Lions vs. Packers SGP Odds, Picks, Predictions Week 18: Green Bay to Lock Up Playoff Berth
The Green Bay Packers have won four straight games and can clinch a playoff spot with one more victory. But the Detroit Lions might be fighting for their season, too. Here are our top Lions vs. Packers SGP NFL picks based on the top odds.
It’s a waiting game for the Lions (8-8) as they need some help from the Los Angeles Rams in order for Detroit’s stakes to remain meaningful on Sunday night.
The Packers (8-8) know that their goal is simple: win and you’re in. Can Green Bay do it to turn around its season following a ghastly 4-8 start?
Here are our best Lions vs. Packers NFL SGP picks (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
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Lions vs. Packers SGP Picks Week 18
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Lions vs. Packers Odds
SGP Predictions for Lions vs. Packers
Packers ML (-230) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
A Seattle win in the afternoon ends Detroit’s hopes for the playoffs before its game ever gets started Sunday night. This pick isn’t about the Lions’ motivations, though. I just believe the Packers are better positioned to win this game to extend their season.
The Packers have a 5-3 outright record at Lambeau Field this season and have won four straight games heading into Week 18. The Lions are 3-4 in road games and have scored around 14 fewer points per road game compared to their robust offensive performance at home.
Green Bay hasn’t lost to the Lions at home since 2018 - and that was in a game where it rested its starters. DraftKings offers the Packers ML at -230 for SGPs whereas FanDuel lists it at -240.
Under 49.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Detroit boasts the fifth-best scoring average in the NFL this season at 27.1 points per game, but that gaudy number has been buoyed primarily by an otherworldly offensive efficiency at home. Inside the comfort of their dome in Detroit, the Lions have posted the best home scoring average in the NFL at 33.1 points per game.
But on the road, the Lions average just 19.3 PPG. Of Detroit’s five games that finished below 49.5 total points, four of those games came on the road. The one exception was the previous meeting between the Lions and Packers in Detroit, which finished with just 24 total points and a 15-9 final.
The Packers average 22.1 PPG. In a script that could be run-heavy, we could see longer drives that limit the number of possessions. The Green Bay offense is explosive enough to exploit the Lions’ inconsistent defense, but given the potentially significant stakes on the line for both sides, we could see another tight game between division rivals.
Dillon Over 59.5 rushing yards (+215) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The FanDuel line for AJ Dillon’s rushing yardage sits at 42.5 with standard -110 odds. Because we went with the moneyline instead of the point spread on our Packers pick, we’re looking to be aggressive with this play to juice up our combined parlays odds. DraftKings provides the opportunity with bold alternate rushing line options.
The Packers running back has cleared 59.5 rushing yards only five times on the season but has drawn double-digit carries in 12 games. As the more bruising runner in the Green Bay backfield duo, we like Dillon to get his fair share of opportunities In the cold weather against a Detroit run defense that allows 149.3 rushing yards per game, 29th in the NFL this season.
We’re maxing out with the highest Dillon rushing line offered by DraftKings as 59.5 yards feels like a number that both Dillon and Aaron Jones could hit with ease in a script that sees the Packers win on Sunday night.
Lions-Packers SGP picks made 1/8/2023 at 2:10 p.m. ET.
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