Justin Jefferson Player Prop Picks, Predictions Wild Card Weekend: Will Jefferson Torch Giants Again?

Get our best Justin Jefferson player prop picks and predictions!

Mike Spector

Last updated: January 15, 2023 9:03 AM EST • 3 min read

Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson led the NFL in receiving yards and brings that elite production to a matchup against the New York Giants for the second time in four weeks. Read on for our top Justin Jefferson prop picks.

Jefferson led the NFL with 1,809 receiving yards, the sixth-most in league history. In the process, he became the youngest player ever to lead in receptions (128) and yards (per ESPN). The Vkings wideout torched the Giants for a 12-133-1 stat line in Week 16. Is he in for another big day?

Here are our best Justin Jefferson Wild Card Weekend player prop picks (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and BetRivers Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

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Justin Jefferson Player Prop Picks for Wild Card Weekend

Justin Jefferson Over 6.5 receptions vs. Giants (-152 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐
Justin Jefferson Under 95.5 receiving yards vs. Giants (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Justin Jefferson to score a touchdown (+110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐

New York Giants vs. Minnesota Vikings Odds

Justin Jefferson Player Props

Justin Jefferson Over 6.5 receptions vs. Giants (-152) ⭐⭐⭐

Per Justin Penik on Twitter, Jefferson was held to fewer than 50 receiving yards receiving in five games. In three of those, he had average cushions of 2.5 yards (Detroit), 4.6 yards (Jets), and 4.3 yards (Green Bay). His overall average at the line of scrimmage was 5.4, but the Giants gave him a 7.1 cushion in Week 16.

Even if the Giants tighten up their coverage on Jefferson, expect Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell to get the ball in his best playmaker's hands early and often, even if that means screen passes.

BetRivers charges a steep -152 price to back the Over, but it's still the best of all its competitors, and the 6.5 line is better value than the 7.5 O/U at PointsBet. This is a three-star play, as Jefferson had 7+ receptions in 10 of 17 games this year, and his 196 catches through the first two seasons are tied for the most all-time.

Justin Jefferson Under 95.5 receiving yards vs. Giants ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins targeted Jefferson and tight end T.J. Hockenson 32 times in their first meeting with New York, and the Giants broke up one of those passes. Jefferson was busy toasting Giants No. 2 cornerback Fabian Moreau and slot corner Darnay Holmes. Jefferson caught seven of nine targets for 78 yards and a touchdown with Moreau covering. Holmes didn't do much better, allowing two catches on three targets for 21 yards.

However, this is a four-star play as the Giants could have top cornerback Adoree' Jackson healthy, who brings six games of playoff experience with him. In addition, safety Xavier McKinney missed the first matchup with a broken hand, but his return will limit Jefferson's big-play ability on the back end. Play this line down to 90.5, as Minnesota could be without two offensive line starters.

The Vikes allow 47 sacks (an NFL eighth-most) and 13 in their final three games. New York's pressure should limit Minnesota's passing attack.

Justin Jefferson to score a touchdown vs. Giants (+110) ⭐⭐

Jefferson found the endzone against the Giants in Week 16, but this is our least favorite play of the three, as touchdowns are volatile, and he scored in seven of 17 contests. However, those backing this wager should do so at FanDuel, as the +110 odds offered are much more appealing than the -125 odds elsewhere.

Justin Jefferson player prop picks made 1/14/2023 at 7:25 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”