-of-21 passes in just over a half of football, which set him up nicely entering Week 17 Monday Night Football.

We all know what happened with Stafford in Atlanta on that fateful evening. His catastrophic first half put Maye in the driver's seat, which is where he remained entering the fourth quarter in Week 18. 

Maye's efficient performance at home against the Miami Dolphins, where he led his team to a stress-free 38-10 victory that clinched the No. 2 seed in the AFC, was not enough to hold off a rampant Stafford.

Maye finished the game with 128 passing yards and a TD pass. However, due to Stafford's demonstrative display against Arizona, the sophomore is no longer the MVP odds favorite at FanDuel, where his odds lengthened from -600 to -110. That's an implied probability shift of 85.71% to 52.38%.

If he wins, Maye, 23, will become the youngest winner since the 22-year-old Lamar Jackson won in 2019. Only four others, Walter Payton, Dan Marino, Patrick Mahomes, and Jim Brown (who won it twice), won MVP at 23 years old or younger.

That, however, is much more unlikely than it was before the start of a wild and whacky Week 18. 

🐏 Stafford puts on show to leapfrog Maye as MVP favorite

Stafford quickly put his nightmare in Atlanta behind him, making the decision for MVP voters immeasurably more challenging.

The 37-year-old showed his class and resilience in throwing four TD passes and no interceptions in a 37-20 win over the Arizona Cardinals.

He finished the season with 46 TD passes, 12 ahead of second-place Jared Goff.

That's the most since Aaron Rodgers threw 48 in 2020. Despite Stafford's impressive total, Payton Manning's record of 55, set in 2013 with the Denver Broncos, was never under threat. 

Thanks to Stafford's emphatic curtain call, his MVP odds at FanDuel shortened from +230 to -120, an implied probability shift of 30.30% to 54.55%. He is, at least at time of writing, the MVP favorite.